| 1. |
- Heuzé, Céline, 1988
(författare)
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Antarctic Bottom Water and North Atlantic Deep Water in CMIP6 models
- 2021
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Ingår i: Ocean Science. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1812-0784 .- 1812-0792. ; 17:1, s. 59-90
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Deep and bottom water formation are crucial components of the global ocean circulation, yet they were poorly represented in the previous generation of climate models. We here quantify biases in Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) and North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation, properties, transport, and global extent in 35 climate models that participated in the latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Several CMIP6 models are correctly forming AABW via shelf processes, but 28 models in the Southern Ocean and all 35 models in the North Atlantic form deep and bottom water via open-ocean deep convection too deeply, too often, and/or over too large an area. Models that convect the least form the most accurate AABW but the least accurate NADW. The four CESM2 models with their overflow parameterisation are among the most accurate models. In the Atlantic, the colder the AABW, the stronger the abyssal overturning at 30 degrees S, and the further north the AABW layer extends. The saltier the NADW, the stronger the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and the further south the NADW layer extends. In the Indian and Pacific oceans in contrast, the fresher models are the ones which extend the furthest regardless of the strength of their abyssal overturning, most likely because they are also the models with the weakest fronts in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. There are clear improvements since CMIP5: several CMIP6 models correctly represent or parameterise Antarctic shelf processes, fewer models exhibit Southern Ocean deep convection, more models convect at the right location in the Labrador Sea, bottom density biases are reduced, and abyssal overturning is more realistic. However, more improvements are required, e.g. by generalising the use of overflow parameterisations or by coupling to interactive ice sheet models, before deep and bottom water formation, and hence heat and carbon storage, are represented accurately.
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| 2. |
- Heuzé, Céline, 1988, et al.
(författare)
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Spaceborne infrared imagery for early detection of Weddell Polynya opening
- 2021
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Ingår i: Cryosphere. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1994-0416. ; 15:7, s. 3401-3421
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Knowing when sea ice will open is crucial, notably for scientific deployments. This was particularly obvious when the Weddell Polynya, a large opening in the winter Southern Ocean sea ice, unexpectedly re-appeared in 2016. As no precursor had been detected, observations were limited to chance autonomous sensors, and the exact cause of the opening could not be determined accurately. We investigate here whether the signature of the vertical ocean motions or that of the leads, which ultimately re-open the polynya, are detectable in spaceborne infrared temperature before the polynya opens. From the full historical sea ice concentration record, we find 30 polynyas starting from 1980. Then, using the full time series of the spaceborne infrared Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, we determine that these events can be detected in the 2 weeks before the polynya opens as a reduction in the variance of the data. For the three commonly used infrared brightness temperature bands, the 15 d sum and 15 d standard deviation of their area median and maximum are systematically lower than the climatology when a polynya will open. Moreover, by comparing the infrared brightness temperature to atmospheric reanalysis, hydrographic mooring data, and autonomous profilers, we find that temporal oscillations in one band and the decrease in the difference between bands may be used as proxies for upwelling of warm water and presence of leads, respectively, albeit with caution. Therefore, although infrared data are strongly limited by their horizontal resolution and sensitivity to clouds, they could be used for studying ocean or atmosphere preconditioning of polynyas in the historical record.
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| 3. |
- Mohrmann, Martin, et al.
(författare)
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Southern Ocean polynyas in CMIP6 models
- 2021
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Ingår i: The Cryosphere. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1994-0416 .- 1994-0424. ; 15:9, s. 4281-4313
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Polynyas facilitate air–sea fluxes, impacting climate-relevant properties such as sea ice formation and deep water production. Despite their importance, polynyas have been poorly represented in past generations of climate models. Here we present a method to track the presence, frequency and spatial distribution of polynyas in the Southern Ocean in 27 models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and two satellite-based sea ice products. Only half of the 27 models form open-water polynyas (OWPs), and most underestimate their area. As in satellite observations, three models show episodes of high OWP activity separated by decades of no OWP, while other models unrealistically create OWPs nearly every year. In contrast, the coastal polynya area is overestimated in most models, with the least accurate representations occurring in the models with the coarsest horizontal resolution. We show that the presence or absence of OWPs is linked to changes in the regional hydrography, specifically the linkages between polynya activity with deep water convection and/or the shoaling of the upper water column thermocline. Models with an accurate Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport and wind stress curl have too frequent OWPs. Biases in polynya representation continue to exist in climate models, which has an impact on the regional ocean circulation and ventilation that should be addressed. However, emerging iceberg discharge schemes, more adequate vertical grid type or overflow parameterisation are anticipated to improve polynya representations and associated climate prediction in the future.
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| 4. |
- Solomon, A., et al.
(författare)
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Freshwater in the Arctic Ocean 2010-2019
- 2021
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Ingår i: Ocean Science. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1812-0784 .- 1812-0792. ; 17:4, s. 1081-1102
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- U The Arctic climate system is rapidly transitioning into a new regime with a reduction in the extent of sea ice, enhanced mixing in the ocean and atmosphere, and thus enhanced coupling within the ocean-ice-atmosphere system; these physical changes are leading to ecosystem changes in the Arctic Ocean. In this review paper, we assess one of the critically important aspects of this new regime, the variability of Arctic freshwater, which plays a fundamental role in the Arctic climate system by impacting ocean stratification and sea ice formation or melt. Liquid and solid freshwater exports also affect the global climate system, notably by impacting the global ocean overturning circulation. We assess how freshwater budgets have changed relative to the 2000-2010 period. We include discussions of processes such as poleward atmospheric moisture transport, runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet and Arctic glaciers, the role of snow on sea ice, and vertical redistribution. Notably, sea ice cover has become more seasonal and more mobile; the mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet increased in the 2010s (particularly in the western, northern, and southern regions) and imported warm, salty Atlantic waters have shoaled. During 2000-2010, the Arctic Oscillation and moisture transport into the Arctic are in-phase and have a positive trend. This cyclonic atmospheric circulation pattern forces reduced freshwater content on the Atlantic-Eurasian side of the Arctic Ocean and freshwater gains in the Beaufort Gyre. We show that the trend in Arctic freshwater content in the 2010s has stabilized relative to the 2000s, potentially due to an increased compensation between a freshening of the Beaufort Gyre and a reduction in freshwater in the rest of the Arctic Ocean. However, large intermodel spread across the ocean reanalyses and uncertainty in the observations used in this study prevent a definitive conclusion about the degree of this compensation.
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