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- Hagstrom, Hannes, et al.
(författare)
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Accuracy of Noninvasive Scoring Systems in Assessing Risk of Death and Liver-Related Endpoints in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease
- 2019
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Ingår i: Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology. - : Saunders Elsevier. - 1542-3565 .- 1542-7714. ; 17:6, s. 1148-1156.e4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background and AimsSeveral non-invasive scoring systems have been developed to determine risk of advanced fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We examined the association between 4 scoring systems and incident severe liver disease and overall mortality in a large cohort of patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD.MethodsWe performed a retrospective analysis of data from 646 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD, recruited from 2 hospitals in Sweden, from 1971 through 2009. The NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), FIB-4, APRI, and BARD scores were calculated at the time of the liver biopsy. Based on each score, patients were assigned to categories of low, intermediate, or high risk for advanced fibrosis. Overall mortality and severe liver disease (cirrhosis, decompensated liver disease, liver failure, or hepatocellular carcinoma) were ascertained through linkage with national registers until the end of 2014. Cox regression, area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, and C-statistic analyses were used to study the predictive capacity of each scoring system.ResultsDuring a mean follow-up time of 19.9±8.7 years, there were 214 deaths and 76 cases of severe liver disease. For overall mortality, AUROC curve values were: NFS, 0.72 (95% CI, 0.68–0.76); FIB-4, 0.72 (95% CI, 0.68–0.76); BARD, 0.62 (95% CI, 0.58–0.66); and APRI, 0.52 (95% CI, 0.47–0.57). For severe liver disease, AUROC curve values were: NFS, 0.72 (95% CI, 0.66–0.78); FIB-4, 0.72 (95% CI, 0.66–0.79); BARD, 0.62 (95% CI, 0.55–0.69); APRI, 0.69 (95% CI, 0.63–0.76). C-statistics for all scores were of moderate capacity to predict outcomes.ConclusionsIn a retrospective analysis of data from 646 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD, we found the NFS and the FIB-4 scores to most accurately determine risk of overall death or severe liver disease. However, the AUROC values for these scoring systems are not high enough for use in the clinic; new systems are needed to determine prognoses of patients with NAFLD.
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| 2. |
- Hagstrom, Hannes, et al.
(författare)
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Cardiovascular risk factors in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease
- 2019
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Ingår i: Liver international (Print). - : WILEY. - 1478-3223 .- 1478-3231. ; 39:1, s. 197-204
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background amp; Aims Patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are at an increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). It is unclear whether histological variables may help predict CVD risk. We evaluated histology and traditional CV risk factors as predictors of CVD outcomes in a large NAFLD cohort. Methods We included 603 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients free of baseline CVD and matched these (1:10, by age, sex and municipality) to 6269 population controls. All individuals were cross-linked to national registries to ascertain incident CVD events, defined as acute ischaemic heart disease or stroke. The presence of CV risk factors and liver histology were available in NAFLD patients only. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for incident CVD. Results During a mean follow-up of 18.6 years, 168 (28%) of NAFLD patients and 1325 (21%) of controls experienced a CVD event (HR 1.54, 95%CI 1.30-1.83). Within the NAFLD cohort, age, male sex, type 2 diabetes, smoking and triglycerides were associated with risk of CVD. Taking these CV risk factors into account, no histological parameter, including presence of NASH and fibrosis stage, were associated with incident CVD. Conclusions Patients with NAFLD are at an increased risk for CVD compared to matched controls, but histological parameters do not seem to independently predict this risk.
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