Analyses of a 238-year long monthly precipitation time sequence by use of filtering techniques

• This study aims at investigating the occurrence and characteristics of drought patterns by analyzing a 238-year long monthly precipitation time sequence observed at Lund in Sweden using an ordinary Kalman filter (OKF) and an adaptive Kalman filter (AKF). The OKF identifies the periods (in the time sequence) with anomalous precipitation by comparing the observed and average precipitation patterns. The AKF detects the changes of the long-term precipitation patterns in the time sequence. These changes are associated with the abrupt changes in the parameters of a periodic-stochastic model. The time sequence is divided into several precipitation epochs, where an epoch is uniquely represented by one set of parameter values. The precipitation pattern in each epoch reveals whether the risk of drought occurrence is high or not in an epoch. -Authors

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (hsv//eng)

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