| 1. |
- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 2. |
- Lumbers, R. T., et al.
(författare)
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The genomics of heart failure: design and rationale of the HERMES consortium
- 2021
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Ingår i: Esc Heart Failure. - : Wiley. - 2055-5822. ; 8:6, s. 5531-5541
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims The HERMES (HEart failure Molecular Epidemiology for Therapeutic targets) consortium aims to identify the genomic and molecular basis of heart failure. Methods and results The consortium currently includes 51 studies from 11 countries, including 68 157 heart failure cases and 949 888 controls, with data on heart failure events and prognosis. All studies collected biological samples and performed genome-wide genotyping of common genetic variants. The enrolment of subjects into participating studies ranged from 1948 to the present day, and the median follow-up following heart failure diagnosis ranged from 2 to 116 months. Forty-nine of 51 individual studies enrolled participants of both sexes; in these studies, participants with heart failure were predominantly male (34-90%). The mean age at diagnosis or ascertainment across all studies ranged from 54 to 84 years. Based on the aggregate sample, we estimated 80% power to genetic variant associations with risk of heart failure with an odds ratio of >1.10 for common variants (allele frequency > 0.05) and >1.20 for low-frequency variants (allele frequency 0.01-0.05) at P < 5 x 10(-8) under an additive genetic model. Conclusions HERMES is a global collaboration aiming to (i) identify the genetic determinants of heart failure; (ii) generate insights into the causal pathways leading to heart failure and enable genetic approaches to target prioritization; and (iii) develop genomic tools for disease stratification and risk prediction.
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| 3. |
- Zhang, X., et al.
(författare)
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Human total, basal and activity energy expenditures are independent of ambient environmental temperature
- 2022
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Ingår i: iScience. - : Elsevier Inc.. - 2589-0042. ; 25:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lower ambient temperature (Ta) requires greater energy expenditure to sustain body temperature. However, effects of Ta on human energetics may be buffered by environmental modification and behavioral compensation. We used the IAEA DLW database for adults in the USA (n = 3213) to determine the effect of Ta (−10 to +30°C) on TEE, basal (BEE) and activity energy expenditure (AEE) and physical activity level (PAL). There were no significant relationships (p > 0.05) between maximum, minimum and average Ta and TEE, BEE, AEE and PAL. After adjustment for fat-free mass, fat mass and age, statistically significant (p < 0.01) relationships between TEE, BEE and Ta emerged in females but the effect sizes were not biologically meaningful. Temperatures inside buildings are regulated at 18–25°C independent of latitude. Hence, adults in the US modify their environments to keep TEE constant across a wide range of external ambient temperatures.
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| 4. |
- Abdalla, H., et al.
(författare)
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Resolving the Crab pulsar wind nebula at teraelectronvolt energies
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature Astronomy. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 2397-3366. ; 4:2, s. 167-173
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An angular extension at gamma-ray energies of 52 arcseconds is detected for the Crab nebula, revealing the emission region of the highest-energy gamma rays; simulations of the electromagnetic emission provide a non-trivial test of our understanding of particle acceleration in the Crab nebula. The Crab nebula is one of the most-studied cosmic particle accelerators, shining brightly across the entire electromagnetic spectrum up to very-high-energy gamma rays(1,2). It is known from observations in the radio to gamma-ray part of the spectrum that the nebula is powered by a pulsar, which converts most of its rotational energy losses into a highly relativistic outflow. This outflow powers a pulsar wind nebula, a region of up to ten light-years across, filled with relativistic electrons and positrons. These particles emit synchrotron photons in the ambient magnetic field and produce very-high-energy gamma rays by Compton up-scattering of ambient low-energy photons. Although the synchrotron morphology of the nebula is well established, it has not been known from which region the very-high-energy gamma rays are emitted(3-8). Here we report that the Crab nebula has an angular extension at gamma-ray energies of 52 arcseconds (assuming a Gaussian source width), much larger than at X-ray energies. This result closes a gap in the multi-wavelength coverage of the nebula, revealing the emission region of the highest-energy gamma rays. These gamma rays enable us to probe a previously inaccessible electron and positron energy range. We find that simulations of the electromagnetic emission reproduce our measurement, providing a non-trivial test of our understanding of particle acceleration in the Crab nebula.
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| 5. |
- Abdalla, H., et al.
(författare)
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HESS detection of very high-energy gamma-ray emission from the quasar PKS 0736+017
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 633, s. 1-11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. Flat-spectrum radio-quasars (FSRQs) are rarely detected at very high energies (E& x2004;>=& x2004;100 GeV) due to their low-frequency-peaked spectral energy distributions. At present, only six FSRQs are known to emit very high-energy (VHE) photons, representing only 7% of the VHE extragalactic catalog, which is largely dominated by high-frequency-peaked BL Lacertae objects. Aims. Following the detection of MeV-GeV gamma-ray flaring activity from the FSRQ PKS 0736+017 (z& x2004;=& x2004;0.189) with Fermi-LAT, the H.E.S.S. array of Cherenkov telescopes triggered target-of-opportunity (ToO) observations on February 18, 2015, with the goal of studying the gamma-ray emission in the VHE band. Methods. H.E.S.S. ToO observations were carried out during the nights of February 18, 19, 21, and 24, 2015. Together with Fermi-LAT, the multi-wavelength coverage of the flare includes Swift observations in soft X-ray and optical-UV bands, and optical monitoring (photometry and spectro-polarimetry) by the Steward Observatory, and the ATOM, the KAIT, and the ASAS-SN telescopes. Results. VHE emission from PKS 0736+017 was detected with H.E.S.S. only during the night of February 19, 2015. Fermi-LAT data indicate the presence of a gamma-ray flare, peaking at the time of the H.E.S.S. detection, with a flux doubling timescale of around six hours. The gamma-ray flare was accompanied by at least a 1 mag brightening of the non-thermal optical continuum. No simultaneous observations at longer wavelengths are available for the night of the H.E.S.S. detection. The gamma-ray observations with H.E.S.S. and Fermi-LAT are used to put constraints on the location of the gamma-ray emitting region during the flare: it is constrained to be just outside the radius of the broad-line region r(BLR) with a bulk Lorentz factor Gamma& x2004;similar or equal to& x2004;20, or at the level of the radius of the dusty torus r(torus) with Gamma& x2004;similar or equal to& x2004;60. Conclusions. PKS 0736+017 is the seventh FSRQ known to emit VHE photons, and at z& x2004;=& x2004;0.189 is the nearest so far. The location of the gamma-ray emitting region during the flare can be tightly constrained thanks to opacity, variability, and collimation arguments.
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| 6. |
- Abdalla, H., et al.
(författare)
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Resolving acceleration to very high energies along the jet of Centaurus A
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 582:7812, s. 356-359
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The nearby radio galaxy Centaurus A belongs to a class of active galaxies that are luminous at radio wavelengths. Most show collimated relativistic outflows known as jets, which extend over hundreds of thousands of parsecs for the most powerful sources. Accretion of matter onto the central supermassive black hole is believed to fuel these jets and power their emission(1). Synchrotron radiation from relativistic electrons causes the radio emission, and it has been suggested that the X-ray emission from Centaurus A also originates in electron synchrotron processes(2-4). Another possible explanation is inverse Compton scattering with cosmic microwave background (CMB) soft photons(5-7). Synchrotron radiation needs ultrarelativistic electrons (about 50 teraelectronvolts) and, given their short cooling times, requires some continuous re-acceleration mechanism(8). Inverse Compton scattering, on the other hand, does not require very energetic electrons, but the jets must stay highly relativistic on large scales (exceeding 1 megaparsec). Some recent evidence disfavours inverse Compton-CMB models(9-12), although other work seems to be compatible with them(13,14). In principle, the detection of extended gamma-ray emission, which directly probes the presence of ultrarelativistic electrons, could distinguish between these options. At gigaelectronvolt energies there is also an unusual spectral hardening(15,16)in Centaurus A that has not yet been explained. Here we report observations of Centaurus A at teraelectronvolt energies that resolve its large-scale jet. We interpret the data as evidence for the acceleration of ultrarelativistic electrons in the jet, and favour the synchrotron explanation for the X-rays. Given that this jet is not exceptional in terms of power, length or speed, it is possible that ultrarelativistic electrons are commonplace in the large-scale jets of radio-loud active galaxies. Observations of the radio galaxy Centaurus A at teraelectronvolt energies resolve its large-scale jet and favour electron synchrotron processes as the source of its X-ray emission.
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| 7. |
- Ebersole, Charles R., et al.
(författare)
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Many Labs 5: Testing Pre-Data-Collection Peer Review as an Intervention to Increase Replicability
- 2020
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Ingår i: Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science. - : Sage. - 2515-2467 .- 2515-2459. ; 3:3, s. 309-331
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Replication studies in psychological science sometimes fail to reproduce prior findings. If these studies use methods that are unfaithful to the original study or ineffective in eliciting the phenomenon of interest, then a failure to replicate may be a failure of the protocol rather than a challenge to the original finding. Formal pre-data-collection peer review by experts may address shortcomings and increase replicability rates. We selected 10 replication studies from the Reproducibility Project: Psychology (RP:P; Open Science Collaboration, 2015) for which the original authors had expressed concerns about the replication designs before data collection; only one of these studies had yielded a statistically significant effect (p < .05). Commenters suggested that lack of adherence to expert review and low-powered tests were the reasons that most of these RP:P studies failed to replicate the original effects. We revised the replication protocols and received formal peer review prior to conducting new replication studies. We administered the RP:P and revised protocols in multiple laboratories (median number of laboratories per original study = 6.5, range = 3-9; median total sample = 1,279.5, range = 276-3,512) for high-powered tests of each original finding with both protocols. Overall, following the preregistered analysis plan, we found that the revised protocols produced effect sizes similar to those of the RP:P protocols (Delta r = .002 or .014, depending on analytic approach). The median effect size for the revised protocols (r = .05) was similar to that of the RP:P protocols (r = .04) and the original RP:P replications (r = .11), and smaller than that of the original studies (r = .37). Analysis of the cumulative evidence across the original studies and the corresponding three replication attempts provided very precise estimates of the 10 tested effects and indicated that their effect sizes (median r = .07, range = .00-.15) were 78% smaller, on average, than the original effect sizes (median r = .37, range = .19-.50).
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| 8. |
- Nechaeva, T., et al.
(författare)
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Hosing of a Long Relativistic Particle Bunch in Plasma
- 2024
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Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - : American Physical Society. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 132:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Experimental results show that hosing of a long particle bunch in plasma can be induced by wakefields driven by a short, misaligned preceding bunch. Hosing develops in the plane of misalignment, selfmodulation in the perpendicular plane, at frequencies close to the plasma electron frequency, and are reproducible. Development of hosing depends on misalignment direction, its growth on misalignment extent and on proton bunch charge. Results have the main characteristics of a theoretical model, are relevant to other plasma -based accelerators and represent the first characterization of hosing.
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| 9. |
- Speakman, John R., et al.
(författare)
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Total daily energy expenditure has declined over the past three decades due to declining basal expenditure, not reduced activity expenditure
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Metabolism. - : NATURE PORTFOLIO. - 2522-5812. ; 5:4, s. 579-588
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Obesity is caused by a prolonged positive energy balance(1,2). Whether reduced energy expenditure stemming from reduced activity levels contributes is debated(3,4). Here we show that in both sexes, total energy expenditure (TEE) adjusted for body composition and age declined since the late 1980s, while adjusted activity energy expenditure increased over time. We use the International Atomic Energy Agency Doubly Labelled Water database on energy expenditure of adults in the United States and Europe (n = 4,799) to explore patterns in total (TEE: n = 4,799), basal (BEE: n = 1,432) and physical activity energy expenditure (n = 1,432) over time. In males, adjusted BEE decreased significantly, but in females this did not reach significance. A larger dataset of basal metabolic rate (equivalent to BEE) measurements of 9,912 adults across 163 studies spanning 100 years replicates the decline in BEE in both sexes. We conclude that increasing obesity in the United States/Europe has probably not been fuelled by reduced physical activity leading to lowered TEE. We identify here a decline in adjusted BEE as a previously unrecognized factor.
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| 10. |
- Verra, L., et al.
(författare)
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Development of the self-modulation instability of a relativistic proton bunch in plasma
- 2023
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Ingår i: Physics of Plasmas. - : American Institute of Physics (AIP). - 1070-664X .- 1089-7674. ; 30:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Self-modulation is a beam-plasma instability that is useful to drive large-amplitude wakefields with bunches much longer than the plasma skin depth. We present experimental results showing that, when increasing the ratio between the initial transverse size of the bunch and the plasma skin depth, the instability occurs later along the bunch, or not at all, over a fixed plasma length because the amplitude of the initial wakefields decreases. We show cases for which self-modulation does not develop, and we introduce a simple model discussing the conditions for which it would not occur after any plasma length. Changing bunch size and plasma electron density also changes the growth rate of the instability. We discuss the impact of these results on the design of a particle accelerator based on the self-modulation instability seeded by a relativistic ionization front, such as the future upgrade of the Advanced WAKefield Experiment.
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