| 1. |
- Almenberg, Johan, et al.
(author)
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Do More Expensive Wines Taste Better? Evidence from a Large Sample of Blind Tastings
- 2018
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In: World Scientific Reference on Handbook of the Economics of Wine, Volume 1: Prices, Finance, and Expert Opinion. - : WORLD SCIENTIFIC. - 2010-1732. - 9789813232730 ; , s. 535-545
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Book chapter (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Individuals who are unaware of the price do not derive more enjoyment from more expensive wine. In a sample of more than 6,000 blind tastings, we find that the correlation between price and overall rating is small and negative, suggesting that individuals on average enjoy more expensive wines slightly less. For individuals with wine training, however, we find indications of a non-negative relationship between price and enjoyment. Our results are robust to the inclusion of individual fixed effects, and are not driven by outliers: when omitting the top and bottom deciles of the price distribution, our qualitative results are strengthened, and the statistical significance is improved further. These findings suggest that non-expert wine consumers should not anticipate greater enjoyment of the intrinsic qualities of a wine simply because it is expensive or is appreciated by experts.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Bonnier, Evelina, et al.
(author)
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Exposure to half-dressed women and economic behavior
- 2019
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In: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. - : Elsevier BV. - 0167-2681 .- 1879-1751. ; 168, s. 393-418
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Images of half-dressed women are ubiquitous in advertising and popular culture. Yet little is known about the potential impacts of such images on economic decision making. We randomize 648 participants of both genders to advertising images including either women in bikini or underwear, fully dressed women, or no women, and examine the effects on risk taking, willingness to compete and math performance in a lab experiment. We find no treatment effects on any outcome measure for women. For men, our results indicate that men take more risk after having been exposed to images of half-dressed women compared to no women.
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| 4. |
- Camerer, C. F., et al.
(author)
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Evaluating replicability of laboratory experiments in economics
- 2016
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In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 351:6280, s. 1433-1436
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The replicability of some scientific findings has recently been called into question. To contribute data about replicability in economics, we replicated 18 studies published in the American Economic Review and the Quarterly Journal of Economics between 2011 and 2014. All of these replications followed predefined analysis plans that weremade publicly available beforehand, and they all have a statistical power of at least 90% to detect the original effect size at the 5% significance level. We found a significant effect in the same direction as in the original study for 11 replications (61%); on average, the replicated effect size is 66% of the original. The replicability rate varies between 67% and 78% for four additional replicability indicators, including a prediction market measure of peer beliefs.
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| 5. |
- Dreber Almenberg, Anna, et al.
(author)
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Using prediction markets to forecast research evaluations
- 2015
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In: Royal Society Open Science. - : Royal Society, The: Open Access / Royal Society. - 2054-5703. ; 2:10
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The 2014 Research Excellence Framework (REF2014) was conducted to assess the quality of research carried out at higher education institutions in the UK over a 6 year period. However, the process was criticized for being expensive and bureaucratic, and it was argued that similar information could be obtained more simply from various existing metrics. We were interested in whether a prediction market on the outcome of REF2014 for 33 chemistry departments in the UK would provide information similar to that obtained during the REF2014 process. Prediction markets have become increasingly popular as a means of capturing what is colloquially known as the 'wisdom of crowds', and enable individuals to trade 'bets' on whether a specific outcome will occur or not. These have been shown to be successful at predicting various outcomes in a number of domains (e.g. sport, entertainment and politics), but have rarely been tested against outcomes based on expert judgements such as those that formed the basis of REF2014.
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| 6. |
- Forsell, Eskil, et al.
(author)
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Predicting replication outcomes in the Many Labs 2 study
- 2019
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In: Journal of Economic Psychology. - : Elsevier. - 1872-7719 .- 0167-4870. ; 75:Part A SI
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Understanding and improving reproducibility is crucial for scientific progress. Prediction markets and related methods of eliciting peer beliefs are promising tools to predict replication outcomes. We invited researchers in the field of psychology to judge the replicability of 24 studies replicated in the large scale Many Labs 2 project. We elicited peer beliefs in prediction markets and surveys about two replication success metrics: the probability that the replication yields a statistically significant effect in the original direction (p < 0.001), and the relative effect size of the replication. The prediction markets correctly predicted 75% of the replication outcomes, and were highly correlated with the replication outcomes. Survey beliefs were also significantly correlated with replication outcomes, but had larger prediction errors. The prediction markets for relative effect sizes attracted little trading and thus did not work well. The survey beliefs about relative effect sizes performed better and were significantly correlated with observed relative effect sizes. The results suggest that replication outcomes can be predicted and that the elicitation of peer beliefs can increase our knowledge about scientific reproducibility and the dynamics of hypothesis testing.
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| 7. |
- Isaksson, Siri, et al.
(author)
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Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research
- 2015
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In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - : National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 112:50, s. 15343-15347
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants' individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a "statistically significant" finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications.
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| 8. |
- Altmejd, Adam, et al.
(author)
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Predicting the replicability of social science lab experiments
- 2019
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In: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 14:12
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We measure how accurately replication of experimental results can be predicted by black-box statistical models. With data from four large-scale replication projects in experimental psychology and economics, and techniques from machine learning, we train predictive models and study which variables drive predictable replication. The models predicts binary replication with a cross-validated accuracy rate of 70% (AUC of 0.77) and estimates of relative effect sizes with a Spearman ρ of 0.38. The accuracy level is similar to market-aggregated beliefs of peer scientists [1, 2]. The predictive power is validated in a pre-registered out of sample test of the outcome of [3], where 71% (AUC of 0.73) of replications are predicted correctly and effect size correlations amount to ρ = 0.25. Basic features such as the sample and effect sizes in original papers, and whether reported effects are single-variable main effects or two-variable interactions, are predictive of successful replication. The models presented in this paper are simple tools to produce cheap, prognostic replicability metrics. These models could be useful in institutionalizing the process of evaluation of new findings and guiding resources to those direct replications that are likely to be most informative.
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| 9. |
- Anderson, Anders, et al.
(author)
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Risk taking, behavioral biases and genes : Results from 149 active investors
- 2015
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In: Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-6350 .- 2214-6369. ; 6, s. 93-100
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Recent evidence suggests that there is genetic basis for economic behaviors, including preferences for risk taking. We correlate variation in risk taking and behavioral biases with two genetic polymorphisms related to the uptake of dopamine and serotonin (7R+ DRD4 and s/s 5-HTTLPR), hypothesizing that they are positively (negatively) related to risk taking. We use a small but detailed sample of active investors where we combine survey data with DNA samples and data from Swedish tax records that give us objective information about actual economic choices. We find a positive (negative) relationship between the dopamine (serotonin) gene and life expectancy bias, but no other significant correlations between the two genes and behaviors, including risk taking and measures of equity holdings. We acknowledge that our tests suffer from low power originating from the small sample size, which warrants some caution when interpreting these results.
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| 10. |
- Apicella, Coren L, et al.
(author)
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Sex Differences in Competitiveness: Hunter-Gatherer Women and Girls Compete Less in Gender-Neutral and Male-Centric Tasks
- 2015
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In: Adaptive Human Behavior and Physiology. - : Springer (part of Springer Nature): Springer Open Choice Hybrid Journals. - 2198-7335 .- 2198-7335. ; 1:3, s. 247-269
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Despite numerous attempts to increase workplace equality, the near universal gender wage gap and underrepresentation of women in high status jobs persists in societies around the world. This persistence has led some researchers to speculate that psychological sex differences may be partly to blame. In particular, economists have begun to focus on sex differences in competitiveness as a possible cause. Here we test whether sex differences in competitiveness exist in a relatively isolated and evolutionarily relevant population of hunter-gatherers in Tanzania. In study 1 we examine sex differences in willingness to compete in a gender-neutral task in Hadza adults and children (N = 191). We find that when choosing between an individualistic payment scheme and a competitive payment scheme, boys and men are significantly more likely to compete than girls and women. We find no evidence that this sex difference varies with age. In study 2 (N = 88 and N = 70) we use both a female-centric and a male-centric task to explore sex differences in competitiveness in adults. While we find no sex difference in willingness to compete in the female-centric task, we find that men are more likely to compete in the male-centric task. While further work is needed, this study lends some support to the idea of a sex difference in willingness to compete among hunter-gatherers, but it also highlights the importance of the task type. The observation that a sizable proportion of male Hadza choose to compete in each of the tasks is discussed in light of the fact that hunter-gatherers are largely egalitarian and non-hierarchical.
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