| 1. |
- Bass, Nathan Charles, et al.
(författare)
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Residency and movement patterns of adult Port Jackson sharks (Heterodontus portusjacksoni) at a breeding aggregation site
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Fish Biology. - : Wiley. - 0022-1112 .- 1095-8649. ; 99:4, s. 1455-1466
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Examining the movement ecology of mesopredators is fundamental to developing an understanding of their biology, ecology and behaviour, as well as the communities and ecosystems they influence. The limited research on the residency and movements of benthic marine mesopredators has primarily used visual tags, which do not allow for the efficient and accurate monitoring of individual space use. In this study, the authors investigated the residency and movement patterns of Port Jackson sharks Heterodontus portusjacksoni (Meyer 1793) at a breeding aggregation site in Jervis Bay, south-eastern Australia, using passive acoustic telemetry to further our understanding of the movement ecology of these important mesopredators. Between 2012 and 2014, individuals were tagged with acoustic transmitters, and their residency and movements within the bay were monitored for up to 4 years. H. portusjacksoni showed strong preferences for particular reefs within and between breeding seasons. Males had significantly higher residency indices at their favoured sites relative to females, suggesting that males may be engaging in territorial behaviour. Conversely, female H. portusjacksoni exhibited higher roaming indices relative to males indicating that females may move between sites to assess males. Finally, H. portusjacksoni showed temporal variation in movements between reefs with individuals typically visiting more reefs at night relative to the day, dusk and dawn corresponding with their nocturnal habits.
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| 3. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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