| 1. |
- Alexander, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections
- 2017
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013. ; 23:2, s. 767-781
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.
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| 2. |
- Güttler, M., et al.
(författare)
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Divalent EuRh 2 Si 2 as a reference for the Luttinger theorem and antiferromagnetism in trivalent heavy-fermion YbRh 2 Si 2
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 10:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Application of the Luttinger theorem to the Kondo lattice YbRh 2 Si 2 suggests that its large 4f-derived Fermi surface (FS) in the paramagnetic (PM) regime should be similar in shape and volume to that of the divalent local-moment antiferromagnet (AFM) EuRh 2 Si 2 in its PM regime. Here we show by angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy that paramagnetic EuRh 2 Si 2 has a large FS essentially similar to the one seen in YbRh 2 Si 2 down to 1 K. In EuRh 2 Si 2 the onset of AFM order below 24.5 K induces an extensive fragmentation of the FS due to Brillouin zone folding, intersection and resulting hybridization of the Fermi-surface sheets. Our results on EuRh 2 Si 2 indicate that the formation of the AFM state in YbRh 2 Si 2 is very likely also connected with similar changes in the FS, which have to be taken into account in the controversial analysis and discussion of anomalies observed at the quantum critical point in this system.
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| 3. |
- Kawaguchi, K., et al.
(författare)
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Detection of HF Toward PKS 1830-211, Search for Interstellar H2F+, and Laboratory Study of H2F+ and H2Cl+ Dissociative Recombination
- 2016
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 822:2, s. Art. no. 115-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report extragalactic observations of two fluorine-bearing species, hydrogen fluoride (HF) and fluoronium (H2F+), in the z = 0.89 absorber in front of the lensed blazar PKS 1830-211 with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array. HF was detected toward both southwest and northeast images of the blazar, with column densities >3.4 × 1014 cm-2 and 0.18 × 1014 cm-2, respectively. H2F+ was not detected, down to an upper limit (3?) of 8.8 × 1011 cm-2 and an abundance ratio of [H2F+]/[HF] 1/386. We also searched for H2F+ toward the Galactic sources NGC 6334 I and W51C, and toward Galactic center clouds with the Herschel HIFI spectrometer.6 The upper limit on the column density was derived to be 2.5 × 1011 cm-2 in NGC 6334 I, which is 1/68 of that for H2Cl+. In constrast, the ortho transition of H2Cl+ is detected toward PKS 1830-211. To understand the small abundance of interstellar H2F+, we carried out laboratory experiments to determine the rate constants for the ion-electron recombination reaction by infrared time-resolved spectroscopy. The constants determined are ke(209 K) = (1.1 ± 0.3) ×10-7 cm3 s-1 and (0.46 ± 0.05) ×10-7 cm3 s-1 for H2F+ and H2Cl+, respectively. The difference in the dissociative recombination rates between H2F+ and H2Cl+ by a factor ?2 and the cosmic abundance ratio [F]/[Cl] ? 1/6 are not enough to explain the much smaller abundance of H2F+. The difference in the formation mechanism of H2F+ and H2Cl+ in interstellar space would be a major factor in the small abundance of H2F+.
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| 4. |
- Prestele, Reinhard, et al.
(författare)
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Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections : a global-scale model comparison
- 2016
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 22:12, s. 3967-3983
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.
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