| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Cirulli, Elizabeth T., et al.
(författare)
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A Missense Variant in PTPN22 is a Risk Factor for Drug-induced Liver Injury
- 2019
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Ingår i: Gastroenterology. - : W B SAUNDERS CO-ELSEVIER INC. - 0016-5085 .- 1528-0012. ; 156:6, s. 1707-1716
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND & AIMS: We performed genetic analyses of a multiethnic cohort of patients with idiosyncratic drug-induced liver injury (DILI) to identify variants associated with susceptibility.METHODS: We performed a genome-wide association study of 2048 individuals with DILI (cases) and 12,429 individuals without (controls). Our analysis included subjects of European (1806 cases and 10,397 controls), African American (133 cases and 1,314 controls), and Hispanic (109 cases and 718 controls) ancestry. We analyzed DNA from 113 Icelandic cases and 239,304 controls to validate our findings.RESULTS: We associated idiosyncratic DILI with rs2476601, a nonsynonymous polymorphism that encodes a substitution of tryptophan with arginine in the protein tyrosine phosphatase, nonreceptor type 22 gene (PTPN22) (odds ratio [OR] 1.44; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28-1.62; P = 1.2 x 10(-9) and replicated the finding in the validation set (OR 1.48; 95% CI 1.09-1.99; P =.01). The minor allele frequency showed the same effect size (OR > 1) among ethnic groups. The strongest association was with amoxicillin and clavulanate-associated DILI in persons of European ancestry (OR 1.62; 95% CI 1.32-1.98; P = 4.0 x 10(-6); allele frequency = 13.3%), but the polymorphism was associated with DILI of other causes (OR 1.37; 95% CI 1.21-1.56; P = 1.5 x 10(-6); allele frequency = 11.5%). Among amoxicillin-and clavulanate-associated cases of European ancestry, rs2476601 doubled the risk for DILI among those with the HLA risk alleles A* 02: 01 and DRB1* 15: 01.CONCLUSIONS: In a genome-wide association study, we identified rs2476601 in PTPN22 as a non-HLA variant that associates with risk of liver injury caused by multiple drugs and validated our finding in a separate cohort. This variant has been associated with increased risk of autoimmune diseases, providing support for the concept that alterations in immune regulation contribute to idiosyncratic DILI.
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| 5. |
- Nicoletti, Paola, et al.
(författare)
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Association of Liver Injury From Specific Drugs, or Groups of Drugs, With Polymorphisms in HLA and Other Genes in a Genome-Wide Association Study
- 2017
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Ingår i: Gastroenterology. - : W B SAUNDERS CO-ELSEVIER INC. - 0016-5085 .- 1528-0012. ; 152:5, s. 1078-1089
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND & AIMS: We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify genetic risk factors for druginduced liver injury (DILI) from licensed drugs without previously reported genetic risk factors. METHODS: We performed a GWAS of 862 persons with DILI and 10,588 population-matched controls. The first set of cases was recruited before May 2009 in Europe (n = 137) and the United States (n = 274). The second set of cases were identified from May 2009 through May 2013 from international collaborative studies performed in Europe, the United States, and South America. For the GWAS, we included only cases with patients of European ancestry associated with a particular drug (but not flucloxacillin or amoxicillin-clavulanate). We used DNA samples from all subjects to analyze HLA genes and single nucleotide polymorphisms. After the discovery analysis was concluded, we validated our findings using data from 283 European patients with diagnosis of DILI associated with various drugs. RESULTS: We associated DILI with rs114577328 (a proxy for A* 33: 01 a HLA class I allele; odds ratio [OR], 2.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9 - 3.8; P = 2.4 x 10(-8)) and with rs72631567 on chromosome 2 (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.6 - 2.5; P = 9.7 x 10(-9)). The association with A* 33: 01 was mediated by large effects for terbinafine-, fenofibrate-, and ticlopidine-related DILI. The variant on chromosome 2 was associated with DILI from a variety of drugs. Further phenotypic analysis indicated that the association between DILI and A* 33: 01 was significant genome wide for cholestatic and mixed DILI, but not for hepatocellular DILI; the polymorphism on chromosome 2 was associated with cholestatic and mixed DILI as well as hepatocellular DILI. We identified an association between rs28521457 (within the lipopolysaccharide-responsive vesicle trafficking, beach and anchor containing gene) and only hepatocellular DILI (OR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.6 - 2.7; P = 4.8 x 10(-9)). We did not associate any specific drug classes with genetic polymorphisms, except for statin-associated DILI, which was associated with rs116561224 on chromosome 18 (OR, 5.4; 95% CI, 3.0 - 9.5; P = 7.1 x 10(-9)). We validated the association between A* 33: 01 terbinafine-and sertraline-induced DILI. We could not validate the association between DILI and rs72631567, rs28521457, or rs116561224. CONCLUSIONS: In a GWAS of persons of European descent with DILI, we associated HLA-A* 33: 01 with DILI due to terbinafine and possibly fenofibrate and ticlopidine. We identified polymorphisms that appear to be associated with DILI from statins, as well as 2 non-drug-specific risk factors.
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| 6. |
- Nicoletti, Paola, et al.
(författare)
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Drug-Induced Liver Injury due to Flucloxacillin : Relevance of Multiple Human Leukocyte Antigen Alleles
- 2019
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Ingår i: Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0009-9236 .- 1532-6535. ; 106:1, s. 245-253
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Some patients prescribed flucloxacillin (similar to 0.01%) develop drug-induced liver injury (DILI). HLA-B*57:01 is an established genetic risk factor for flucloxacillin DILI. To consolidate this finding, identify additional genetic factors, and assess relevance of risk factors for flucloxacillin DILI in relation to DILI due to other penicillins, we performed a genomewide association study involving 197 flucloxacillin DILI cases and 6,835 controls. We imputed single-nucleotide polymorphism and human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genotypes. HLA-B*57:01 was the major risk factor (allelic odds ratio (OR) = 36.62; P = 2.67 x 10(-97)). HLA-B*57:03 also showed an association (OR = 79.21; P = 1.2 x 10(-6)). Within the HLA-B protein sequence, imputation showed valine(97), common to HLA-B*57:01 and HLA-B*57:03, had the largest effect (OR = 38.1; P = 9.7 x 10(-97)). We found no HLA-B*57 association with DILI due to other isoxazolyl penicillins (n = 6) or amoxicillin (n = 15) and no significant non-HLA signals for any penicillin-related DILI.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Safreed-Harmon, Kelly, et al.
(författare)
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The Consensus Hepatitis C Cascade of Care : standardized reporting to monitor progress toward elimination
- 2019
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Ingår i: Clinical Infectious Diseases. - : Oxford University Press. - 1058-4838 .- 1537-6591. ; 69:12, s. 2218-2227
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cascade-of-care (CoC) monitoring is an important component of the response to the global hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic. CoC metrics can be used to communicate in simple terms the extent to which national and subnational governments are advancing on key targets, and CoC findings can inform strategic decision-making regarding how to maximize the progression of HCV-infected individuals to diagnosis, treatment and cure. The value of reporting would be enhanced if reporting entities utilized a standardized approach for generating their CoCs. We have described the Consensus HCV CoC that we developed to address this need and have presented findings from Denmark, Norway and Sweden, where it was piloted. We encourage the uptake of the Consensus HCV CoC as a global instrument for facilitating clear and consistent reporting via the World Health Organization (WHO) viral hepatitis monitoring platform and ensuring the accurate monitoring of progress toward WHO's 2030 hepatitis C elimination targets.
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