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- Razavi, H., et al.
(författare)
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Hepatitis C virus prevalence and level of intervention required to achieve the WHO targets for elimination in the European Union by 2030: a modelling study
- 2017
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Ingår i: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 2:5, s. 325-336
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality worldwide. In the European Union (EU), treatment and cure of HCV with direct-acting antiviral therapies began in 2014. WHO targets are to achieve a 65% reduction in liver-related deaths, a 90% reduction of new viral hepatitis infections, and 90% of patients with viral hepatitis infections being diagnosed by 2030. This study assessed the prevalence of HCV in the EU and the level of intervention required to achieve WHO targets for HCV elimination. Methods We populated country Markov models for the 28 EU countries through a literature search of PubMed and Embase between Jan 1, 2000, and March 31, 2016, and a Delphi process to gain expert consensus and validate inputs. We aggregated country models to create a regional EU model. We used the EU model to forecast HCV disease progression (considering the effect of immigration) and developed a strategy to acehive WHO targets. We used weighted average sustained viral response rates and fibrosis restrictions to model the effect of current therapeutic guidelines. We used the EU model to forecast HCV disease progression (considering the effect of immigration) under current screening and therapeutic guidelines. Additionally, we back-calculated the total number of patients needing to be screened and treated to achieve WHO targets. Findings We estimated the number of viraemic HCV infections in 2015 to be 3 238 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2 106 000-3 795 000) of a total population of 509 868 000 in the EU, equating to a prevalence of viraemic HCV of 0.64% (95% UI 0.41-0.74). We estimated that 1 180 000 (95% UI 1 003 000-1 357 000) people were diagnosed with viraemia (36.4%), 150 000 (12 000-180 000) were treated (4.6% of the total infected population or 12.7% of the diagnosed population), 133 000 (106 000-160 000) were cured (4.1%), and 57 900 (43 900-67 300) were newly infected (1.8%) in 2015. Additionally, 30 400 (26 600-42 500) HCV-positive immigrants entered the EU. To achieve WHO targets, unrestricted treatment needs to increase from 150 000 patients in 2015 to 187 000 patients in 2025 and diagnosis needs to increase from 88 800 new cases annually in 2015 to 180 000 in 2025. Interpretation Given its advanced health-care infrastructure, the EU is uniquely poised to eliminate HCV; however, expansion of screening programmes is essential to increase treatment to achieve the WHO targets. A united effort, grounded in sound epidemiological evidence, will also be necessary.
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- Cremers, Ruben G., et al.
(författare)
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The role of the prostate cancer gene 3 urine test in addition to serum prostate-specific antigen level in prostate cancer screening among breast cancer, early-onset gene mutation carriers
- 2015
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Ingår i: Urologic Oncology: Seminars and Original Investigations. - : Elsevier BV. - 1078-1439. ; 33:5, s. 19-202
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: To evaluate the additive value of the prostate cancer gene 3 (PCA3) urine test to serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) in prostate cancer (PC) screening among breast cancer, early-onset gene (BRCA) mutation carriers. This study was performed among the Dutch participants of IMPACT, a large international study on the effectiveness of PSA screening among BRCA mutation carriers. Materials and methods: Urinary PCA3 was measured in 191 BRCA1 mutation carriers, 75 BRCA2 mutation carriers, and 308 noncarriers. The physicians and participants were blinded for the results. Serum PSA level≥3.0. ng/ml was used to indicate prostate biopsies. PCA3 was evaluated (1) as an independent indicator for prostate biopsies and (2) as an indicator for prostate biopsies among men with an elevated PSA level. PC detected up to the 2-year screening was used as gold standard as end-of-study biopsies were not performed. Results: Overall, 23 PCs were diagnosed, 20 of which were in men who had an elevated PSA level in the initial screening round. (1) PCA3, successfully determined in 552 participants, was elevated in 188 (cutoff≥25; 34%) or 134 (cutoff≥35; 24%) participants, including 2 of the 3 PCs missed by PSA. PCA3 would have added 157 (≥25; 28%) or 109 (≥35; 20%) biopsy sessions to screening with PSA only. (2) Elevated PCA3 as a requirement for biopsies in addition to PSA would have saved 37 (cutoff≥25) or 43 (cutoff≥35) of the 68 biopsy sessions, and 7 or 11 PCs would have been missed, respectively, including multiple high-risk PCs. So far, PCA3 performed best among BRCA2 mutation carriers, but the numbers are still small. Because PCA3 was not used to indicate prostate biopsies, its true diagnostic value cannot be calculated. Conclusions: The results do not provide evidence for PCA3 as a useful additional indicator of prostate biopsies in BRCA mutation carriers, as many participants had an elevated PCA3 in the absence of PC. This must be interpreted with caution because PCA3 was not used to indicate biopsies. Many participants diagnosed with PC had low PCA3, making it invalid as a restrictive marker for prostate biopsies in men with elevated PSA levels.
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