| 1. |
- Blunden, Jessica, et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2012
- 2013
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 94:8, s. S1-S258
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.
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| 2. |
- Blunden, Jessica, et al.
(författare)
-
State of the climate in 2013
- 2014
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Ingår i: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007. ; 95
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2014, American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved. In 2013, the vast majority of the monitored climate variables reported here maintained trends established in recent decades. ENSO was in a neutral state during the entire year, remaining mostly on the cool side of neutral with modest impacts on regional weather patterns around the world. This follows several years dominated by the effects of either La Niña or El Niño events. According to several independent analyses, 2013 was again among the 10 warmest years on record at the global scale, both at the Earth’s surface and through the troposphere. Some regions in the Southern Hemisphere had record or near-record high temperatures for the year. Australia observed its hottest year on record, while Argentina and New Zealand reported their second and third hottest years, respectively. In Antarctica, Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station reported its highest annual temperature since records began in 1957. At the opposite pole, the Arctic observed its seventh warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. At 20-m depth, record high temperatures were measured at some permafrost stations on the North Slope of Alaska and in the Brooks Range. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, anomalous meridional atmospheric circulation occurred throughout much of the year, leading to marked regional extremes of both temperature and precipitation. Cold temperature anomalies during winter across Eurasia were followed by warm spring temperature anomalies, which were linked to a new record low Eurasian snow cover extent in May. Minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. Including 2013, all seven lowest extents on record have occurred in the past seven years. Antarctica, on the other hand, had above-average sea ice extent throughout 2013, with 116 days of new daily high extent records, including a new daily maximum sea ice area of 19.57 million km2 reached on 1 October. ENSO-neutral conditions in the eastern central Pacific Ocean and a negative Pacific decadal oscillation pattern in the North Pacific had the largest impacts on the global sea surface temperature in 2013. The North Pacific reached a historic high temperature in 2013 and on balance the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was among the 10 highest on record. Overall, the salt content in nearsurface ocean waters increased while in intermediate waters it decreased. Global mean sea level continued to rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3.2 mm yr-1 over the past two decades. A portion of this trend (0.5 mm yr-1) has been attributed to natural variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation as well as to ongoing contributions from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and ocean warming. Global tropical cyclone frequency during 2013 was slightly above average with a total of 94 storms, although the North Atlantic Basin had its quietest hurricane season since 1994. In the Western North Pacific Basin, Super Typhoon Haiyan, the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2013, had 1-minute sustained winds estimated to be 170 kt (87.5 m s-1) on 7 November, the highest wind speed ever assigned to a tropical cyclone. High storm surge was also associated with Haiyan as it made landfall over the central Philippines, an area where sea level is currently at historic highs, increasing by 200 mm since 1970. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all continued to increase in 2013. As in previous years, each of these major greenhouse gases once again reached historic high concentrations. In the Arctic, carbon dioxide and methane increased at the same rate as the global increase. These increases are likely due to export from lower latitudes rather than a consequence of increases in Arctic sources, such as thawing permafrost. At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, for the first time since measurements began in 1958, the daily average mixing ratio of carbon dioxide exceeded 400 ppm on 9 May. The state of these variables, along with dozens of others, and the 2013 climate conditions of regions around the world are discussed in further detail in this 24th edition of the State of the Climate series.
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| 3. |
- Duwig, Christophe, et al.
(författare)
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Large Eddy Simulation of a premixed jet flame stabilized by a vitiated co-flow: Evaluation of auto-ignition tabulated chemistry
- 2013
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Ingår i: Combustion and Flame. - : Elsevier BV. - 0010-2180. ; 160:12, s. 2879-2895
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A tabulation technique assuming an auto-ignition dominated reaction pathway for highly turbulent premixed combustion is presented, implemented in an LES framework and evaluated. The tabulation method enables the reduction of the chemical system dimension to two scalars, allowing a computationally efficient model implementation, yet still retaining a sufficiently accurate representation of the chemical kinetics. The sensitivity of the LES model to the grid, inflow conditions, subgrid model, tabulation method assumptions and the chemical mechanism used in the tabulation process is evaluated with reference to detailed experimental measurements. The particular chemical mechanism utilized for the tabulation is shown to have a significant effect on the CO and OH concentrations, whilst only a small influence on the temperature and mixing fields. Comparisons with laminar flame based tabulation explain the misprediction of CO concentration. However, both the auto-ignition and laminar flame based tabulations fail to capture the OH concentration. The ability of the two tabulation techniques to capture the non-flamelet structure is discussed and the predictive capability of the two approaches is established. The general utility of a global Karlovitz number for describing the combustion regime and hence the selection of an applicable combustion model is brought into question considering that the variation of the local Karlovitz number in the simulations varies by up to 2 orders of magnitude, indicating a broad range of accessed flame structures. (C) 2013 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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| 4. |
- Duwig, Christophe, et al.
(författare)
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Large Eddy Simulations of a piloted lean premix jet flame using finite-rate chemistry
- 2011
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Ingår i: Combustion Theory and Modelling. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1364-7830 .- 1741-3559. ; 15:4, s. 537-568
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model capable of accurately representing finite-rate chemistry effects in turbulent premixed combustion is presented. The LES computations use finite-rate chemistry and implicit LES combustion modelling to simulate an experimentally well-documented lean-premixed jet flame stabilized by a stoichiometric pilot. The validity of the implicit LES assumption is discussed and criteria are expressed in terms of subgrid scale Damkohler and Karlovitz numbers. Simulation results are compared to experimental data for velocity, temperature and species mass fractions of CH4, CO and OH. The simulation results highlight the validity and capability of the present approach for the flame and in general the combustion regime examined. A sensitivity analysis to the choice of the finite-rate chemistry mechanism is reported, this analysis indicates that the one and two-step global reaction mechanisms evaluated fail to capture the reaction layer with sufficient accuracy, while a 20-species skeletal mechanism reproduces the experimental observations accurately including the key finite-rate chemistry indicators CO and OH. The LES results are shown to be grid insensitive and that the grid resolution within the bounds examined is far less important compared to the sensitivity of the finite-rate chemistry representation. The results are analyzed in terms of the flame dynamics and it is shown that intense small scale mixing (high Karlovitz number) between the pilot and the jet is an important mechanism for the stabilization of the flame.
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| 5. |
- Yi, Chuixiang, et al.
(författare)
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Climate control of terrestrial carbon exchange across biomes and continents
- 2010
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 5:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding the relationships between climate and carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems is critical to predict future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide because of the potential accelerating effects of positive climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. However, directly observed relationships between climate and terrestrial CO2 exchange with the atmosphere across biomes and continents are lacking. Here we present data describing the relationships between net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE) and climate factors as measured using the eddy covariance method at 125 unique sites in various ecosystems over six continents with a total of 559 site-years. We find that NEE observed at eddy covariance sites is (1) a strong function of mean annual temperature at mid-and high-latitudes, (2) a strong function of dryness at mid-and low-latitudes, and (3) a function of both temperature and dryness around the mid-latitudinal belt (45 degrees N). The sensitivity of NEE to mean annual temperature breaks down at similar to 16 degrees C (a threshold value of mean annual temperature), above which no further increase of CO2 uptake with temperature was observed and dryness influence overrules temperature influence.
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