| 1. |
- Brauers, Hanna, et al.
(författare)
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Liquefied natural gas expansion plans in Germany: The risk of gas lock-in under energy transitions
- 2021
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Ingår i: Energy Research and Social Science. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-6296. ; 76
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The German energy transition has been hailed as a role model for climate action. However, plans for the construction of three large-scale Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) import terminals are receiving strong state support. This is inconsistent with Germany's climate targets, which require a reduction rather than expansion of natural gas consumption. In our paper, we aim to unpack the connection between the risk of natural gas lock-in and the energy transition. We analyse the co-evolution of the techno-economic, socio-technical and political realms of the German natural gas sector and influence of actors within that process. We use a combination of energy system and interview data, and introduce a new approach to triangulate material and actor analysis. We show that four natural gas lock-in mechanisms cause the support for LNG in Germany: (A) the geopolitical influence from the United States, combined with (B) security of supply concerns due to the planned coal and nuclear phase-out, (C) pressure from a wide variety of state and private sector actors, and (D) sunk investments in existing gas infrastructure. Two additional mechanisms supporting the strong position of natural gas are (E) the strength of the emerging synthetic gas niche, and (F) weak opposition against LNG and natural gas. We highlight the severely overlooked lock-in potential and related emissions, which could complicate and decelerate energy transitions as more countries reach a more advanced phase of the energy transition.
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| 2. |
- Brutschin, Elina, et al.
(författare)
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Failing the formative phase: The global diffusion of nuclear power is limited by national markets
- 2021
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Ingår i: Energy Research and Social Science. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-6296. ; 80
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding the role of technology characteristics and the context in the diffusion of new energy technologies is important for assessing feasibility of climate mitigation. We examine the historical adoption of nuclear power as a case of a complex large scale energy technology. We conduct an event history analysis of grid connections of first sizable commercial nuclear power reactors in 79 countries between 1950 and 2018. We show that the introduction of nuclear power can largely be explained by contextual variables such as the proximity of a country to a major technology supplier (‘ease of diffusion’), the size of the economy, electricity demand growth, and energy import dependence (‘market attractiveness’). The lack of nuclear newcomers in the early 1990s can be explained by the lack of countries with high growth in electricity demand and sufficient capacities to build their first nuclear power plant, either on their own or with international help. We also find that nuclear accidents, the pursuit of nuclear weapons, and the advances made in competing technologies played only a minor role in nuclear technology failing to be established in more countries. Our analysis improves understanding of the feasibility of introducing contested and expensive technologies in a heterogenous world with motivations and capacities that differ across countries and by a patchwork of international relations. While countries with high state capacity or support from a major technology supplier are capable of introducing large-scale technologies quickly, technology diffusion to other regions might undergo significant delays due to lower motivations and capacities.
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| 3. |
- Cherp, Aleh, et al.
(författare)
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National growth dynamics of wind and solar power compared to the growth required for global climate targets
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Energy. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2058-7546. ; 6:7, s. 742-754
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate mitigation scenarios envision considerable growth of wind and solar power, but scholars disagree on how this growth compares with historical trends. Here we fit growth models to wind and solar trajectories to identify countries in which growth has already stabilized after the initial acceleration. National growth has followed S-curves to reach maximum annual rates of 0.8% (interquartile range of 0.6–1.1%) of the total electricity supply for onshore wind and 0.6% (0.4–0.9%) for solar. In comparison, one-half of 1.5 °C-compatible scenarios envision global growth of wind power above 1.3% and of solar power above 1.4%, while one-quarter of these scenarios envision global growth of solar above 3.3% per year. Replicating or exceeding the fastest national growth globally may be challenging because, so far, countries that introduced wind and solar power later have not achieved higher maximum growth rates, despite their generally speedier progression through the technology adoption cycle.
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| 4. |
- Pai, Sandeep, et al.
(författare)
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Meeting well-below 2°C target would increase energy sector jobs globally
- 2021
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Ingår i: One Earth. - : Elsevier BV. - 2590-3322 .- 2590-3330. ; 4:7, s. 1026-1036
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To limit global warming to well-below 2°C (WB2C), fossil fuels must be replaced by low-carbon energy sources. Support for this transition is often dampened by the impact on fossil fuel jobs. Previous work shows that pro-climate polices could increase employment by 20 million net energy jobs, but these studies rely on Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) jobs data, assumptions about jobs in non-OECD countries, and a single baseline assumption. Here we combine a global dataset of job intensities across 11 energy technologies and five job categories in 50 countries with an integrated assessment model under three shared socioeconomic pathways. We estimate direct energy jobs under a WB2C scenario and current policy scenarios. We find that, by 2050, energy sector jobs would grow from today's 18 million to 26 million under a WB2C scenario compared with 21 million under the current policy scenario. Fossil fuel extraction jobs would rapidly decline, but losses will be compensated by gains in solar and wind jobs, particularly in the manufacturing sector (totaling 7.7 million in 2050).
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| 5. |
- Vinichenko, Vadim, 1967, et al.
(författare)
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Historical precedents and feasibility of rapid coal and gas decline required for the 1.5°C target
- 2021
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Ingår i: One Earth. - : Elsevier BV. - 2590-3322 .- 2590-3330. ; 4:10, s. 1477-1490
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To limit global warming to 1.5°C, fossil fuel use must rapidly decline, but historical precedents for such large-scale transitions are lacking. Here we identify 147 historical episodes and policy pledges of fossil fuel decline in 105 countries and global regions between 1960 and 2018. We analyze 43 cases in larger systems most relevant to climate scenarios. One-half of 1.5°C-compatible scenarios envision coal decline in Asia faster than in any of these cases. The remaining scenarios as well as many scenarios for coal and gas decline in other regions have precedents only where oil was replaced by coal, gas, or nuclear power in response to energy security threats. Achieving the 1.5°C target will be difficult in the absence of fossil fuel decline mechanisms that extend far beyond historical experience or current pledges.
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