| 1. |
- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 2. |
- Pennells, Lisa, et al.
(författare)
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Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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| 3. |
- Dent, E., et al.
(författare)
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Physical Frailty : ICFSR International Clinical Practice Guidelines for Identification and Management
- 2019
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Ingår i: The Journal of Nutrition, Health & Aging. - : SPRINGER FRANCE. - 1279-7707 .- 1760-4788. ; 23:9, s. 771-787
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: The task force of the International Conference of Frailty and Sarcopenia Research (ICFSR) developed these clinical practice guidelines to overview the current evidence-base and to provide recommendations for the identification and management of frailty in older adults.Methods: These recommendations were formed using the GRADE approach, which ranked the strength and certainty (quality) of the supporting evidence behind each recommendation. Where the evidence-base was limited or of low quality, Consensus Based Recommendations (CBRs) were formulated. The recommendations focus on the clinical and practical aspects of care for older people with frailty, and promote person-centred care.Recommendations for Screening and Assessment: The task force recommends that health practitioners case identify/screen all older adults for frailty using a validated instrument suitable for the specific setting or context (strong recommendation). Ideally, the screening instrument should exclude disability as part of the screening process. For individuals screened as positive for frailty, a more comprehensive clinical assessment should be performed to identify signs and underlying mechanisms of frailty (strong recommendation).Recommendations for Management: A comprehensive care plan for frailty should address polypharmacy (whether rational or nonrational), the management of sarcopenia, the treatable causes of weight loss, and the causes of exhaustion (depression, anaemia, hypotension, hypothyroidism, and B12 deficiency) (strong recommendation). All persons with frailty should receive social support as needed to address unmet needs and encourage adherence to a comprehensive care plan (strong recommendation). First-line therapy for the management of frailty should include a multi-component physical activity programme with a resistance-based training component (strong recommendation). Protein/caloric supplementation is recommended when weight loss or undernutrition are present (conditional recommendation). No recommendation was given for systematic additional therapies such as cognitive therapy, problem-solving therapy, vitamin D supplementation, and hormone-based treatment. Pharmacological treatment as presently available is not recommended therapy for the treatment of frailty.
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| 4. |
- Dent, E., et al.
(författare)
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International Clinical Practice Guidelines for Sarcopenia (ICFSR) : Screening, Diagnosis and Management
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Journal of Nutrition, Health & Aging. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1279-7707 .- 1760-4788. ; 22:10, s. 1148-1161
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives: Sarcopenia, defined as an age-associated loss of skeletal muscle function and muscle mass, occurs in approximately 6 - 22 % of older adults. This paper presents evidence-based clinical practice guidelines for screening, diagnosis and management of sarcopenia from the task force of the International Conference on Sarcopenia and Frailty Research (ICSFR).Methods: To develop the guidelines, we drew upon the best available evidence from two systematic reviews paired with consensus statements by international working groups on sarcopenia. Eight topics were selected for the recommendations: (i) defining sarcopenia; (ii) screening and diagnosis; (iii) physical activity prescription; (iv) protein supplementation; (v) vitamin D supplementation; (vi) anabolic hormone prescription; (vii) medications under development; and (viii) research. The ICSFR task force evaluated the evidence behind each topic including the quality of evidence, the benefit harm balance of treatment, patient preferences/values, and cost-effectiveness. Recommendations were graded as either strong or conditional (weak) as per the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) approach. Consensus was achieved via one face-to-face workshop and a modified Delphi process.Recommendations: We make a conditional recommendation for the use of an internationally accepted measurement tool for the diagnosis of sarcopenia including the EWGSOP and FNIH definitions, and advocate for rapid screening using gait speed or the SARC-F. To treat sarcopenia, we strongly recommend the prescription of resistance-based physical activity, and conditionally recommend protein supplementation/a protein-rich diet. No recommendation is given for Vitamin D supplementation or for anabolic hormone prescription. There is a lack of robust evidence to assess the strength of other treatment options.
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| 6. |
- Guralnik, B., et al.
(författare)
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OSL-thermochronometry using bedrock quartz : A note of caution
- 2015
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Ingår i: Quaternary Geochronology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1871-1014 .- 1878-0350. ; 25, s. 37-48
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) thermochronometry is an emerging application, whose capability to record sub-Million-year thermal histories is of increasing interest to a growing number of subdisciplines of Quaternary research. However, several recent studies have encountered difficulties both in extraction of OSL signals from bedrock quartz, and in their thermochronometric interpretation, thus highlighting the need for a methodological benchmark. Here, we investigate the characteristic OSL signals from quartz samples across all major types of bedrock and covering a wide range of chemical purities. High ratios of infrared to blue stimulated luminescence (IRSL/BLSL), an insensitive 'fast' OSL component, and anomalously short recombination lifetimes seen in time-resolved luminescence (TROSL), are often encountered in quartz from crystalline (magmatic and metamorphic) bedrock, and may hamper successful OSL dating. Furthermore, even when the desirable signal is present, its concentration might be indistinguishable from its environmental steady-state prediction, thus preventing its conversion to a cooling or heating history. We explore the saturation properties and the thermal activation parameters of various OSL signals in quartz to outline the capabilities and limitations for their use in low-temperature thermochronometry.
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