| 1. |
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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 2. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
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| 3. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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| 4. |
- Ademuyiwa, Adesoji O., et al.
(författare)
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Determinants of morbidity and mortality following emergency abdominal surgery in children in low-income and middle-income countries
- 2016
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Ingår i: BMJ Global Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2059-7908. ; 1:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Child health is a key priority on the global health agenda, yet the provision of essential and emergency surgery in children is patchy in resource-poor regions. This study was aimed to determine the mortality risk for emergency abdominal paediatric surgery in low-income countries globally.Methods: Multicentre, international, prospective, cohort study. Self-selected surgical units performing emergency abdominal surgery submitted prespecified data for consecutive children aged <16 years during a 2-week period between July and December 2014. The United Nation's Human Development Index (HDI) was used to stratify countries. The main outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality, analysed by multilevel logistic regression.Results: This study included 1409 patients from 253 centres in 43 countries; 282 children were under 2 years of age. Among them, 265 (18.8%) were from low-HDI, 450 (31.9%) from middle-HDI and 694 (49.3%) from high-HDI countries. The most common operations performed were appendectomy, small bowel resection, pyloromyotomy and correction of intussusception. After adjustment for patient and hospital risk factors, child mortality at 30 days was significantly higher in low-HDI (adjusted OR 7.14 (95% CI 2.52 to 20.23), p<0.001) and middle-HDI (4.42 (1.44 to 13.56), p=0.009) countries compared with high-HDI countries, translating to 40 excess deaths per 1000 procedures performed.Conclusions: Adjusted mortality in children following emergency abdominal surgery may be as high as 7 times greater in low-HDI and middle-HDI countries compared with high-HDI countries. Effective provision of emergency essential surgery should be a key priority for global child health agendas.
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| 5. |
- Patton, H., et al.
(författare)
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Deglaciation of the Eurasian ice sheet complex
- 2017
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 169, s. 148-172
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Eurasian ice sheet complex (EISC) was the third largest ice mass during the Last Glacial Maximum with a span of over 4500 km and responsible for around 20 m of eustatic sea-level lowering. Whilst recent terrestrial and marine empirical insights have improved understanding of the chronology, pattern and rates of retreat of this vast ice sheet, a concerted attempt to model the deglaciation of the EISC honouring these new constraints is conspicuously lacking. Here, we apply a first-order, thermo-mechanical ice sheet model, validated against a diverse suite of empirical data, to investigate the retreat of the EISC after 23 ka BP, directly extending the work of Patton et al. (2016) who modelled the build-up to its maximum extent. Retreat of the ice sheet complex was highly asynchronous, reflecting contrasting regional sensitivities to climate forcing, oceanic influence, and internal dynamics. Most rapid retreat was experienced across the Barents Sea sector after 17.8 ka BP when this marine-based ice sheet disintegrated at a rate of similar to 670 gigatonnes per year (Gt a(-1)) through enhanced calving and interior dynamic thinning, driven by oceanic/atmospheric warming and exacerbated by eustatic sea-level rise. From 14.9 to 12.9 ka BP the EISC lost on average 750 Gt a(-1), peaking at rates >3000 Gt a(-1), roughly equally partitioned between surface melt and dynamic losses, and potentially contributing up to 2.5 m to global sea-level rise during Meltwater Pulse 1A. Independent glacio-isostatic modelling constrained by an extensive inventory of relative sea-level change corroborates our ice sheet loading history of the Barents Sea sector. Subglacial conditions were predominately temperate during deglaciation, with over 6000 subglacial lakes predicted along with an extensive subglacial drainage network. Moreover, the maximum EISC and its isostatic footprint had a profound impact on the proglacial hydrological network, forming the Fleuve Manche mega-catchment which had an area of similar to 2.5 x 10(6) km(2) and drained the present day Vistula, Elbe, Rhine and Thames rivers through the Seine Estuary. During the Bolling/Allerod oscillation after c. 14.6 ka BP, two major proglacial lakes formed in the Baltic and White seas, buffering meltwater pulses from eastern Fennoscandia through to the Younger Dryas when these massive proglacial freshwater lakes flooded into the North Atlantic Ocean. Deglaciation temporarily abated during the Younger Dryas stadial at 12.9 ka BP, when remnant ice across Svalbard, Franz Josef Land, Novaya Zemlya, Fennoscandia and Scotland experienced a short-lived but dynamic re-advance. The final stage of deglaciation converged on present day ice cover around the Scandes mountains and the Barents Sea by 8.7 ka BP, although the phas-lagged isostatic recovery still continues today. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 6. |
- Edger, Patrick P., et al.
(författare)
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The butterfly plant arms-race escalated by gene and genome duplications
- 2015
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 112:27, s. 8362-8366
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Coevolutionary interactions are thought to have spurred the evolution of key innovations and driven the diversification of much of life on Earth. However, the genetic and evolutionary basis of the innovations that facilitate such interactions remains poorly understood. We examined the coevolutionary interactions between plants (Brassicales) and butterflies (Pieridae), and uncovered evidence for an escalating evolutionary arms-race. Although gradual changes in trait complexity appear to have been facilitated by allelic turnover, key innovations are associated with gene and genome duplications. Furthermore, we show that the origins of both chemical defenses and of molecular counter adaptations were associated with shifts in diversification rates during the arms-race. These findings provide an important connection between the origins of biodiversity, coevolution, and the role of gene and genome duplications as a substrate for novel traits.
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| 7. |
- Hall, Adrian M., et al.
(författare)
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Fracture controls on valley persistence : the Cairngorm Granite pluton, Scotland
- 2017
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Ingår i: International journal of earth sciences. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1437-3254 .- 1437-3262. ; 106:6, s. 2203-2219
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Valleys are remarkably persistent features in many different tectonic settings, but the reasons for this persistence are rarely explored. Here, we examine the structural controls on valleys in the Cairngorms Mountains, Scotland, part of the passive margin of the eastern North Atlantic. We consider valleys at three scales: straths, glens and headwater valleys. The structural controls on valleys in and around the Cairngorm Granite pluton were examined on satellite and aerial photographs and by field survey. Topographic lineaments, including valleys, show no consistent orientation with joint sets or with sheets of microgranite and pegmatitic granite. In this granite landscape, jointing is not a first-order control on valley development. Instead, glens and headwater valleys align closely to quartz veins and linear alteration zones (LAZs). LAZs are zones of weakness in the granite pluton in which late-stage hydrothermal alteration and hydro-fracturing have greatly reduced rock mass strength and increased permeability. LAZs, which can be kilometres long and > 700 m deep, are the dominant controls on the orientation of valleys in the Cairngorms. LAZs formed in the roof zone of the granite intrusion. Although the Cairngorm pluton was unroofed soon after emplacement, the presence of Old Red Sandstone (ORS) outliers in the terrain to the north and east indicates that the lower relief of the sub-ORS basement surface has been lowered by < 500 m. Hence, the valley patterns in and around the Cairngorms have persisted through > 1 km of vertical erosion and for 400 Myr. This valley persistence is a combined product of regionally low rates of basement exhumation and of the existence of LAZs in the Cairngorm pluton and sub-parallel Caledonide fractures in the surrounding terrain with depths that exceed 1 km.
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| 8. |
- Smith, David E., et al.
(författare)
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Quaternary sea level change in Scotland
- 2019
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Ingår i: Earth and environmental science transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh. - 1755-6910 .- 1755-6929. ; 110:1-2, s. 219-256
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper summarises developments in understanding sea level change during the Quaternary in Scotland since the publication of the Quaternary of Scotland Geological Conservation Review volume in 1993. We present a review of progress in methodology, particularly in the study of sediments in isolation basins and estuaries as well as in techniques in the field and laboratory, which have together disclosed greater detail in the record of relative sea level (RSL) change than was available in 1993. However, progress in determining the record of RSL change varies in different areas. Studies of sediments and stratigraphy offshore on the continental shelf have increased greatly, but the record of RSL change there remains patchy. Studies onshore have resulted in improvements in the knowledge of rock shorelines, including the processes by which they are formed, but much remains to be understood. Studies of Late Devensian and Holocene RSLs around present coasts have improved knowledge of both the extent and age range of the evidence. The record of RSL change on the W and NW coasts has disclosed a much longer dated RSL record than was available before 1993, possibly with evidence of Meltwater Pulse 1A, while studies in estuaries on the E and SW coasts have disclosed widespread and consistent fluctuations in Holocene RSLs. Evidence for the meltwater pulse associated with the Early Holocene discharge of Lakes Agassiz-Ojibway in N America has been found on both E and W coasts. The effects of the impact of storminess, in particular in cliff-top storm deposits, have been widely identified. Further information on the Holocene Storegga Slide tsunami has enabled a better understanding of the event, but evidence for other tsunami events on Scottish coasts remains uncertain. Methodological developments have led to new reconstructions of RSL change for the last 2000 years, utilising state-of-the-art GIA models and alongside coastal biostratigraphy to determine trends to compare with modern tide gauge and documentary evidence. Developments in GIA modelling have provided valuable information on patterns of land uplift during and following deglaciation. The studies undertaken raise a number of research questions which will require addressing in future work.
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| 9. |
- Sugden, David E., et al.
(författare)
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Plucking enhanced beneath ice sheet margins : evidence from the Grampian Mountains, Scotland
- 2019
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Ingår i: Geografiska Annaler. Series A, Physical Geography. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0435-3676 .- 1468-0459. ; 101:1, s. 34-44
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Concentrations of boulders are a common feature of landscapes modified by former mid-latitude ice sheets. In many cases, the origin of the boulders can be traced in the up-ice direction to a cliff only tens to hundreds of metres distant. The implication is that a pulse of plucking and short boulder transport occurred beneath thin ice at the end of the last glacial cycle. Here we use a case study in granite bedrock in the Dee Valley, Scotland, to constrain theory and explore the factors involved in such a late phase of plucking. Plucking is influenced by ice velocity, hydrology, effective ice pressure, the extent of subglacial cavities and bedrock characteristics. The balance between these factors favours block removal beneath thin ice near a glacier margin. At Ripe Hill in the Dee Valley, a mean exposure age of 14.2 ka on blocks supports the view that the boulder train formed at the end of ice sheet glaciation. The late pulse of plucking was further enhanced by ice flowing obliquely across vertical joints and by fluctuations in sub-marginal meltwater conditions. An implication of the study is that there is the potential for a wave of ice-marginal plucking to sweep across a landscape as an ice sheet retreats.
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| 10. |
- Ebert, Karin, 1976-, et al.
(författare)
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Unequal ice-sheet erosional impacts across low-relief shield terrain in northern Fennoscandia
- 2015
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Ingår i: Geomorphology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0169-555X .- 1872-695X. ; 233:SI, s. 64-74
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Much previous work on Late Cenozoic glacial erosion patterns in bedrock has focussed on mountain areas. Here we identify varying impacts of ice sheet erosion on the low-relief bedrock surface of the Fennoscandian shield, and examine the geological, topographical and glaciological controls on these patterns.We combine GIS-mapping of topographical, hydrological and weathering data with field observations. We identify and investigate areas with similar geology and general low relief that show different degrees of ice sheet erosional impact, despite similar ice cover histories. On two transects with a total area of ~ 84 000 km2 across the northern Fennoscandian shield, we first establish patterns of glacial erosion and then examine why glacially streamlined areas exist adjacent to areas of negligible glacial erosion. The northern transect includes two areas of exceptional glacial preservation, the Parkajoki area in Sweden and the so-called ice divide zone in Finland, each of which preserve tors and deep saprolite covers. The southern transect, overlapping in the northern part with the first transect, includes areas of well developed glacial streamlining, with bedrock areas stripped of loose material and barely any weathering remnants.For both areas, we firstly present contrasting indicators for ice sheet erosional impact: streamlined and non-streamlined inselbergs; parallel and dendritic/rectangular drainage patterns; and the absence and presence of Neogene weathering remnants. This is followed by an investigation of factors that possibly influence ice sheet erosional impact: ice cover history, ice cover duration and thickness, bedrock type and structure, and topography.We find that the erosional impact of the Fennoscandian ice sheet has varied across the study area. Distinct zones of ice sheet erosion are identified in which indicators of either low or high erosion coexist in the same parts of the transects. No direct impact of rock type on glacial erosion patterns was found, but an indirect control appears clear. Bedrock geology and long-term differential weathering and tectonic evolution determined the topography of the pre-glacial landscape, and these topographic differences subsequently influenced ice sheet dynamics and thereby partly controlled patterns of ice sheet erosion. Ice cover duration and former ice thickness were not significant controls on glacial erosion patterns. Extensive preservation of pre-glacial relief through low glacial erosion is attributed to the maintenance throughout the Pleistocene of divergent flow and frozen-bed conditions in the Fennoscandian ice sheet. In contrast, glacial streamlining and strong glacial erosion were caused mainly by acceleration of flow around major obstacles and flow towards major depressions on the ice sheet bed. The relatively strong ice sheet erosion towards the Gulf of Bothnia is the result of a combination of favourable factors: bedrock structure and river valleys aligned sub-parallel to ice sheet flow and convergent ice flow towards the Baltic.
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