| 1. |
- Bauwens, Maite, et al.
(författare)
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Recent past (1979-2014) and future (2070-2099) isoprene fluxes over Europe simulated with the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model
- 2018
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 15:12, s. 3673-3690
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Isoprene is a highly reactive volatile organic compound emitted by vegetation, known to be a precursor of secondary organic aerosols and to enhance tropospheric ozone formation under polluted conditions. Isoprene emissions respond strongly to changes in meteorological parameters such as temperature and solar radiation. In addition, the increasing CO2 concentration has a dual effect, as it causes both a direct emission inhibition as well as an increase in biomass through fertilization. In this study we used the MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature) emission model coupled with the MOHYCAN (Model of HYdrocarbon emissions by the CANopy) canopy model to calculate the isoprene fluxes emitted by vegetation in the recent past (1979-2014) and in the future (2070-2099) over Europe at a resolution of 0.1° × 0.1°. As a result of the changing climate, modeled isoprene fluxes increased by 1.1%yr-1 on average in Europe over 1979-2014, with the strongest trends found over eastern Europe and European Russia, whereas accounting for the CO2 inhibition effect led to reduced emission trends (0.76%yr-1). Comparisons with field campaign measurements at seven European sites suggest that the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model provides a reliable representation of the temporal variability of the isoprene fluxes over timescales between 1h and several months. For the 1979-2014 period the model was driven by the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis fields, whereas for the comparison of current with projected future emissions, we used meteorology simulated with the ALARO regional climate model. Depending on the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios for greenhouse gas concentration trajectories driving the climate projections, isoprene emissions were found to increase by +7% (RCP2.6), +33% (RCP4.5), and +83% (RCP8.5), compared to the control simulation, and even stronger increases were found when considering the potential impact of CO2 fertilization: +15% (RCP2.6), +52% (RCP4.5), and +141% (RCP8.5). However, the inhibitory CO2 effect goes a long way towards canceling these increases. Based on two distinct parameterizations, representing strong or moderate inhibition, the projected emissions accounting for all effects were estimated to be 0-17% (strong inhibition) and 11-65% (moderate inhibition) higher than in the control simulation. The difference obtained using the two CO2 parameterizations underscores the large uncertainty associated to this effect.
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| 2. |
- Nicolini, Giacomo, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of CO2 storage flux sampling uncertainty on net ecosystem exchange measured by eddy covariance
- 2018
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Ingår i: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0168-1923. ; 248, s. 228-239
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Complying with several assumption and simplifications, most of the carbon budget studies based on eddy covariance (EC) measurements quantify the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) by summing the flux obtained by EC (FC) and the storage flux (SC). SC is the rate of change of a scalar, CO2 molar fraction in this case, within the control volume underneath the EC measurement level. It is given by the difference in the quasi-instantaneous profiles of concentration at the beginning and end of the EC averaging period, divided by the averaging period. The approaches used to estimate SC largely vary, from measurements based on a single sampling point usually located at the EC measurement height, to measurements based on profile sampling. Generally a single profile is used, although multiple profiles can be positioned within the control volume. Measurement accuracy reasonably increases with the spatial sampling intensity, however limited resources often prevent more elaborated measurement systems. In this study we use the experimental dataset collected during the ADVEX campaign in which turbulent and non-turbulent fluxes were measured in three forest sites by the simultaneous use of five towers/profiles. Our main objectives are to evaluate both the uncertainty of SC that derives from an insufficient sampling of CO2 variability, and its impact on concurrent NEE estimates.Results show that different measurement methods may produce substantially different SC flux estimates which in some cases involve a significant underestimation of the actual SC at a half-hourly time scales. A proper measuring system, that uses a single vertical profile of which the CO2 sampled at 3 points (the two closest to the ground and the one at the lower fringe of the canopy layer) is averaged with CO2 sampled at a certain distance and at the same height, improves the horizontal representativeness and reduces this (proportional) bias to 2–10% in such ecosystems. While the effect of this error is minor on long term NEE estimates, it can produce significant uncertainty on half-hourly NEE fluxes.
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