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| 2. |
- Abazajian, Kevork, et al.
(author)
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CMB-S4 : Forecasting Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves
- 2022
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In: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 926:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- CMB-S4—the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment—is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semianalytic projection tool, targeted explicitly toward optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2–3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments, given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semianalytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for r > 0.003 at greater than 5σ, or in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of r < 0.001 at 95% CL.
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| 3. |
- Axfors, Cathrine, et al.
(author)
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Association between convalescent plasma treatment and mortality in COVID-19 : a collaborative systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials
- 2021
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In: BMC Infectious Diseases. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1471-2334. ; 21:1
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Convalescent plasma has been widely used to treat COVID-19 and is under investigation in numerous randomized clinical trials, but results are publicly available only for a small number of trials. The objective of this study was to assess the benefits of convalescent plasma treatment compared to placebo or no treatment and all-cause mortality in patients with COVID-19, using data from all available randomized clinical trials, including unpublished and ongoing trials (Open Science Framework, ). Methods: In this collaborative systematic review and meta-analysis, clinical trial registries (ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform), the Cochrane COVID-19 register, the LOVE database, and PubMed were searched until April 8, 2021. Investigators of trials registered by March 1, 2021, without published results were contacted via email. Eligible were ongoing, discontinued and completed randomized clinical trials that compared convalescent plasma with placebo or no treatment in COVID-19 patients, regardless of setting or treatment schedule. Aggregated mortality data were extracted from publications or provided by investigators of unpublished trials and combined using the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman random effects model. We investigated the contribution of unpublished trials to the overall evidence. Results: A total of 16,477 patients were included in 33 trials (20 unpublished with 3190 patients, 13 published with 13,287 patients). 32 trials enrolled only hospitalized patients (including 3 with only intensive care unit patients). Risk of bias was low for 29/33 trials. Of 8495 patients who received convalescent plasma, 1997 died (23%), and of 7982 control patients, 1952 died (24%). The combined risk ratio for all-cause mortality was 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.92; 1.02) with between-study heterogeneity not beyond chance (I-2 = 0%). The RECOVERY trial had 69.8% and the unpublished evidence 25.3% of the weight in the meta-analysis. Conclusions: Convalescent plasma treatment of patients with COVID-19 did not reduce all-cause mortality. These results provide strong evidence that convalescent plasma treatment for patients with COVID-19 should not be used outside of randomized trials. Evidence synthesis from collaborations among trial investigators can inform both evidence generation and evidence application in patient care.
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| 4. |
- Botvinik-Nezer, Rotem, et al.
(author)
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Variability in the analysis of a single neuroimaging dataset by many teams
- 2020
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 582, s. 84-88
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Data analysis workflows in many scientific domains have become increasingly complex and flexible. Here we assess the effect of this flexibility on the results of functional magnetic resonance imaging by asking 70 independent teams to analyse the same dataset, testing the same 9 ex-ante hypotheses(1). The flexibility of analytical approaches is exemplified by the fact that no two teams chose identical workflows to analyse the data. This flexibility resulted in sizeable variation in the results of hypothesis tests, even for teams whose statistical maps were highly correlated at intermediate stages of the analysis pipeline. Variation in reported results was related to several aspects of analysis methodology. Notably, a meta-analytical approach that aggregated information across teams yielded a significant consensus in activated regions. Furthermore, prediction markets of researchers in the field revealed an overestimation of the likelihood of significant findings, even by researchers with direct knowledge of the dataset(2-5). Our findings show that analytical flexibility can have substantial effects on scientific conclusions, and identify factors that may be related to variability in the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging. The results emphasize the importance of validating and sharing complex analysis workflows, and demonstrate the need for performing and reporting multiple analyses of the same data. Potential approaches that could be used to mitigate issues related to analytical variability are discussed. The results obtained by seventy different teams analysing the same functional magnetic resonance imaging dataset show substantial variation, highlighting the influence of analytical choices and the importance of sharing workflows publicly and performing multiple analyses.
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| 5. |
- Cheng, Helen, et al.
(author)
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Biomedical, psychological, environmental and behavioural factors associated with adult obesity in a nationally representative sample
- 2020
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In: Journal of Public Health. - : Springer. - 1741-3842 .- 1741-3850. ; 42:3, s. 570-578
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To identify personality, biomedical and behavioural factors associated with adult obesity in a large longitudinal sample.METHOD: In total, 5360 participants with data on personality, neurological functioning, maternal smoking during pregnancy, education and occupation, physical exercise, adult self-reported BMI and obesity were included in the study. Obesity at 55 years was the outcome variable.RESULTS: The rates of obesity increased from 9.5 to 22.8% from age 33 to 55 years. Logistic regression analyses (adjusted estimates) showed that childhood neurological functioning (OR = 1.32: 1.07-1.63, P < 0.01), maternal smoking during pregnancy (OR = 1.42: 1.22-1.65, P < 0.001), educational qualifications (OR = 0.54: 0.37-0.79, P < 0.01), trait conscientiousness (OR = 0.80:0.74-0.86, P < 0.001) and physical exercise (OR = 0.87: 0.82-0.92, P < 0.001) were significant predictors of obesity at age 55 years for both men and women. Trait extraversion for men (OR = 1.16: 1.07-1.26, P < 0.001) and trait emotional stability for women (OR = 0.90: 0.82-0.99, P < 0.05) were also significant predictors of the outcome variable.CONCLUSION: Biomedical, psychological, environmental and behavioural factors were all associated with adult obesity.
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| 6. |
- Cheng, Helen, et al.
(author)
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Childhood heart problems, adulthood emotional stability, and sex associated with self-report heart conditions in adulthood
- 2021
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In: Journal of Health Psychology. - : Sage Publications. - 1359-1053 .- 1461-7277. ; 26:4, s. 489-499
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The present study investigated biomedical, social, and psychological factors associated with self-reported heart conditions in adulthood in a British cohort. In total, 5697 (50.7% males) participants with data on parental socioeconomic status, childhood cognitive ability, childhood heart problems, educational qualifications, current occupational levels, adulthood personality traits, and the prevalence of self-reported heart conditions in adulthood were included in the study. The prevalence of self-reported heart conditions measured at age 54 years was the outcome variable. Hierarchical logistic regression analysis showed that childhood heart problems identified by physicians (OR = 3.47:1.74-6.92, p < 0.001) and trait emotional stability (OR = 0.83:0.75-0.93, p < 0.001) were the significant and independent predictors of self-reported heart conditions in adulthood. There were also significant sex effects on the prevalence of the outcome variable (OR = 0.53:0.42-0.63, p < 0.001). Both a biomedical and a psychological factor were significantly associated with self-reported heart conditions in adulthood.
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| 7. |
- Docherty, Anna R, et al.
(author)
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GWAS Meta-Analysis of Suicide Attempt: Identification of 12 Genome-Wide Significant Loci and Implication of Genetic Risks for Specific Health Factors.
- 2023
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In: The American journal of psychiatry. - : American Psychiatric Association Publishing. - 1535-7228 .- 0002-953X. ; 180:10, s. 723-738
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Suicidal behavior is heritable and is a major cause of death worldwide. Two large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWASs) recently discovered and cross-validated genome-wide significant (GWS) loci for suicide attempt (SA). The present study leveraged the genetic cohorts from both studies to conduct the largest GWAS meta-analysis of SA to date. Multi-ancestry and admixture-specific meta-analyses were conducted within groups of significant African, East Asian, and European ancestry admixtures.This study comprised 22 cohorts, including 43,871 SA cases and 915,025 ancestry-matched controls. Analytical methods across multi-ancestry and individual ancestry admixtures included inverse variance-weighted fixed-effects meta-analyses, followed by gene, gene-set, tissue-set, and drug-target enrichment, as well as summary-data-based Mendelian randomization with brain expression quantitative trait loci data, phenome-wide genetic correlation, and genetic causal proportion analyses.Multi-ancestry and European ancestry admixture GWAS meta-analyses identified 12 risk loci at p values <5×10-8. These loci were mostly intergenic and implicated DRD2, SLC6A9, FURIN, NLGN1, SOX5, PDE4B, and CACNG2. The multi-ancestry SNP-based heritability estimate of SA was 5.7% on the liability scale (SE=0.003, p=5.7×10-80). Significant brain tissue gene expression and drug set enrichment were observed. There was shared genetic variation of SA with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, smoking, and risk tolerance after conditioning SA on both major depressive disorder and posttraumatic stress disorder. Genetic causal proportion analyses implicated shared genetic risk for specific health factors.This multi-ancestry analysis of suicide attempt identified several loci contributing to risk and establishes significant shared genetic covariation with clinical phenotypes. These findings provide insight into genetic factors associated with suicide attempt across ancestry admixture populations, in veteran and civilian populations, and in attempt versus death.
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| 8. |
- Heald, Adrian H., et al.
(author)
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Genetically defined favourable adiposity is not associated with a clinically meaningful difference in clinical course in people with type 2 diabetes but does associate with a favourable metabolic profile
- 2021
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In: Diabetic Medicine. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0742-3071 .- 1464-5491. ; 38:9
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- AimsChange in weight, HbA1c, lipids, blood pressure and cardiometabolic events over time is variable in individuals with type 2 diabetes. We hypothesized that people with a genetic predisposition to a more favourable adiposity distribution could have a less severe clinical course/progression.MethodsWe involved people with type 2 diabetes from two UK‐based cohorts: 11,914 individuals with GP follow‐up data from the UK Biobank and 723 from Salford. We generated a ‘favourable adiposity’ genetic score and conducted cross‐sectional and longitudinal studies to test its association with weight, BMI, lipids, blood pressure, medication use and risk of myocardial infarction and stroke using 15 follow‐up time points with 1‐year intervals.ResultsThe ‘favourable adiposity’ genetic score was cross‐sectionally associated with higher weight (effect size per 1 standard deviation higher genetic score: 0.91kg [0.59,1.23]) and BMI (0.30kg/m2 [0.19,0.40]), but higher high‐density lipoprotein (0.02mmol/L [0.01,0.02]) and lower triglycerides (‐0.04mmol/L [‐0.07,‐0.02]) in the UK Biobank at baseline, and this pattern of association was consistent across follow‐up.There was a trend for participants with higher ‘favourable adiposity’ genetic score to have lower risk of myocardial infarction and/or stroke (odds ratio 0.79 [0.62,1.00]) compared to those with lower score. A one standard deviation higher score was associated with lower odds of using lipid‐lowering (0.91 [0.86,0.97]) and anti‐hypertensive medication (0.95 [0.91,0.99]).ConclusionsIn individuals with type 2 diabetes, having more ‘favourable adiposity’ alleles is associated with a marginally better lipid profile long‐term and having lower odds of requiring lipid‐lowering or anti‐hypertensive medication in spite of relatively higher adiposity.
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| 9. |
- Mullins, Niamh, et al.
(author)
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Dissecting the Shared Genetic Architecture of Suicide Attempt, Psychiatric Disorders, and Known Risk Factors
- 2022
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In: Biological Psychiatry. - : Elsevier. - 0006-3223 .- 1873-2402. ; 91:3, s. 313-327
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, and nonfatal suicide attempts, which occur far more frequently, are a major source of disability and social and economic burden. Both have substantial genetic etiology, which is partially shared and partially distinct from that of related psychiatric disorders.METHODS: We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 29,782 suicide attempt (SA) cases and 519,961 controls in the International Suicide Genetics Consortium (ISGC). The GWAS of SA was conditioned on psychiatric disorders using GWAS summary statistics via multitrait-based conditional and joint analysis, to remove genetic effects on SA mediated by psychiatric disorders. We investigated the shared and divergent genetic architectures of SA, psychiatric disorders, and other known risk factors.RESULTS: Two loci reached genome-wide significance for SA: the major histocompatibility complex and an intergenic locus on chromosome 7, the latter of which remained associated with SA after conditioning on psychiatric disorders and replicated in an independent cohort from the Million Veteran Program. This locus has been implicated in risk-taking behavior, smoking, and insomnia. SA showed strong genetic correlation with psychiatric disorders, particularly major depression, and also with smoking, pain, risk-taking behavior, sleep disturbances, lower educational attainment, reproductive traits, lower socioeconomic status, and poorer general health. After conditioning on psychiatric disorders, the genetic correlations between SA and psychiatric disorders decreased, whereas those with nonpsychiatric traits remained largely unchanged.CONCLUSIONS: Our results identify a risk locus that contributes more strongly to SA than other phenotypes and suggest a shared underlying biology between SA and known risk factors that is not mediated by psychiatric disorders.
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| 10. |
- Patterson, Nick, et al.
(author)
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Large-scale migration into Britain during the Middle to Late Bronze Age
- 2022
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In: Nature. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; , s. 588-594
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Present-day people from England and Wales harbour more ancestry derived from Early European Farmers (EEF) than people of the Early Bronze Age1. To understand this, we generated genome-wide data from 793 individuals, increasing data from the Middle to Late Bronze and Iron Age in Britain by 12-fold, and Western and Central Europe by 3.5-fold. Between 1000 and 875 BC, EEF ancestry increased in southern Britain (England and Wales) but not northern Britain (Scotland) due to incorporation of migrants who arrived at this time and over previous centuries, and who were genetically most similar to ancient individuals from France. These migrants contributed about half the ancestry of Iron Age people of England and Wales, thereby creating a plausible vector for the spread of early Celtic languages into Britain. These patterns are part of a broader trend of EEF ancestry becoming more similar across central and western Europe in the Middle to Late Bronze Age, coincident with archaeological evidence of intensified cultural exchange2-6. There was comparatively less gene flow from continental Europe during the Iron Age, and Britain's independent genetic trajectory is also reflected in the rise of the allele conferring lactase persistence to ~50% by this time compared to ~7% in central Europe where it rose rapidly in frequency only a millennium later. This suggests that dairy products were used in qualitatively different ways in Britain and in central Europe over this period.
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