1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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2. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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3. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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4. |
- Feigin, Valery L., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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5. |
- Lakhan, Abdullah, et al.
(författare)
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Dynamic application partitioning and task-scheduling secure schemes for biosensor healthcare workload in mobile edge cloud
- 2021
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Ingår i: Electronics. - 2079-9292. ; 10:22, s. 1-30
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Currently, the use of biosensor-enabled mobile healthcare workflow applications in mobile edge-cloud-enabled systems is increasing progressively. These applications are heavyweight and divided between a thin client mobile device and a thick server edge cloud for execution. Application partitioning is a mechanism in which applications are divided based on resource and energy parameters. However, existing application-partitioning schemes widely ignore security aspects for healthcare applications. This study devises a dynamic application-partitioning workload task-scheduling-secure (DAPWTS) algorithm framework that consists of different schemes, such as min-cut algorithm, searching node, energy-enabled scheduling, failure scheduling, and security schemes. The goal is to minimize the energy consumption of nodes and divide the application between local nodes and edge nodes by applying the secure min-cut algorithm. Furthermore, the study devises the secure-min-cut algorithm, which aims to migrate data between nodes in a secure form during application partitioning in the system. After partitioning the applications, the node-search algorithm searches optimally to run applications under their deadlines. The energy and failure schemes maintain the energy consumption of the nodes and the failure of the system. Simulation results show that DAPWTS outperforms existing baseline approaches by 30% in terms of energy consumption, deadline, and failure of applications in the system.
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6. |
- Lakhan, Abdullah, et al.
(författare)
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Dynamic application partitioning and task-scheduling secure schemes for biosensor healthcare workload in mobile edge cloud
- 2021
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Ingår i: Electronics. - : MDPI AG. - 2079-9292. ; 10:22, s. 1-30
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Currently, the use of biosensor-enabled mobile healthcare workflow applications in mobile edge-cloud-enabled systems is increasing progressively. These applications are heavyweight and divided between a thin client mobile device and a thick server edge cloud for execution. Application partitioning is a mechanism in which applications are divided based on resource and energy parameters. However, existing application-partitioning schemes widely ignore security aspects for healthcare applications. This study devises a dynamic application-partitioning workload task-scheduling-secure (DAPWTS) algorithm framework that consists of different schemes, such as min-cut algorithm, searching node, energy-enabled scheduling, failure scheduling, and security schemes. The goal is to minimize the energy consumption of nodes and divide the application between local nodes and edge nodes by applying the secure min-cut algorithm. Furthermore, the study devises the secure-min-cut algorithm, which aims to migrate data between nodesin a secure form during application partitioning in the system. After partitioning the applications, the node-search algorithm searches optimally to run applications under their deadlines. The energy and failure schemes maintain the energy consumption of the nodes and the failure of the system. Simulation results show that DAPWTS outperforms existing baseline approaches by 30% in terms of energy consumption, deadline, and failure of applications in the system.
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7. |
- Akhlaq, Filza, et al.
(författare)
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Diving Deep into Bone Anomalies on the FracAtlas Dataset Using Deep Learning and Explainable AI
- 2024
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 2024 International Conference on Engineering & Computing Technologies (ICECT). ; , s. 1-6
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Medical image analysis has undergone significant advancements with the integration of machine learning techniques, particularly in the realm of bone anomaly detection. The availability of recent datasets and the lack of benchmarking and explainability components provide numerous opportunities in this domain. This study proposes a benchmarking approach to a recently published FracAtlas dataset utilizing state-of-the-art deep-learning models coupled with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) having two distinct modules. The first module involves the binary classification of fractures in different body parts and explains the decision-making process of the best-performing model using an XAI technique known as EigenCAM. EigenCAM generates heatmaps on every layer of the YOLOv8m model to explain how the model reached a conclusion and localizes the fracture using a heatmap. To verify the heatmap, we also detected fractures using the YOLOv8m detection model, which achieved a mAP@O.5 of 59.5%, outperforming the baseline results on this dataset. The second module involves a multi-class classification task to categorize images into one of the five anatomical regions. The best-performing model for binary classification is the YOLOv8m model, with an accuracy of 83.1%, whereas the best-performing model for multi-class classification is the YOLOv8s, achieving an accuracy of 96.2%.
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8. |
- Ali, Subhan, et al.
(författare)
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The enlightening role of explainable artificial intelligence in medical & healthcare domains : A systematic literature review
- 2023
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Ingår i: Computers in Biology and Medicine. - : Elsevier. - 0010-4825 .- 1879-0534. ; 166
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In domains such as medical and healthcare, the interpretability and explainability of machine learning and artificial intelligence systems are crucial for building trust in their results. Errors caused by these systems, such as incorrect diagnoses or treatments, can have severe and even life-threatening consequences for patients. To address this issue, Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) has emerged as a popular area of research, focused on understanding the black-box nature of complex and hard-to-interpret machine learning models. While humans can increase the accuracy of these models through technical expertise, understanding how these models actually function during training can be difficult or even impossible. XAI algorithms such as Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) can provide explanations for these models, improving trust in their predictions by providing feature importance and increasing confidence in the systems. Many articles have been published that propose solutions to medical problems by using machine learning models alongside XAI algorithms to provide interpretability and explainability. In our study, we identified 454 articles published from 2018- 2022 and analyzed 93 of them to explore the use of these techniques in the medical domain.
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9. |
- Ali, Subhan, et al.
(författare)
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Visualizing Research on Explainable Artificial Intelligence for Medical and Healthcare
- 2023
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Ingår i: 2023 4th International Conference on Computing, Mathematics and Engineering Technologies (iCoMET). - : IEEE. - 9798350335323 - 9798350335316 ; , s. 1-6
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding complex machine learning and artificial intelligence models have always been challenging because these models are black-box, and often we don't know what information models rely upon to infer. Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) has emerged as a new exciting field to explain and understand these machine learning models as humans can understand and improve them. In the past few years, there have been numerous research articles on explainable artificial intelligence for medical and healthcare. 1687 documents are being studied and analysed using bibliometric methods in this work. There are certain systematic reviews on the same topic, but this study is the first of its kind to use a quantitative method to analyze a large number of publications. The results of this study show that the research in this field took place in 2011, and there have been quite many publications in the following years. We have also identified top-cited journals and articles. Through thematic analysis, we have found some important thematic areas of research in the field of XAI for medical and healthcare. The findings showed that the USA is the global leader in XAI research, followed by China and Canada at second and third place, respectively.
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10. |
- Ahmed, Ammar, et al.
(författare)
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Enhancing wrist abnormality detection with YOLO : Analysis of state-of-the-art single-stage detection models
- 2024
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Ingår i: Biomedical Signal Processing and Control. - : Elsevier. - 1746-8094 .- 1746-8108. ; 93
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Diagnosing and treating abnormalities in the wrist, specifically distal radius, and ulna fractures, is a crucial concern among children, adolescents, and young adults, with a higher incidence rate during puberty. However, the scarcity of radiologists and the lack of specialized training among medical professionals pose a significant risk to patient care. This problem is further exacerbated by the rising number of imaging studies and limited access to specialist reporting in certain regions. This highlights the need for innovative solutions to improve the diagnosis and treatment of wrist abnormalities. Automated wrist fracture detection using object detection has shown potential, but current studies mainly use two-stage detection methods with limited evidence for single-stage effectiveness. This study employs state-of-the-art single-stage deep neural network-based detection models YOLOv5, YOLOv6, YOLOv7, and YOLOv8 to detect wrist abnormalities. Through extensive experimentation, we found that these YOLO models outperform the commonly used two-stage detection algorithm, Faster R-CNN, in fracture detection. Additionally, compound-scaled variants of each YOLO model were compared, with YOLOv8 m demonstrating a highest fracture detection sensitivity of 0.92 and mean average precision (mAP) of 0.95. On the other hand, YOLOv6 m achieved the highest sensitivity across all classes at 0.83. Meanwhile, YOLOv8x recorded the highest mAP of 0.77 for all classes on the GRAZPEDWRI-DX pediatric wrist dataset, highlighting the potential of single-stage models for enhancing pediatric wrist imaging.
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