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- Jevrejeva, S, et al.
(författare)
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Potential for bias in 21st century semiempirical sea level projections
- 2012
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research. - 0148-0227 .- 2156-2202. ; 117, s. D20116-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We examine the limitations of a semiempirical model characterized by a sea level projection of 73 cm with RCP4.5 scenario by 2100. Calibrating the model with data to 1990 and then simulating the period 1993–2009 produces sea level in close agreement with acceleration in sea level rise observed by satellite altimetry. Nonradiative forcing contributors, such as long-term adjustment of Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets since Last Glacial Maximum, abyssal ocean warming, and terrestrial water storage, may bias model calibration which, if corrected for, tend to reduce median sea level projections at 2100 by 2–10 cm, though this is within the confidence interval. We apply the semiempirical approach to simulate individual contributions from thermal expansion and small glacier melting. Steric sea level projections agree within 3 cm of output from process-based climate models. In contrast, semiempirical simulation of melting from glaciers is 26 cm, which is twice large as estimates from some process-based models; however, all process models lack simulation of calving, which likely accounts for 50% of small glacier mass loss worldwide. Furthermore, we suggest that changes in surface mass balance and dynamics of Greenland ice sheet made contributions to the sea level rise in the early 20th century and therefore are included within the semiempirical model calibration period and hence are included in semiempirical sea level projections by 2100. Antarctic response is probably absent from semiempirical models, which will lead to a underestimate in sea level rise if, as is probable, Antarctica loses mass by 2100.
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| 2. |
- Jevrejeva, S., et al.
(författare)
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Sea level projections to AD2500 with a new generation of climate change scenarios
- 2012
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Ingår i: Global and Planetary Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0921-8181 .- 1872-6364. ; 80-81, s. 14-20
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sea level rise over the coming centuries is perhaps the most damaging side of rising temperature (Anthoff et al., 2009). The economic costs and social consequences of coastal flooding and forced migration will probably be one of the dominant impacts of global warming (Sugiyama et al., 2008). To date, however, few studies (Nicholls et al., 2008; Anthoff et al., 2009) on infrastructure and socio-economic planning include provision for multi-century and multi-metre rises in mean sea level. Here we use a physically plausible sea level model constrained by observations, and forced with four new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) radiative forcing scenarios (Moss et al., 2010) to project median sea level rises of 0.57 for the lowest forcing and 1.10 m for the highest forcing by 2100 which rise to 1.84 and 5.49 m respectively by 2500. Sea level will continue to rise for several centuries even after stabilisation of radiative forcing with most of the rise after 2100 due to the long response time of sea level. The rate of sea level rise would be positive for centuries, requiring 200-400 years to drop to the 1.8 mm/yr 20th century average, except for the RCP3PD which would rely on geoengineering.
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