| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Mendieta-Leiva, Glenda, et al.
(author)
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EpIG-DB: A database of vascular epiphyte assemblages in the Neotropics
- 2020
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In: Journal of Vegetation Science. - : Wiley. - 1100-9233 .- 1654-1103. ; 31, s. 518-528
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Vascular epiphytes are a diverse and conspicuous component of biodiversity in tropical and subtropical forests. Yet, the patterns and drivers of epiphyte assemblages are poorly studied in comparison with soil-rooted plants. Current knowledge about diversity patterns of epiphytes mainly stems from local studies or floristic inventories, but this information has not yet been integrated to allow a better understanding of large-scale distribution patterns. EpIG-DB, the first database on epiphyte assemblages at the continental scale, resulted from an exhaustive compilation of published and unpublished inventory data from the Neotropics. The current version of EpIG-DB consists of 463,196 individual epiphytes from 3,005 species, which were collected from a total of 18,148 relevés (host trees and ‘understory’ plots). EpIG-DB reports the occurrence of ‘true’ epiphytes, hemiepiphytes and nomadic vines, including information on their cover, abundance, frequency and biomass. Most records (97%) correspond to sampled host trees, 76% of them aggregated in forest plots. The data is stored in a TURBOVEG database using the most up-to-date checklist of vascular epiphytes. A total of 18 additional fields were created for the standardization of associated data commonly used in epiphyte ecology (e.g. by considering different sampling methods). EpIG-DB currently covers six major biomes across the whole latitudinal range of epiphytes in the Neotropics but welcomes data globally. This novel database provides, for the first time, unique biodiversity data on epiphytes for the Neotropics and unified guidelines for future collection of epiphyte data. EpIG-DB will allow exploration of new ways to study the community ecology and biogeography of vascular epiphytes.
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| 3. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 4. |
- Furtado, Carolina, et al.
(author)
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Effects of ply thickness and architecture on the strength of composite sub-structures
- 2021
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In: Composite Structures. - : Elsevier BV. - 0263-8223. ; 256
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This work presents an experimental study on the effect of: ply thickness; ply-level hybridization; and type of ply architecture on the damage mechanisms that dominate failure and strength of multidirectional laminates. Nine effectively equivalent 0°dominated multidirectional laminates made from unidirectional carbon fibre tapes (UD), non-crimp fabrics (NCF) and spread-tow fabrics (STF) with thickness ranging from 67 μm to 268 μm are defined and tested under plain strength tension and compression, open-hole tension and compression, filled-hole compression and tension-bearing. An overall improvement of the strengths with the decrease of ply thickness is observed for the UD and NCF laminates, but nearly no effect of ply thickness is detected for STF laminates. Ply-level hybridization, where thin off-axis plies are combined with thicker grade 0°plies contributes to the improvement of the laminate response, especially when thicker 0°plies are used. However, hybrid-ply laminates are more sensitive to the loading direction and are, therefore, only suitable in structures where highly oriented loadings are expected. Fabric-based laminates do not show especial susceptibility to early failure compared to UD laminates. Their use can, therefore, be an economical solution that does not compromise the structural response, ensuring the weight benefits of composite materials at lower processing costs.
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| 5. |
- O'Donovan, Tony, et al.
(author)
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The GINSENG system for wireless monitoring and control : Design and deployment experiences
- 2013
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In: ACM transactions on sensor networks. - : Association for Computing Machinery (ACM). - 1550-4867 .- 1550-4859. ; 10:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Today's industrial facilities, such as oil refineries, chemical plants, and factories, rely on wired sensor systems to monitor and control the production processes. The deployment and maintenance of such cabled systems is expensive and inflexible. It is, therefore, desirable to replace or augment these systems using wireless technology, which requires us to overcome significant technical challenges. Process automation and control applications are mission-critical and require timely and reliable data delivery, which is difficult to provide in industrial environments with harsh radio environments. In this article, we present the GINSENG system which implements performance control to allow us to use wireless sensor networks for mission-critical applications in industrial environments. GINSENG is a complete system solution that comprises on-node system software, network protocols, and back-end systems with sophisticated data processing capability. GINSENG assumes that a deployment can be carefully planned. A TDMA-based MAC protocol, tailored to the deployment environment, is employed to provide reliable and timely data delivery. Performance debugging components are used to unintrusively monitor the system performance and identify problems as they occur. The article reports on a real-world deployment of GINSENG in an especially challenging environment of an operational oil refinery in Sines, Portugal. We provide experimental results from this deployment and share the experiences gained. These results demonstate the use of GINSENG for sensing and actuation and allow an assessment of its ability to operate within the required performance bounds. We also identify shortcomings that manifested during the evaluation phase, thus giving a useful perspective on the challenges that have to be overcome in these harsh application settings.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(author)
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- 2020
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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