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Sökning: WFRF:(Feldbauer Johannes)

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  • Feldbauer, Johannes, et al. (författare)
  • Ensemble of models shows coherent response of a reservoir's stratification and ice cover to climate warming
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Aquatic Sciences. - : Springer Nature. - 1015-1621 .- 1420-9055. ; 84:4
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Water temperature, ice cover, and lake stratification are important physical properties of lakes and reservoirs that control mixing as well as bio-geo-chemical processes and thus influence the water quality. We used an ensemble of vertical one-dimensional hydrodynamic lake models driven with regional climate projections to calculate water temperature, stratification, and ice cover under the A1B emission scenario for the German drinking water reservoir Lichtenberg. We used an analysis of variance method to estimate the contributions of the considered sources of uncertainty on the ensemble output. For all simulated variables, epistemic uncertainty, which is related to the model structure, is the dominant source throughout the simulation period. Nonetheless, the calculated trends are coherent among the five models and in line with historical observations. The ensemble predicts an increase in surface water temperature of 0.34 K per decade, a lengthening of the summer stratification of 3.2 days per decade, as well as decreased probabilities of the occurrence of ice cover and winter inverse stratification by 2100. These expected changes are likely to influence the water quality of the reservoir. Similar trends are to be expected in other reservoirs and lakes in comparable regions.
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  • Moore, Tadhg N, et al. (författare)
  • LakeEnsemblR : An R package that facilitates ensemble modelling of lakes
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Environmental Modelling & Software. - : Elsevier. - 1364-8152 .- 1873-6726. ; 143
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Model ensembles have several benefits compared to single-model applications but are not frequently used within the lake modelling community. Setting up and running multiple lake models can be challenging and time consuming, despite the many similarities between the existing models (forcing data, hypsograph, etc.). Here we present an R package, LakeEnsemblR, that facilitates running ensembles of five different vertical one-dimensional hydrodynamic lake models (FLake, GLM, GOTM, Simstrat, MyLake). The package requires input in a standardised format and a single configuration file. LakeEnsemblR formats these files to the input required by each model, and provides functions to run and calibrate the models. The outputs of the different models are compiled into a single file, and several post-processing operations are supported. LakeEnsemblR's workflow standardisation can simplify model benchmarking and uncertainty quantification, and improve collaborations between scientists. We showcase the successful application of LakeEnsemblR for two different lakes.
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