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- Chang, A. Y., et al.
(författare)
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Past, present, and future of global health financing : A review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 195 countries, 1995-2050
- 2019
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 393:10187, s. 2233-2260
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries. Methods: We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories-government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending-and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resources for health. Findings: Between 1995 and 2016, health spending grew at a rate of 4.00% (95% uncertainty interval 3.89-4.12) annually, although it grew slower in per capita terms (2.72% [2.61-2.84]) and increased by less than $1 per capita over this period in 22 of 195 countries. The highest annual growth rates in per capita health spending were observed in upper-middle-income countries (5.55% [5.18-5.95]), mainly due to growth in government health spending, and in lower-middle-income countries (3.71% [3.10-4.34]), mainly from DAH. Health spending globally reached $8.0 trillion (7.8-8.1) in 2016 (comprising 8.6% [8.4-8.7] of the global economy and $10.3 trillion [10.1-10.6] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), with a per capita spending of US$5252 (5184-5319) in high-income countries, $491 (461-524) in upper-middle-income countries, $81 (74-89) in lower-middle-income countries, and $40 (38-43) in low-income countries. In 2016, 0.4% (0.3-0.4) of health spending globally was in low-income countries, despite these countries comprising 10.0% of the global population. In 2018, the largest proportion of DAH targeted HIV/AIDS ($9.5 billion, 24.3% of total DAH), although spending on other infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis and malaria) grew fastest from 2010 to 2018 (6.27% per year). The leading sources of DAH were the USA and private philanthropy (excluding corporate donations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). For the first time, we included estimates of China’s contribution to DAH ($644.7 million in 2018). Globally, health spending is projected to increase to $15.0 trillion (14.0-16.0) by 2050 (reaching 9.4% [7.6-11.3] of the global economy and $21.3 trillion [19.8-23.1] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), but at a lower growth rate of 1.84% (1.68-2.02) annually, and with continuing disparities in spending between countries. In 2050, we estimate that 0.6% (0.6-0.7) of health spending will occur in currently low-income countries, despite these countries comprising an estimated 15.7% of the global population by 2050. The ratio between per capita health spending in high-income and low-income countries was 130.2 (122.9-136.9) in 2016 and is projected to remain at similar levels in 2050 (125.9 [113.7-138.1]). The decomposition analysis identified governments’ increased prioritisation of the health sector and economic development as the strongest factors associated with increases in government health spending globally. Future government health spending scenarios suggest that, with greater prioritisation of the health sector and increased government spending, health spending per capita could more than double, with greater impacts in countries that currently have the lowest levels of government health spending. Interpretation: Financing for global health has increased steadily over the past two decades and is projected to continue increasing in the future, although at a slower pace of growth and with persistent disparities in per-capita health spending between countries. Out-of-pocket spending is projected to remain substantial outside of high-income countries. Many low-income countries are expected to remain dependent on development assistance, although with greater government spending, larger investments in health are feasible. In the absence of sustained new investments in health, increasing efficiency in health spending is essential to meet global health targets. © 2019 The Author(s).
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- Ahdida, C., et al.
(författare)
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Fast simulation of muons produced at the SHiP experiment using Generative Adversarial Networks
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Instrumentation. - : IOP PUBLISHING LTD. - 1748-0221 .- 1748-0221. ; 14
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a fast approach to simulating muons produced in interactions of the SPS proton beams with the target of the SHiP experiment. The SHIP experiment will be able to search for new long-lived particles produced in a 400 GeV/c SPS proton beam dump and which travel distances between fifty metres and tens of kilometers. The SHiP detector needs to operate under ultra-low background conditions and requires large simulated samples of muon induced background processes. Through the use of Generative Adversarial Networks it is possible to emulate the simulation of the interaction of 400 GeV/c proton beams with the SHiP target, an otherwise computationally intensive process. For the simulation requirements of the SHiP experiment, generative networks are capable of approximating the full simulation of the dense fixed target, offering a speed increase by a factor of O(10(6)). To evaluate the performance of such an approach, comparisons of the distributions of reconstructed muon momenta in SHiP's spectrometer between samples using the full simulation and samples produced through generative models are presented. The methods discussed in this paper can be generalised and applied to modelling any non-discrete multi-dimensional distribution.
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| 5. |
- Ahdida, C., et al.
(författare)
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Sensitivity of the SHiP experiment to Heavy Neutral Leptons
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of High Energy Physics (JHEP). - 1126-6708 .- 1029-8479. ; :4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Heavy Neutral Leptons (HNLs) are hypothetical particles predicted by many extensions of the Standard Model. These particles can, among other things, explain the origin of neutrino masses, generate the observed matter-antimatter asymmetry in the Universe and provide a dark matter candidate. The SHiP experiment will be able to search for HNLs produced in decays of heavy mesons and travelling distances ranging between O(50 m) and tens of kilometers before decaying. We present the sensitivity of the SHiP experiment to a number of HNL's benchmark models and provide a way to calculate the SHiP's sensitivity to HNLs for arbitrary patterns of flavour mixings. The corresponding tools and data files are also made publicly available.
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- Ahdida, C., et al.
(författare)
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The experimental facility for the Search for Hidden Particles at the CERN SPS
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Instrumentation. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 1748-0221 .- 1748-0221. ; 14
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Search for Hidden Particles (SHiP) Collaboration has shown that the CERN SPS accelerator with its 400 GeV/c proton beam offers a unique opportunity to explore the Hidden Sector [1-3]. The proposed experiment is an intensity frontier experiment which is capable of searching for hidden particles through both visible decays and through scattering signatures from recoil of electrons or nuclei. The high-intensity experimental facility developed by the SHiP Collaboration is based on a number of key features and developments which provide the possibility of probing a large part of the parameter space for a wide range of models with light long-lived super-weakly interacting particles with masses up to O(10) GeV/c(2) in an environment of extremely clean background conditions. This paper describes the proposal for the experimental facility together with the most important feasibility studies. The paper focuses on the challenging new ideas behind the beam extraction and beam delivery, the proton beam dump, and the suppression of beam-induced background.
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| 7. |
- Allen, Naomi E, et al.
(författare)
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Selenium and Prostate Cancer : Analysis of Individual Participant Data From Fifteen Prospective Studies.
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of the National Cancer Institute. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0027-8874 .- 1460-2105. ; 108:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Some observational studies suggest that a higher selenium status is associated with a lower risk of prostate cancer but have been generally too small to provide precise estimates of associations, particularly by disease stage and grade.METHODS: Collaborating investigators from 15 prospective studies provided individual-participant records (from predominantly men of white European ancestry) on blood or toenail selenium concentrations and prostate cancer risk. Odds ratios of prostate cancer by selenium concentration were estimated using multivariable-adjusted conditional logistic regression. All statistical tests were two-sided.RESULTS: Blood selenium was not associated with the risk of total prostate cancer (multivariable-adjusted odds ratio [OR] per 80 percentile increase = 1.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.83 to 1.23, based on 4527 case patients and 6021 control subjects). However, there was heterogeneity by disease aggressiveness (ie, advanced stage and/or prostate cancer death, Pheterogeneity = .01), with high blood selenium associated with a lower risk of aggressive disease (OR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.21 to 0.87) but not with nonaggressive disease. Nail selenium was inversely associated with total prostate cancer (OR = 0.29, 95% CI = 0.22 to 0.40, Ptrend < .001, based on 1970 case patients and 2086 control subjects), including both nonaggressive (OR = 0.33, 95% CI = 0.22 to 0.50) and aggressive disease (OR = 0.18, 95% CI = 0.11 to 0.31, Pheterogeneity = .08).CONCLUSIONS: Nail, but not blood, selenium concentration is inversely associated with risk of total prostate cancer, possibly because nails are a more reliable marker of long-term selenium exposure. Both blood and nail selenium concentrations are associated with a reduced risk of aggressive disease, which warrants further investigation.
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- Armengaud, E., et al.
(författare)
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Physics potential of the International Axion Observatory (IAXO)
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics. - : IOP Publishing. - 1475-7516. ; :6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We review the physics potential of a next generation search for solar axions: the International Axion Observatory (IAXO). Endowed with a sensitivity to discover axion-like particles (ALPs) with a coupling to photons as small as g(a gamma) similar to 10(-12) GeV-1, or to electrons g(ae) similar to 10(-13), IAXO has the potential to find the QCD axion in the 1 meV similar to 1 eV mass range where it solves the strong CP problem, can account for the cold dark matter of the Universe and be responsible for the anomalous cooling observed in a number of stellar systems. At the same time, IAXO will have enough sensitivity to detect lower mass axions invoked to explain: 1) the origin of the anomalous transparency of the Universe to gamma-rays, 2) the observed soft X-ray excess from galaxy clusters or 3) some inflationary models. In addition, we review string theory axions with parameters accessible by IAXO and discuss their potential role in cosmology as Dark Matter and Dark Radiation as well as their connections to the above mentioned conundrums.
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| 9. |
- Key, Timothy J., et al.
(författare)
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Carotenoids, retinol, tocopherols, and prostate cancer risk : pooled analysis of 15 studies
- 2015
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Ingår i: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Elsevier BV. - 0002-9165 .- 1938-3207. ; 102:5, s. 1142-1157
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Individual studies have suggested that circulating carotenoids, retinol, or tocopherols may be associated with prostate cancer risk, but the studies have not been large enough to provide precise estimates of associations, particularly by stage and grade of disease. Objective: The objective of this study was to conduct a pooled analysis of the associations of the concentrations of 7 carotenoids, retinol, alpha-tocopherol, and gamma-tocopherol with risk of prostate cancer and to describe whether any associations differ by stage or grade of the disease or other factors. Design: Principal investigators of prospective studies provided individual participant data for prostate cancer cases and controls. Risk by study-specific fifths of each biomarker was estimated by using multivariable-adjusted conditional logistic regression in matched case-control sets. Results: Data were available for up to 11,239 cases (including 1654 advanced stage and 1741 aggressive) and 18,541 controls from 15 studies. Lycopene was not associated with overall risk of prostate cancer, but there was statistically significant heterogeneity by stage of disease, and the OR for aggressive disease for the highest compared with the lowest fifth of lycopene was 0.65 (95% CI: 0.46, 0.91; P-trend = 0.032). No other carotenoid was significantly associated with overall risk of prostate cancer or with risk of advanced-stage or aggressive disease. For retinol, the OR for the highest compared with the lowest fifth was 1.13 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.22; P-trend = 0.015). For alpha-tocopherol, the OR for the highest compared with the lowest fifth was 0.86 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.94; P-trend < 0.001), with significant heterogeneity by stage of disease; the OR for aggressive prostate cancer was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.59, 0.92; P-trend = 0.001). gamma-Tocopherol was not associated with risk. Conclusions: Overall prostate cancer risk was positively associated with retinol and inversely associated with alpha-tocopherol, and risk of aggressive prostate cancer was inversely associated with lycopene and alpha-tocopherol. Whether these associations reflect causal relations is unclear.
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| 10. |
- Zamora, Juan Carlos, et al.
(författare)
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Considerations and consequences of allowing DNA sequence data as types of fungal taxa
- 2018
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Ingår i: IMA Fungus. - : INT MYCOLOGICAL ASSOC. - 2210-6340 .- 2210-6359. ; 9:1, s. 167-185
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Nomenclatural type definitions are one of the most important concepts in biological nomenclature. Being physical objects that can be re-studied by other researchers, types permanently link taxonomy (an artificial agreement to classify biological diversity) with nomenclature (an artificial agreement to name biological diversity). Two proposals to amend the International Code of Nomenclature for algae, fungi, and plants (ICN), allowing DNA sequences alone (of any region and extent) to serve as types of taxon names for voucherless fungi (mainly putative taxa from environmental DNA sequences), have been submitted to be voted on at the 11th International Mycological Congress (Puerto Rico, July 2018). We consider various genetic processes affecting the distribution of alleles among taxa and find that alleles may not consistently and uniquely represent the species within which they are contained. Should the proposals be accepted, the meaning of nomenclatural types would change in a fundamental way from physical objects as sources of data to the data themselves. Such changes are conducive to irreproducible science, the potential typification on artefactual data, and massive creation of names with low information content, ultimately causing nomenclatural instability and unnecessary work for future researchers that would stall future explorations of fungal diversity. We conclude that the acceptance of DNA sequences alone as types of names of taxa, under the terms used in the current proposals, is unnecessary and would not solve the problem of naming putative taxa known only from DNA sequences in a scientifically defensible way. As an alternative, we highlight the use of formulas for naming putative taxa (candidate taxa) that do not require any modification of the ICN.
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