| 1. |
- Bixby, H., et al.
(författare)
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Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 569:7755, s. 260-4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 5. |
- Datry, T., et al.
(författare)
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A global analysis of terrestrial plant litter dynamics in non-perennial waterways
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 11:7, s. 497-503
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Perennial rivers and streams make a disproportionate contribution to global carbon (C) cycling. However, the contribution of intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams (IRES), which sometimes cease to flow and can dry completely, is largely ignored although they represent over half the global river network. Substantial amounts of terrestrial plant litter (TPL) accumulate in dry riverbeds and, upon rewetting, this material can undergo rapid microbial processing. We present the results of a global research collaboration that collected and analysed TPL from 212 dry riverbeds across major environmental gradients and climate zones. We assessed litter decomposability by quantifying the litter carbon-to-nitrogen ratio and oxygen (O2) consumption in standardized assays and estimated the potential short-term CO2 emissions during rewetting events. Aridity, cover of riparian vegetation, channel width and dry-phase duration explained most variability in the quantity and decomposability of plant litter in IRES. Our estimates indicate that a single pulse of CO2 emission upon litter rewetting contributes up to 10% of the daily CO2 emission from perennial rivers and stream, particularly in temperate climates. This indicates that the contributions of IRES should be included in global C-cycling assessments.
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| 6. |
- von Schiller, D., et al.
(författare)
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Sediment Respiration Pulses in Intermittent Rivers and Ephemeral Streams
- 2019
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Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 33:10, s. 1251-1263
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams (IRES) may represent over half the global stream network, but their contribution to respiration and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is largely undetermined. In particular, little is known about the variability and drivers of respiration in IRES sediments upon rewetting, which could result in large pulses of CO2. We present a global study examining sediments from 200 dry IRES reaches spanning multiple biomes. Results from standardized assays show that mean respiration increased 32-fold to 66-fold upon sediment rewetting. Structural equation modeling indicates that this response was driven by sediment texture and organic matter quantity and quality, which, in turn, were influenced by climate, land use, and riparian plant cover. Our estimates suggest that respiration pulses resulting from rewetting of IRES sediments could contribute significantly to annual CO2 emissions from the global stream network, with a single respiration pulse potentially increasing emission by 0.2-0.7%. As the spatial and temporal extent of IRES increases globally, our results highlight the importance of recognizing the influence of wetting-drying cycles on respiration and CO2 emissions in stream networks.
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| 7. |
- George, T. S., et al.
(författare)
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Organic phosphorus in the terrestrial environment : a perspective on the state of the art and future priorities
- 2018
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Ingår i: Plant and Soil. - : Springer Netherlands. - 0032-079X .- 1573-5036. ; 427:1-2, s. 191-208
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The dynamics of phosphorus (P) in the environment is important for regulating nutrient cycles in natural and managed ecosystems and an integral part in assessing biological resilience against environmental change. Organic P (P-o) compounds play key roles in biological and ecosystems function in the terrestrial environment being critical to cell function, growth and reproduction.Scope: We asked a group of experts to consider the global issues associated with P-o in the terrestrial environment, methodological strengths and weaknesses, benefits to be gained from understanding the P-o cycle, and to set priorities for P-o research.Conclusions: We identified seven key opportunities for P-o research including: the need for integrated, quality controlled and functionally based methodologies; assessment of stoichiometry with other elements in organic matter; understanding the dynamics of P-o in natural and managed systems; the role of microorganisms in controlling P-o cycles; the implications of nanoparticles in the environment and the need for better modelling and communication of the research. Each priority is discussed and a statement of intent for the P-o research community is made that highlights there are key contributions to be made toward understanding biogeochemical cycles, dynamics and function of natural ecosystems and the management of agricultural systems.
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| 8. |
- Tiegs, Scott D., et al.
(författare)
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Global patterns and drivers of ecosystem functioning in rivers and riparian zones
- 2019
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Ingår i: Science Advances. - Washington : American Association of Advancement in Science. - 2375-2548. ; 5:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- River ecosystems receive and process vast quantities of terrestrial organic carbon, the fate of which depends strongly on microbial activity. Variation in and controls of processing rates, however, are poorly characterized at the global scale. In response, we used a peer-sourced research network and a highly standardized carbon processing assay to conduct a global-scale field experiment in greater than 1000 river and riparian sites. We found that Earth's biomes have distinct carbon processing signatures. Slow processing is evident across latitudes, whereas rapid rates are restricted to lower latitudes. Both the mean rate and variability decline with latitude, suggesting temperature constraints toward the poles and greater roles for other environmental drivers (e.g., nutrient loading) toward the equator. These results and data set the stage for unprecedented "next-generation biomonitoring" by establishing baselines to help quantify environmental impacts to the functioning of ecosystems at a global scale.
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| 9. |
- Chauvet, Eric, et al.
(författare)
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Litter decomposition as an indicator of stream ecosystem functioning at local-to-continental scales : insights from the European RivFunction project
- 2016
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Ingår i: Large-scale ecology. - London : Academic Press. - 9780081009352 ; 55, s. 99-182
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- RivFunction is a pan-European initiative that started in 2002 and was aimed at establishing a novel functional-based approach to assessing the ecological status of rivers. Litter decomposition was chosen as the focal process because it plays a central role in stream ecosystems and is easy to study in the field. Impacts of two stressors that occur across the continent, nutrient pollution and modified riparian vegetation, were examined at > 200 paired sites in nine European ecoregions. In response to the former, decomposition was dramatically slowed at both extremes of a 1000-fold nutrient gradient, indicating nutrient limitation in unpolluted sites, highly variable responses across Europe in moderately impacted streams, and inhibition via associated toxic and additional stressors in highly polluted streams. Riparian forest modification by clear cutting or replacement of natural vegetation by plantations (e.g. conifers, eucalyptus) or pasture produced similarly complex responses. Clear effects caused by specific riparian disturbances were observed in regionally focused studies, but general trends across different types of riparian modifications were not apparent, in part possibly because of important indirect effects. Complementary field and laboratory experiments were undertaken to tease apart the mechanistic drivers of the continental scale field bioassays by addressing the influence of litter, fungal and detritivore diversity. These revealed generally weak and context-dependent effects on decomposition, suggesting high levels of redundancy (and hence potential insurance mechanisms that can mitigate a degree of species loss) within the food web. Reduced species richness consistently increased decomposition variability, if not the absolute rate. Further field studies were aimed at identifying important sources of this variability (e.g. litter quality, temporal variability) to help constrain ranges of predicted decomposition rates in different field situations. Thus, although many details still need to be resolved, litter decomposition holds considerable potential in some circumstances to capture impairment of stream ecosystem functioning. For instance, species traits associated with the body size and metabolic capacity of the consumers were often the main driver at local scales, and these were often translated into important determinants of otherwise apparently contingent effects at larger scales. Key insights gained from conducting continental scale studies included resolving the apparent paradox of inconsistent relationships between nutrients and decomposition rates, as the full complex multidimensional picture emerged from the large-scale dataset, of which only seemingly contradictory fragments had been seen previously.
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| 10. |
- Chauvet, Eric, et al.
(författare)
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Litter decomposition as an indicator of stream ecosystem functioning at local-to-continental scales : insights from the European RivFunction project
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Large-scale ecology. - London : Academic Press. ; 55, s. 99-182
-
Bokkapitel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- RivFunction is a pan-European initiative that started in 2002 and was aimed at establishing a novel functional-based approach to assessing the ecological status of rivers. Litter decomposition was chosen as the focal process because it plays a central role in stream ecosystems and is easy to study in the field. Impacts of two stressors that occur across the continent, nutrient pollution and modified riparian vegetation, were examined at > 200 paired sites in nine European ecoregions. In response to the former, decomposition was dramatically slowed at both extremes of a 1000-fold nutrient gradient, indicating nutrient limitation in unpolluted sites, highly variable responses across Europe in moderately impacted streams, and inhibition via associated toxic and additional stressors in highly polluted streams. Riparian forest modification by clear cutting or replacement of natural vegetation by plantations (e.g. conifers, eucalyptus) or pasture produced similarly complex responses. Clear effects caused by specific riparian disturbances were observed in regionally focused studies, but general trends across different types of riparian modifications were not apparent, in part possibly because of important indirect effects. Complementary field and laboratory experiments were undertaken to tease apart the mechanistic drivers of the continental scale field bioassays by addressing the influence of litter, fungal and detritivore diversity. These revealed generally weak and context-dependent effects on decomposition, suggesting high levels of redundancy (and hence potential insurance mechanisms that can mitigate a degree of species loss) within the food web. Reduced species richness consistently increased decomposition variability, if not the absolute rate. Further field studies were aimed at identifying important sources of this variability (e.g. litter quality, temporal variability) to help constrain ranges of predicted decomposition rates in different field situations. Thus, although many details still need to be resolved, litter decomposition holds considerable potential in some circumstances to capture impairment of stream ecosystem functioning. For instance, species traits associated with the body size and metabolic capacity of the consumers were often the main driver at local scales, and these were often translated into important determinants of otherwise apparently contingent effects at larger scales. Key insights gained from conducting continental scale studies included resolving the apparent paradox of inconsistent relationships between nutrients and decomposition rates, as the full complex multidimensional picture emerged from the large-scale dataset, of which only seemingly contradictory fragments had been seen previously.
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