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- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 3. |
- Glasbey, JC, et al.
(författare)
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- 2021
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Bravo, L, et al.
(författare)
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- 2021
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 6. |
- Tabiri, S, et al.
(författare)
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- 2021
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 10. |
- Anstee, Quentin M., et al.
(författare)
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Genome-wide association study of non-alcoholic fatty liver and steatohepatitis in a histologically-characterised cohort
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Hepatology. - : Elsevier. - 0168-8278 .- 1600-0641. ; 73:3, s. 505-515
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Genetic factors associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) remain incompletely understood. To date, most GWAS studies have adopted radiologically assessed hepatic triglyceride content as reference phenotype and so cannot address steatohepatitis or fibrosis. We describe a genome-wide association study (GWAS) encompassing the full spectrum of histologically characterized NAFLD.METHODS: The GWAS involved 1483 European NAFLD cases and 17781 genetically-matched population controls. A replication cohort of 559 NAFLD cases and 945 controls was genotyped to confirm signals showing genome-wide or close to genome-wide significance.RESULTS: Case-control analysis identified signals showing p-values ≤ 5 x 10-8 at four locations (chromosome (chr) 2 GCKR/C2ORF16; chr4 HSD17B13; chr19 TM6SF2; chr22 PNPLA3) together with two other signals with p<1 x10-7 (chr1 near LEPR and chr8 near IDO2/TC1). Case-only analysis of quantitative traits steatosis, disease activity score, NAS and fibrosis showed that the PNPLA3 signal (rs738409) was genome-wide significantly associated with steatosis, fibrosis and NAS score and identified a new signal (PYGO1 rs62021874) with close to genome-wide significance for steatosis (p=8.2 x 10-8). Subgroup case-control analysis for NASH confirmed the PNPLA3 signal. The chr1 LEPR SNP also showed genome-wide significance for this phenotype. Considering the subgroup with advanced fibrosis (≥F3), the signals on chromosomes 2, 19 and 22 remained genome-wide significant. With the exception of GCKR/C2ORF16, the genome-wide significant signals replicated.CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms PNPLA3 as a risk factor for the full histological spectrum of NAFLD at genome-wide significance levels, with important contributions from TM6SF2 and HSD17B13. PYGO1 is a novel steatosis modifier, suggesting relevance of Wnt signalling pathways in NAFLD pathogenesis.
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