| 1. |
- Heudorfer, B., et al.
(författare)
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Index-Based Characterization and Quantification of Groundwater Dynamics
- 2019
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Ingår i: Water Resources Research. - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 55:7, s. 5575-5592
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Time series of groundwater head measurements serve as a primary source of information on groundwater systems. In different groundwater systems, and across several scales, we observe a multitude of patterns in groundwater time series, resulting from complex hydrogeological setups. Unlike in surface hydrology, there is no generalized classification to categorize and quantify the dynamics in groundwater time series. This leads to a lack of tools that could help us disentangle the information contained in groundwater time series in a systematic way. To approach such a classification, we present a principle for organization to qualitatively describe and to quantify groundwater dynamics in a nonredundant and data efficient way. We devise a descriptive typology of groundwater dynamics and assign quantitative measures, mathematically expressing these dynamics. Based on an extensive data set of daily groundwater hydrographs from central Europe, we analyze the relationship between indices and typology based on principal component analysis. The principal component analysis is also used to investigate and discuss redundancy, that is, indices expressing similar information content of hydrographs. Further, the indices' sensitivity to measurement interval and length of the overall observed period is investigated. Finally, a case study demonstrates the potential of the typology and index approach to link groundwater dynamics to the underlying hydrogeological process controls. The tools provided for characterization and quantification of groundwater dynamics should improve future efforts of groundwater classification and prediction in ungauged aquifers and other applications. ©2019. The Authors.
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| 2. |
- Sundell, Jonas, 1984, et al.
(författare)
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Comprehensive risk assessment of groundwater drawdown induced subsidence
- 2019
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Ingår i: Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3240 .- 1436-3259. ; 33:2, s. 427-449
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2019, The Author(s). We present a method for risk assessment of groundwater drawdown induced land subsidence when planning for sub-surface infrastructure. Since groundwater drawdown and related subsidence can occur at large distances from the points of inflow, the large spatial extent often implies heterogeneous geological conditions that cannot be described in complete detail. This calls for estimation of uncertainties in all components of the cause-effect chain with probabilistic methods. In this study, we couple four probabilistic methods into a comprehensive model for economic risk quantification: a geostatistical soil-stratification model, an inverse calibrated groundwater model, an elasto-plastic subsidence model, and a model describing the resulting damages and costs on individual buildings and constructions. Groundwater head measurements, hydraulic tests, statistical analyses of stratification and soil properties and an inventory of buildings are inputs to the models. In the coupled method, different design alternatives for risk reduction measures are evaluated. Integration of probabilities and damage costs result in an economic risk estimate for each alternative. Compared with the risk for a reference alternative, the best prior alternative is identified as the alternative with the highest expected net benefit. The results include spatial probabilistic risk estimates for each alternative where areas with significant risk are distinguished from low-risk areas. The efficiency and usefulness of this modelling approach as a tool for communication to stakeholders, decision support for prioritization of risk reducing measures, and identification of the need for further investigations and monitoring are demonstrated with a case study of a planned railway tunnel in Varberg, Sweden.
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| 3. |
- Sundell, Jonas, 1984, et al.
(författare)
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Economic valuation of hydrogeological information when managing groundwater drawdown
- 2019
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Ingår i: Hydrogeology Journal. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1431-2174 .- 1435-0157. ; 27:4, s. 1111-1130
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2019, The Author(s). A procedure is presented for valuation of information analysis (VOIA) to determine the need for additional information when assessing the effect of several design alternatives to manage future disturbances in hydrogeological systems. When planning for groundwater extraction and drawdown in areas where risks—such as land subsidence, wells running dry and drainage of streams and wetlands—are present, the need for risk-reducing safety measures must be carefully evaluated and managed. The heterogeneity of the subsurface calls for an assessment of trade-offs between the benefits of additional information to reduce the risk of erroneous decisions and the cost of collecting this information. A method is suggested that combines existing procedures for inverse probabilistic groundwater modelling with a novel method for VOIA. The method results in (1) a prior analysis where uncertainties regarding the efficiency of safety measures are estimated, and (2) a pre-posterior analysis, where the benefits of expected uncertainty reduction deriving from additional information are compared with the costs for obtaining this information. In comparison with existing approaches for VOIA, the method can assess multiple design alternatives, use hydrogeological parameters as proxies for failure, and produce spatially distributed VOIA maps. The method is demonstrated for a case study of a planned tunnel in Stockholm, Sweden, where additional investigations produce a low number of benefits as a result of low failure rates for the studied alternatives and a cause-effect chain where the resulting failure probability is more dependent on interactions within the whole system rather than on specific features.
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| 4. |
- Sundell, Jonas, 1984, et al.
(författare)
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Risk Mapping of Groundwater-Drawdown-Induced Land Subsidence in Heterogeneous Soils on Large Areas
- 2019
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Ingår i: Risk Analysis. - : Wiley. - 0272-4332 .- 1539-6924. ; 39:1, s. 105-124
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Groundwater leakage into subsurface constructions can cause reduction of pore pressure and subsidence in clay deposits, even at large distances from the location of the construction. The potential cost of damage is substantial, particularly in urban areas. The large-scale process also implies heterogeneous soil conditions that cannot be described in complete detail, which causes a need for estimating uncertainty of subsidence with probabilistic methods. In this study, the risk for subsidence is estimated by coupling two probabilistic models, a geostatistics-based soil stratification model with a subsidence model. Statistical analyses of stratification and soil properties are inputs into the models. The results include spatially explicit probabilistic estimates of subsidence magnitude and sensitivities of included model parameters. From these, areas with significant risk for subsidence are distinguished from low-risk areas. The efficiency and usefulness of this modeling approach as a tool for communication to stakeholders, decision support for prioritization of risk-reducing measures, and identification of the need for further investigations and monitoring are demonstrated with a case study of a planned tunnel in Stockholm.
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