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| 2. |
- Toreti, A, et al.
(författare)
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Narrowing uncertainties in the effects of elevated CO2 on crops
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature Food. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2662-1355. ; 1, s. 775-782
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Plant responses to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, together with projected variations in temperature and precipitation will determine future agricultural production. Estimates of the impacts of climate change on agriculture provide essential information to design effective adaptation strategies, and develop sustainable food systems. Here, we review the current experimental evidence and crop models on the effects of elevated CO2 concentrations. Recent concerted efforts have narrowed the uncertainties in CO2-induced crop responses so that climate change impact simulations omitting CO2 can now be eliminated. To address remaining knowledge gaps and uncertainties in estimating the effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on crops, future research should expand experiments on more crop species under a wider range of growing conditions, improve the representation of responses to climate extremes in crop models, and simulate additional crop physiological processes related to nutritional quality.
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| 3. |
- Li, Y., et al.
(författare)
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Widespread spring phenology effects on drought recovery of Northern Hemisphere ecosystems
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 13, s. 182-188
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The authors reveal complex drought recovery responses to phenology shifts, in that early spring can shorten or lengthen recovery, while delayed spring following drought events delays it. These effects suggest a need to incorporate phenology aspects into resilience models. The time required for an ecosystem to recover from severe drought is a key component of ecological resilience. The phenology effects on drought recovery are, however, poorly understood. These effects centre on how phenology variations impact biophysical feedbacks, vegetation growth and, ultimately, recovery itself. Using multiple remotely sensed datasets, we found that more than half of ecosystems in mid- and high-latitudinal Northern Hemisphere failed to recover from extreme droughts within a single growing season. Earlier spring phenology in the drought year slowed drought recovery when extreme droughts occurred in mid-growing season. Delayed spring phenology in the subsequent year slowed drought recovery for all vegetation types (with importance of spring phenology ranging from 46% to 58%). The phenology effects on drought recovery were comparable to or larger than other well-known postdrought climatic factors. These results strongly suggest that the interactions between vegetation phenology and drought must be incorporated into Earth system models to accurately quantify ecosystem resilience.
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| 4. |
- Madani, Nima, et al.
(författare)
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Below-surface water mediates the response of African forests to reduced rainfall
- 2020
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 15:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Terrestrial ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP) is the largest land-atmosphere carbon flux and the primary mechanism of photosynthetic fixation of atmospheric CO2 into plant biomass. Anomalous rainfall events have been shown to have a great impact on the global carbon cycle. However, less is known about the impact of these events on GPP, especially in Africa, where in situ observations are sparse. Here, we use a suite of satellite and other geospatial data to examine the responses of major ecosystems in Africa to anomalous rainfall events from 2003 to 2017. Our results reveal that higher-than-average groundwater storage in tropical ecosystems offsets the rainfall deficit during the dry years. While the inter-annual variations in GPP in semi-arid ecosystems are controlled by near surface soil water, deeper soil moisture and groundwater control the inter-annual variability of the GPP in dense tropical forests. Our study highlights the critical role of groundwater in buffering rainfall shortages and continued availability of near-surface water to plants through dry spells.
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| 5. |
- Ronchi, E., et al.
(författare)
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The verification of wildland–urban interface fire evacuation models
- 2023
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Ingår i: Natural Hazards. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0921-030X .- 1573-0840. ; 117:2, s. 1493-1519
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper introduces a protocol for the verification of multi-physics wildfire evacuation models, including a set of tests used to ensure that the conceptual modelling representation of each modelling layer is accurately implemented, as well as the interactions between different modelling layers and sub-models (wildfire spread, pedestrian movement, traffic evacuation, and trigger buffers). This work presents a total of 24 verification tests, including (1) 4 tests related to pedestrians, (2) 15 tests for traffic evacuation, (3) 5 tests concerning the interaction between different modelling layers, along with 5 tests for wildfire spread and trigger buffers. The evacuation tests are organized in accordance with different core components related to evacuation modelling, namely Population, Pre-evacuation, Movement, Route/destination selection, Flow constraints, Events, Wildfire spread and Trigger buffers. A reporting template has also been developed to facilitate the application of the verification testing protocol. An example application of the testing protocol has been performed using an open wildfire evacuation modelling platform called WUI-NITY and its associated trigger buffer model k-PERIL. The verification testing protocol is deemed to improve the credibility of wildfire evacuation model results and stimulate future modelling efforts in this domain.
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| 6. |
- Zona, Donatella, et al.
(författare)
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Earlier snowmelt may lead to late season declines in plant productivity and carbon sequestration in Arctic tundra ecosystems
- 2022
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 12:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Arctic warming is affecting snow cover and soil hydrology, with consequences for carbon sequestration in tundra ecosystems. The scarcity of observations in the Arctic has limited our understanding of the impact of covarying environmental drivers on the carbon balance of tundra ecosystems. In this study, we address some of these uncertainties through a novel record of 119 site-years of summer data from eddy covariance towers representing dominant tundra vegetation types located on continuous permafrost in the Arctic. Here we found that earlier snowmelt was associated with more tundra net CO2 sequestration and higher gross primary productivity (GPP) only in June and July, but with lower net carbon sequestration and lower GPP in August. Although higher evapotranspiration (ET) can result in soil drying with the progression of the summer, we did not find significantly lower soil moisture with earlier snowmelt, nor evidence that water stress affected GPP in the late growing season. Our results suggest that the expected increased CO2 sequestration arising from Arctic warming and the associated increase in growing season length may not materialize if tundra ecosystems are not able to continue sequestering CO2 later in the season.
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| 7. |
- Centers, Gary P., et al.
(författare)
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Stochastic fluctuations of bosonic dark matter
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 12:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Numerous theories extending beyond the standard model of particle physics predict the existence of bosons that could constitute dark matter. In the standard halo model of galactic dark matter, the velocity distribution of the bosonic dark matter field defines a characteristic coherence time τc. Until recently, laboratory experiments searching for bosonic dark matter fields have been in the regime where the measurement time T significantly exceeds τc, so null results have been interpreted by assuming a bosonic field amplitude Φ0 fixed by the average local dark matter density. Here we show that experiments operating in the T ≪ τc regime do not sample the full distribution of bosonic dark matter field amplitudes and therefore it is incorrect to assume a fixed value of Φ0 when inferring constraints. Instead, in order to interpret laboratory measurements (even in the event of a discovery), it is necessary to account for the stochastic nature of such a virialized ultralight field. The constraints inferred from several previous null experiments searching for ultralight bosonic dark matter were overestimated by factors ranging from 3 to 10 depending on experimental details, model assumptions, and choice of inference framework.
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| 8. |
- Gordon, Amy R., et al.
(författare)
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Human scent as a first-line defense against disease
- 2023
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Nature. - 2045-2322. ; 13:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Individuals may have a different body odor, when they are sick compared to healthy. In the non-human animal literature, olfactory cues have been shown to predict avoidance of sick individuals. We tested whether the mere experimental activation of the innate immune system in healthy human individuals can make an individuals' body odor be perceived as more aversive (intense, unpleasant, and disgusting). Following an endotoxin injection (lipopolysaccharide; 0.6 ng/kg) that creates a transient systemic inflammation, individuals smelled more unpleasant compared to a placebo group (saline injection). Behavioral and chemical analyses of the body odor samples suggest that the volatile components of samples from sick individuals changed qualitatively rather than quantitatively. Our findings support the hypothesis that odor cues of inflammation in axillary sweat are detectable just a few hours after experimental activation of the innate immune system. As such, they may trigger behavioral avoidance, hence constituting a first line of defense against pathogens of infected conspecifics.
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| 9. |
- Kuligowski, E., et al.
(författare)
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Evacuation modelling for bushfire : the WUI-NITY simulation platform
- 2022
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Ingår i: Australian Journal of Emergency Management. - 1324-1540. ; 37:4, s. 40-43
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The number of people who live in bushfire-prone areas around the world is growing. In Australia, in the states of Victoria and New South Wales, over 1.5 million people live in areas rated as high to extreme bushfire risk in (SGS Economics and Planning 2019). As effects of climate change increase the size and severity of bushfires, and a greater number of people move into these at-risk areas, there is a growing imperative to understand the likely evacuation outcomes of bushfireprone communities under various fire scenarios. This paper introduces a freely available simulation platform called WUI-NITY that can be used by evacuation planners and decisionmakers to forecast evacuation behaviour within affected areas, and in turn, better prepare for and respond to future bushfire events.
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| 10. |
- Li, Yang, et al.
(författare)
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Origin of anomalously stabilizing ice layers on methane gas hydrates near rock surface
- 2023
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Ingår i: Physical Chemistry, Chemical Physics - PCCP. - : Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC). - 1463-9076 .- 1463-9084. ; 25:9, s. 6636-6652
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Gas hydrates (GHs) in water close to freezing temperatures can be stabilised via the formation of ice layers. In a recent work [Bostrom et al., Astron. Astrophys., A54, 650, 2021], it was found that a surface region with partial gas dilution could be essential for obtaining nano- to micron-sized anomalously stabilizing ice layers. In this paper, it is demonstrated that the Casimir-Lifshitz free energy in multi-layer systems could induce thinner, but more stable, ice layers in cavities than those found for gas hydrates in a large reservoir of cold water. The thickness and stability of such ice layers in a pore filled with cold water could influence the leakage of gas molecules. Additional contributions, e.g. from salt-induced stresses, can also be of importance, and are briefly discussed.
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