| 1. |
- Alekseeva, I., et al.
(författare)
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Reconstruction of historic changes of the Aral Sea water budget and sea-groundwater interactions by a coupled 3D sea-ice-groundwater model
- 2007
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 9, 10629, 2007.
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- A 3D coupled sea-ice-groundwater model has been developed and applied for an estimation of the water balance and groundwater-seawater interactions in the shrinking Aral Sea. The model developed combines the complete 3D sea-ice hydrodynamics model ECOSMO, including a mass and energy conserving wetting and drying scheme, and a simple groundwater model based on changes in hydraulic gradient in response to the sea surface variability. During the simulation period 1979-1993, the model successfully reproduced the rapid Aral Sea level drop, surface area decrease, coastline position changes and salinization. Model predictions of evaporation and groundwater inflow were also consistent with independent estimations. Model results indicated that within the 15 years period of simulations the net groundwater inflow to the Aral Sea might have increased by 10% or more as a direct effect of the sea level lowering.Furthermore, model scenario tests were carried out to examine effects of salinity on sea hydrodynamics and to estimate non-linear feedbacks of the sea thermo- and hydrodynamics, air-sea turbulent fluxes and the sea water balance. It was shown that a neglect of salinity in the sea hydro- and thermo dynamics resulted in considerable differences in the Aral Sea winter thermal conditions, which in turn influenced the air-sea exchange in the following spring and summer. As a result, the zero salinity scenario predicted higher evaporation rates and an considerably accelerated sea level lowering by up to 2 cm/yr, in comparison with the basic model run. An indirect influence of the fresh groundwater inflow in terms of water balance has been identified as less significant, however it was shown that the fresh groundwater input could influence the Aral Sea salinity distribution considerably since 1990’s.
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| 2. |
- Alekseeva, Irina, et al.
(författare)
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Reproducing the Aral Sea water budget and sea-groundwater dynamics between 1979 and 1993 using a coupled 3-D sea-ice-groundwater model
- 2009
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Ingår i: Journal of Marine Systems. - : Elsevier. - 0924-7963. ; 76:3, s. 296-309
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We have developed the 3-D sea-ice model, ECOSMO, into a coupled sea-ice–groundwater model and investigated the factors that may have influenced the groundwater–seawater interactions and the water balance of the shrinking Aral Sea. During the simulation period, 1979–1993, the model successfully reproduced the rapid Aral Sea level drop, surface area decrease, coastline position changes and increasing salinization of the Aral Sea. Model predictions of evaporation and groundwater inflow were also consistent with independent estimations. Model results indicated that the net groundwater inflow to the Aral Sea may have increased by 10% or more as a direct effect of the sea level lowering. Furthermore, model scenario tests showed that in comparison with a basic scenario, in which salinity effects were accounted for, not accounting for such effects resulted in considerable changes in ice formation and winter thermal conditions, which in turn influenced the thermo- and hydrodynamics and fresh water air-sea fluxes in the Aral Sea. As a result, the zero-salinity scenario predicted higher evaporation rates and an accelerated sea level lowering by up to 2 cm/yr, in comparison with the basic scenario. Model results showed that increased groundwater inflow to the sea may have influenced the Aral Sea salinity distribution since the 1990's. Our results emphasise the importance of taking into account both baroclinic hydrodynamics, sea-ice dynamics and as well as potentially increased future groundwater-related salinity effects in order to accurately estimate the Aral Sea water balance. More generally, models that can handle such highly dynamic systems may have a realistic potential for making detailed assessments of sea characteristics under the influence of climate and hydrological cycle changes.
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| 3. |
- Baresel, Christian, et al.
(författare)
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Diffuse subsurface zinc loads from mining areas in the Dalälven River Basin, Sweden
- 2009
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Ingår i: Hydrology Research. - : IWA Publishing. - 1998-9563 .- 0029-1277 .- 2224-7955. ; 40:5, s. 445-453
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The zinc load from the Dalalven River to the Baltic Sea is greater than for any other watercourse in Sweden. This paper investigates zinc mass flows into and through the Dalalven River from major mining areas within its drainage basin. Reported zinc mass flow data for this river are re-analyzed using an input-output flow analysis approach. Results show major inconsistencies in previous data interpretations which totally neglected possible zinc mass load contributions from the groundwater system to the river. This paper quantifies significant subsurface zinc load contributions that are consistent with all independently available data. Furthermore, a possible explanation for why these subsurface contributions may have been missed in previous studies and by the prevailing Swedish environmental monitoring system is provided. The study indicates that the input-output flow analysis approach may be generally useful for identifying and quantifying diffuse, unmonitored and uncertain pollutant load contributions from ground- to surface water systems.
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| 4. |
- Baresel, Christian, 1975-
(författare)
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Environmental management of water systems under uncertainty
- 2007
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Hydrological drainage/river basins constitute highly heterogeneous systems of coupled natural and anthropogenic water and pollutant flows across political, national and international boundaries. These flows need to be appropriately understood, quantified and communicated to stakeholders, in order to appropriately guide environmental water system management. In this thesis, various uncertainties about water and pollutant flows in drainage/river basins and their implications for effective and efficient water pollution abatement are investigated, in particular for mine-related heavy metal loadings in the Swedish Dalälven River basin and for nitrogen loadings in the Swedish Norrström drainage basin. Economic cost-minimization modeling is used to investigate the implications of pollutant load uncertainties for the cost-efficiency of catchment-scale abatement of water pollution. Results indicate that effective and efficient pollution abatement requires explicit consideration of uncertainties about pollution sources, diffuse contributions of the subsurface water system to downstream pollutant observations in surface waters, and downstream effects of different possible measures to reduce water pollution. In many cases, downstream load abatement measures must be used, in addition to source abatement, in order to reduce not only expected, but also uncertainties around expected pollutant loads. Effective and efficient environmental management of water systems must generally also consider the entire catchments of these systems, rather than focusing only on discrete pollutant sources. The thesis presents some relatively simple, catchment-scale pollutant flow analysis tools that may be used to decrease uncertainties about unmonitored water and pollutant flows and subsurface pollutant accumulation-depletion and diffuse loading to downstream waters.
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| 5. |
- Baresel, Christian, et al.
(författare)
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Estimating subsurface nitrogen accumulation–depletion in catchments by input–output flow analysis
- 2006
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Ingår i: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth. - : Elsevier BV. - 1474-7065 .- 1873-5193. ; 31:17, s. 1030-1037
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We use input-output analysis of nitrogen flows between various sources-sectors and natural waters in the Swedish Norrstrom drainage basin for investigating and bounding the implication range of some uncertainty sources for results of subsurface nitrogen accumulation-depletion in this basin. We quantify different possible base and extreme assumptions of nitrogen discharges and transport pathways from agriculture to surface and groundwater in the basin. The results are robust in showing considerable nitrogen accumulation-depletion flow interactions taking place between the basin's mobile water and accumulated nitrogen pools in soils, sediments and/or relatively immobile subsurface water zones for all different scenario assumptions. Similar scenario robustness is also found in resulting relative contributions of different active nitrogen source-sectors to nitrogen flows in natural water systems. In the Norrstrom basin, and possibly more generally, nitrogen accumulation-depletion flows to and from accumulated legacies for the future or from the past appear therefore to be more important for water quality than current nitrogen discharges from active source-sectors.
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| 6. |
- Baresel, Christian, et al.
(författare)
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Novel Quantification of Coupled Natural and Cross-Sectoral Water and Nutrient/Pollutant Flows for Environmental Management.
- 2005
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Ingår i: Environmental Science and Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 39:16, s. 6182-6190
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Human water use and anthropogenic water pollution and ecosystem deterioration have increased so much that it is now a strategic challenge to maximize benefits from various possible water uses, while ensuring that basic human needs are met and the environment is protected. We propose and develop a novel use of input-output flow analysis as a relatively simple, compact and powerful tool for quantification of coupled natural and cross-sectoral flows of water, nutrients, and pollutants in catchments. The tool quantifies implications of various environmental regulation and management scenarios for both natural water systems and engineered-economic systems and sectors that use and impact natural waters for meeting human needs. Specific case study application to water and nitrogen flows in the Swedish Norrstrom drainage basin indicates considerable nitrogen load contributions to surface and coastal waters from slow groundwater flow paths and legacies of accumulated nitrogen in subsurface and immobile water pools. This implies that effective nitrogen load abatement cannot focus only on active sources but must also include downstream measures, which can capture and abate nitrogen/pollutant loading from different types of known and yet unknown point and diffuse sources within associated catchments.
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| 7. |
- Baresel, Christian, et al.
(författare)
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The influence of metal source uncertainty on cost-effective allocation of mine water pollution abatement in catchments
- 2006
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4797 .- 1095-8630. ; 78:2, s. 138-148
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In mine water pollution abatement, it is commonly assumed that known mine waste sites are the major pollution sources, thus neglecting the possibility of significant contribution from other old and diffuse sources within a catchment. We investigate the influence of different types of pollution source uncertainty on cost-effective allocation of abatement measures for mine water pollution. A catchment-scale cost-minimization model is developed and applied to the catchment of the river Dalalven, Sweden, in order to exemplify important effects of such source uncertainty. Results indicate that, if the pollution distribution between point and diffuse sources is partly unknown, downstream abatement measures, such as constructed wetlands, at given compliance boundaries are often cost-effective. If downstream abatement measures are not practically feasible, the pollution source distribution between point and diffuse mine water sources is critical for cost-effective solutions to abatement measure allocation in catchments. In contrast, cost-effective solutions are relatively insensitive to uncertainty in total pollutant discharge from mine water sources.
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| 8. |
- Baresel, Christian, et al.
(författare)
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Uncertainty-Accounting Environmental Policy and Management of Water Systems
- 2007
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Ingår i: Environmental Science & Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 41:10, s. 3653–3659-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Environmental policies for water quality and ecosystemmanagement do not commonly require explicit stochasticaccounts of uncertainty and risk associated with thequantification and prediction of waterborne pollutant loadsand abatement effects. In this study, we formulate andinvestigate a possible environmental policy that does requirean explicit stochastic uncertainty account. We compareboth the environmental and economic resource allocationperformance of such an uncertainty-accounting environmentalpolicy with that of deterministic, risk-prone and riskaverseenvironmental policies under a range of differenthypothetical, yet still possible, scenarios. The comparisonindicates that a stochastic uncertainty-accountingpolicy may perform better than deterministic policies overa range of different scenarios. Even in the absence ofreliable site-specific data, reported literature values appearto be useful for such a stochastic account of uncertainty.
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| 9. |
- Bishop, Kevin, et al.
(författare)
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Nature as the "Natural" Goal for Water Management : A Conversation
- 2009
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Netherlands. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; Volume 38:Issue 4
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The goals for water-quality and ecosystem integrity are often defined relative to "natural" reference conditions in many water-management systems, including the European Union Water Framework Directive. This paper examines the difficulties created for water management by using "natural" as the goal. These difficulties are articulated from different perspectives in an informal (fictional) conversation that takes place after a workshop on reference conditions in water-resources management. The difficulties include defining the natural state and modeling how a system might be progressed toward the natural, as well as the feasibility and desirability of restoring a natural state. The paper also considers the appropriateness for developing countries to adopt the use of natural as the goal for water management. We conclude that failure to critically examine the complexities of having "natural" as the goal will compromise the ability to manage the issues that arise in real basins by not making the ambiguities associated with this "natural" goal explicit. This is unfortunate both for the western world that has embraced this model of "natural as the goal" and for the developing world in so far as they are encouraged to adopt this model.
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| 10. |
- Björck, S, et al.
(författare)
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Uttalande från klimatgruppen inom akademiens klass för geovetenskaper angående Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
- 2007
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Annan publikation (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Björck S., Backman J., Bengtsson S., Destouni G., Rodhe H., Uttalande från klimatgruppen inom akademiens klass för geovetenskaper angående Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (Statement on Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis; in Swedish), Climate Group of the Class of Geosciences at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 5 June, 2007.
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