| 1. |
- Gössling, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
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Are emissions from global air transport significantly underestimated?
- 2024
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Ingår i: Current Issues in Tourism. - : Taylor & Francis Group. - 1368-3500 .- 1747-7603.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Air transport is energy-intense, and considerable attention has been paid to the sector's use of fuel and emissions of greenhouse gases. Commercial aviation is believed to currently emit about 1 Gt CO2 per year, if considering global bunker fuel use (scope 1 in the Greenhouse Gas Protocol). A growing database is becoming available on scope 1-3 emissions; this is, including up- and downstream emissions, and it is now possible to assess the aviation system's carbon intensity more comprehensively. This paper investigates the annual reports of 26 of the largest airlines in the world by market capitalisation, finding that reporting on emissions for scopes 1-3 is still inconsistent and characterised by reporting gaps. Yet, available data suggests that scope 3 emissions are significant (about 30% of scope 1 emissions). These findings have repercussions for the sector's net-zero ambitions, climate governance, consumer choices and air transport finance, as the overall contribution from air travel to climate change remains underestimated. Results suggest that it is in the sector's interest to present robust, transparent, consistent and accurate emission inventories - and to engage with the implications.
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| 2. |
- Gössling, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
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National tourism organizations and climate change
- 2024
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Ingår i: Tourism Geographies. - : Taylor & Francis Group. - 1461-6688 .- 1470-1340. ; 26:3, s. 329-350
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is a consensus that the global tourism system needs to undergo decarbonization and achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century. However, given the anticipated growth in the most energy-intensive subsector of tourism, air transport, achieving this goal seems unlikely. This paper focuses on the role of distance in the global geography of tourism, against evidence that National Marketing Organizations (NTOs) often seek to attract visitors from all over the world. The analysis of data for a sample of 12 NTOs in Europe, the USA and Canada reveals that the number of markets targeted varies between six and 33, with significant differences in the average distance to markets (<4,000 to 8,000 km), as well as emissions per arrival by market (0.2 t CO2 to 2.5 t CO2). For the countries studied, the 17% of the most distant arrivals cause 62% of the emissions. Results also show that more distant markets are more sensitive to disruptions such as COVID-19. These findings have relevance for destination marketing that point to new climate change related roles for NTOs such as rebranding, demarketing, market segmentation, and communication.
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| 3. |
- Gössling, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
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Net-zero aviation : Transition barriers and radical climate policy design implications
- 2024
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 912
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- While air transport decarbonization is theoretically feasible, less attention has been paid to the complexity incurred in various 'transition barriers' that act as roadblocks to net-zero goals. A total of 40 barriers related to mitigation, management, technology and fuel transition, finance, and governance are identified. As these make decarbonization uncertain, the paper analyzes air transport system's growth, revenue, and profitability. Over the period 1978-2022, global aviation has generated marginal profits of US$20200.94 per passenger, or US$202082 billion in total. Low profitability makes it unlikely that the sector can finance the fuel transition cost, at US $0.5-2.1 trillion (Dray et al. 2022). Four radical policy scenarios for air transport futures are developed. All are characterized by "limitations", such as CO2 taxes, a carbon budget, alternative fuel obligations, or available capacity. Scenario runs suggest that all policy scenarios will more reliably lead to net-zero than the continued volume growth model pursued by airlines.
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| 4. |
- Gössling, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
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On track to net-zero? Large tourism enterprises and climate change
- 2024
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Ingår i: Tourism Management. - : Elsevier. - 0261-5177 .- 1879-3193. ; 100, s. 104842-104842
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Much recent research on climate change mitigation has focused on carbon intensities, i.e. emissions per unit of economic value, to better understand interrelationships of decarbonization with value. This paper studies large tourism enterprises, which account for a large share of tourism's emissions. Based on annual reports, the paper evaluates greenhouse gas emission and revenue interrelationships for a total of n = 29 large tourism companies including airlines, cruise lines and accommodation businesses. Together, these companies represent about 13% (365 Mt CO2) of global tourism emissions, generating revenues of US$477 billion (in 2019). The paper tracks their total emissions and emission intensities over the period 2015–2019, revealing that large tourism firms are not on track to net-zero. Results show considerable differences in emission intensities between the three tourism subsectors and between individual firms within the subsectors. These findings are discussed against emission reduction needs to mid-century. There is strong evidence that continued growth at industry's expected rates represents an insurmountable barrier to net-zero, contradicting industry narratives of progressively and successfully engaging with climate change mitigation.
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