| 1. |
- Heslin, Alison, et al.
(författare)
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Simulating the Cascading Effects of an Extreme Agricultural Production Shock : Global Implications of a Contemporary US Dust Bowl Event
- 2020
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2571-581X. ; 4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Higher temperatures expected by midcentury increase the risk of shocks to crop production, while the interconnected nature of the current global food system functions to spread the impact of localized production shocks throughout the world. In this study, we analyze the global potential impact of a present-day event of equivalent magnitude to the US Dust Bowl, modeling the ways in which a sudden decline in US wheat production could cascade through the global network of agricultural trade. We use observations of country-level production, reserves, and trade data in a Food Shock Cascade model to explore trade adjustments and country-level inventory changes in response to a major, multiyear production decline. We find that a 4-year decline in wheat production of the same proportional magnitude as occurred during the Dust Bowl greatly reduces both wheat supply and reserves in the United States and propagates through the global trade network. By year 4 of the event, US wheat exports fall from 90.5 trillion kcal before the drought to 48 trillion to 52 trillion kcal, and the United States exhausts 94% of its reserves. As a result of reduced US exports, other countries meet their needs by leveraging their own reserves, leading to a 31% decline in wheat reserves globally. These findings demonstrate that an extreme production decline would lead to substantial supply shortfalls in both the United States and in other countries, where impacts outside the United States strongly depend on a country's reserves and on its relative position in the global trade network.
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| 2. |
- Shepon, Alon, et al.
(författare)
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Reorientation of aquaculture production systems can reduce environmental impacts and improve nutrition security in Bangladesh
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature Food. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2662-1355. ; 1:10, s. 640-647
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aquatic foods are a critical source of human nutrition in many developing countries. As a result, declines in wild-caught fish landings threaten nutritionally vulnerable populations. Aquaculture presents an opportunity to meet local demand, but it also places pressure on natural resource inputs and causes a range of environmental impacts. Here, we examine whether current aquaculture systems in Bangladesh can be reoriented to address prevailing nutritional deficiencies while minimizing these environmental impacts. Current fish farming practices, even when optimized, cannot fully supply the same essential micronutrient densities of zinc, iron and calcium as wild-caught fish. However, when the proportion of highly nutrient-dense small indigenous fish species (SIS) was increased to at least 30% of the total output in any of the 14 aquaculture production systems analysed, these systems were able to meet or surpass the nutrient densities of average wild-capture fisheries. Extensive aquaculture systems that co-produce fish and rice had the lowest environmental burdens in six out of seven metrics examined when the composition of all aquaculture systems was modified to include 50% SIS. Nutrition-sensitive aquaculture that provides greater human health benefits and minimizes environmental impacts is a key societal challenge that requires targeted interventions and supportive policies. Aquaculture production systems in Bangladesh were configured to optimize the supply of micronutrients while minimizing environmental impacts. Increased production of small indigenous species enabled nutrient densities of farmed fish to match those of wild-caught fish, and systems that co-produce fish and rice had the lowest environmental burdens.
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