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- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 4. |
- Nicolas, Aude, et al.
(författare)
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Genome-wide Analyses Identify KIF5A as a Novel ALS Gene
- 2018
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Ingår i: Neuron. - : Cell Press. - 0896-6273 .- 1097-4199. ; 97:6, s. 1268-1283.e6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To identify novel genes associated with ALS, we undertook two lines of investigation. We carried out a genome-wide association study comparing 20,806 ALS cases and 59,804 controls. Independently, we performed a rare variant burden analysis comparing 1,138 index familial ALS cases and 19,494 controls. Through both approaches, we identified kinesin family member 5A (KIF5A) as a novel gene associated with ALS. Interestingly, mutations predominantly in the N-terminal motor domain of KIF5A are causative for two neurodegenerative diseases: hereditary spastic paraplegia (SPG10) and Charcot-Marie-Tooth type 2 (CMT2). In contrast, ALS-associated mutations are primarily located at the C-terminal cargo-binding tail domain and patients harboring loss-of-function mutations displayed an extended survival relative to typical ALS cases. Taken together, these results broaden the phenotype spectrum resulting from mutations in KIF5A and strengthen the role of cytoskeletal defects in the pathogenesis of ALS.
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- Ferreira, Mjv, et al.
(författare)
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Poster Session 3 : Tuesday 5 May 2015, 08
- 2015
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal Cardiovascular Imaging. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 2047-2404 .- 2047-2412. ; 16 Suppl 1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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- Karimian, N., et al.
(författare)
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The effects of added whey protein to a pre-operative carbohydrate drink on glucose and insulin response
- 2018
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Ingår i: Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica. - : Wiley. - 0001-5172 .- 1399-6576. ; 62:5, s. 620-627
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundPre-operative complex carbohydrate (CHO) drinks are recommended to attenuate post-operative insulin resistance. However, many institutions use simple CHO drinks, which while convenient, may have less metabolic effects. Whey protein may enhance insulin release when added to complex CHO. The aim of this study was to compare the insulin response to simple CHO vs. simple CHO supplemented with whey protein.MethodsTwelve healthy volunteers participated in this double-blinded, within subject, cross-over design study investigating insulin response to simple CHO drink vs. simple CHO+whey (CHO+W) drink. The primary outcome was the accumulated insulin response during 180min after ingestion of the drinks (Area under the curve, AUC). Secondary outcomes included plasma glucose and ghrelin levels, and gastric emptying rate estimated by acetaminophen absorption technique. Data presented as mean (SD).ResultsThere was no differences in accumulated insulin response after the CHO or CHO+W drinks [AUC: 15 (8) vs. 20 (14)nmol/l, P=0.27]. Insulin and glucose levels peaked between 30 and 60min and reached 215 (95)pmol/l and 7 (1)mmol/l after the CHO drink and to 264 (232)pmol/l and 6.5 (1)mmol/l after the CHO+W drink. There were no differences in glucose or ghrelin levels or gastric emptying with the addition of whey.ConclusionThe addition of whey protein to a simple CHO drink did not change the insulin response in healthy individuals. The peak insulin responses to simple CHO with or without whey protein were lower than that previously reported with complex CHO drinks. The impact of simple carbohydrate drinks with lower insulin response on peri-operative insulin sensitivity requires further study.
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- McMaster, ML, et al.
(författare)
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Two high-risk susceptibility loci at 6p25.3 and 14q32.13 for Waldenström macroglobulinemia
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 9:1, s. 4182-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Waldenström macroglobulinemia (WM)/lymphoplasmacytic lymphoma (LPL) is a rare, chronic B-cell lymphoma with high heritability. We conduct a two-stage genome-wide association study of WM/LPL in 530 unrelated cases and 4362 controls of European ancestry and identify two high-risk loci associated with WM/LPL at 6p25.3 (rs116446171, near EXOC2 and IRF4; OR = 21.14, 95% CI: 14.40–31.03, P = 1.36 × 10−54) and 14q32.13 (rs117410836, near TCL1; OR = 4.90, 95% CI: 3.45–6.96, P = 8.75 × 10−19). Both risk alleles are observed at a low frequency among controls (~2–3%) and occur in excess in affected cases within families. In silico data suggest that rs116446171 may have functional importance, and in functional studies, we demonstrate increased reporter transcription and proliferation in cells transduced with the 6p25.3 risk allele. Although further studies are needed to fully elucidate underlying biological mechanisms, together these loci explain 4% of the familial risk and provide insights into genetic susceptibility to this malignancy.
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