| 1. |
- Lumbers, R. T., et al.
(författare)
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The genomics of heart failure: design and rationale of the HERMES consortium
- 2021
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Ingår i: Esc Heart Failure. - : Wiley. - 2055-5822. ; 8:6, s. 5531-5541
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims The HERMES (HEart failure Molecular Epidemiology for Therapeutic targets) consortium aims to identify the genomic and molecular basis of heart failure. Methods and results The consortium currently includes 51 studies from 11 countries, including 68 157 heart failure cases and 949 888 controls, with data on heart failure events and prognosis. All studies collected biological samples and performed genome-wide genotyping of common genetic variants. The enrolment of subjects into participating studies ranged from 1948 to the present day, and the median follow-up following heart failure diagnosis ranged from 2 to 116 months. Forty-nine of 51 individual studies enrolled participants of both sexes; in these studies, participants with heart failure were predominantly male (34-90%). The mean age at diagnosis or ascertainment across all studies ranged from 54 to 84 years. Based on the aggregate sample, we estimated 80% power to genetic variant associations with risk of heart failure with an odds ratio of >1.10 for common variants (allele frequency > 0.05) and >1.20 for low-frequency variants (allele frequency 0.01-0.05) at P < 5 x 10(-8) under an additive genetic model. Conclusions HERMES is a global collaboration aiming to (i) identify the genetic determinants of heart failure; (ii) generate insights into the causal pathways leading to heart failure and enable genetic approaches to target prioritization; and (iii) develop genomic tools for disease stratification and risk prediction.
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| 2. |
- Abdalla, H., et al.
(författare)
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HESS detection of very high-energy gamma-ray emission from the quasar PKS 0736+017
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 633, s. 1-11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. Flat-spectrum radio-quasars (FSRQs) are rarely detected at very high energies (E& x2004;>=& x2004;100 GeV) due to their low-frequency-peaked spectral energy distributions. At present, only six FSRQs are known to emit very high-energy (VHE) photons, representing only 7% of the VHE extragalactic catalog, which is largely dominated by high-frequency-peaked BL Lacertae objects. Aims. Following the detection of MeV-GeV gamma-ray flaring activity from the FSRQ PKS 0736+017 (z& x2004;=& x2004;0.189) with Fermi-LAT, the H.E.S.S. array of Cherenkov telescopes triggered target-of-opportunity (ToO) observations on February 18, 2015, with the goal of studying the gamma-ray emission in the VHE band. Methods. H.E.S.S. ToO observations were carried out during the nights of February 18, 19, 21, and 24, 2015. Together with Fermi-LAT, the multi-wavelength coverage of the flare includes Swift observations in soft X-ray and optical-UV bands, and optical monitoring (photometry and spectro-polarimetry) by the Steward Observatory, and the ATOM, the KAIT, and the ASAS-SN telescopes. Results. VHE emission from PKS 0736+017 was detected with H.E.S.S. only during the night of February 19, 2015. Fermi-LAT data indicate the presence of a gamma-ray flare, peaking at the time of the H.E.S.S. detection, with a flux doubling timescale of around six hours. The gamma-ray flare was accompanied by at least a 1 mag brightening of the non-thermal optical continuum. No simultaneous observations at longer wavelengths are available for the night of the H.E.S.S. detection. The gamma-ray observations with H.E.S.S. and Fermi-LAT are used to put constraints on the location of the gamma-ray emitting region during the flare: it is constrained to be just outside the radius of the broad-line region r(BLR) with a bulk Lorentz factor Gamma& x2004;similar or equal to& x2004;20, or at the level of the radius of the dusty torus r(torus) with Gamma& x2004;similar or equal to& x2004;60. Conclusions. PKS 0736+017 is the seventh FSRQ known to emit VHE photons, and at z& x2004;=& x2004;0.189 is the nearest so far. The location of the gamma-ray emitting region during the flare can be tightly constrained thanks to opacity, variability, and collimation arguments.
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| 3. |
- Abdalla, H., et al.
(författare)
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Resolving acceleration to very high energies along the jet of Centaurus A
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 582:7812, s. 356-359
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The nearby radio galaxy Centaurus A belongs to a class of active galaxies that are luminous at radio wavelengths. Most show collimated relativistic outflows known as jets, which extend over hundreds of thousands of parsecs for the most powerful sources. Accretion of matter onto the central supermassive black hole is believed to fuel these jets and power their emission(1). Synchrotron radiation from relativistic electrons causes the radio emission, and it has been suggested that the X-ray emission from Centaurus A also originates in electron synchrotron processes(2-4). Another possible explanation is inverse Compton scattering with cosmic microwave background (CMB) soft photons(5-7). Synchrotron radiation needs ultrarelativistic electrons (about 50 teraelectronvolts) and, given their short cooling times, requires some continuous re-acceleration mechanism(8). Inverse Compton scattering, on the other hand, does not require very energetic electrons, but the jets must stay highly relativistic on large scales (exceeding 1 megaparsec). Some recent evidence disfavours inverse Compton-CMB models(9-12), although other work seems to be compatible with them(13,14). In principle, the detection of extended gamma-ray emission, which directly probes the presence of ultrarelativistic electrons, could distinguish between these options. At gigaelectronvolt energies there is also an unusual spectral hardening(15,16)in Centaurus A that has not yet been explained. Here we report observations of Centaurus A at teraelectronvolt energies that resolve its large-scale jet. We interpret the data as evidence for the acceleration of ultrarelativistic electrons in the jet, and favour the synchrotron explanation for the X-rays. Given that this jet is not exceptional in terms of power, length or speed, it is possible that ultrarelativistic electrons are commonplace in the large-scale jets of radio-loud active galaxies. Observations of the radio galaxy Centaurus A at teraelectronvolt energies resolve its large-scale jet and favour electron synchrotron processes as the source of its X-ray emission.
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| 4. |
- Abdalla, H., et al.
(författare)
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Resolving the Crab pulsar wind nebula at teraelectronvolt energies
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature Astronomy. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 2397-3366. ; 4:2, s. 167-173
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An angular extension at gamma-ray energies of 52 arcseconds is detected for the Crab nebula, revealing the emission region of the highest-energy gamma rays; simulations of the electromagnetic emission provide a non-trivial test of our understanding of particle acceleration in the Crab nebula. The Crab nebula is one of the most-studied cosmic particle accelerators, shining brightly across the entire electromagnetic spectrum up to very-high-energy gamma rays(1,2). It is known from observations in the radio to gamma-ray part of the spectrum that the nebula is powered by a pulsar, which converts most of its rotational energy losses into a highly relativistic outflow. This outflow powers a pulsar wind nebula, a region of up to ten light-years across, filled with relativistic electrons and positrons. These particles emit synchrotron photons in the ambient magnetic field and produce very-high-energy gamma rays by Compton up-scattering of ambient low-energy photons. Although the synchrotron morphology of the nebula is well established, it has not been known from which region the very-high-energy gamma rays are emitted(3-8). Here we report that the Crab nebula has an angular extension at gamma-ray energies of 52 arcseconds (assuming a Gaussian source width), much larger than at X-ray energies. This result closes a gap in the multi-wavelength coverage of the nebula, revealing the emission region of the highest-energy gamma rays. These gamma rays enable us to probe a previously inaccessible electron and positron energy range. We find that simulations of the electromagnetic emission reproduce our measurement, providing a non-trivial test of our understanding of particle acceleration in the Crab nebula.
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| 5. |
- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 6. |
- Lu, R.S., et al.
(författare)
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A ring-like accretion structure in M87 connecting its black hole and jet
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 616:7958, s. 686-690
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The nearby radio galaxy M87 is a prime target for studying black hole accretion and jet formation1,2. Event Horizon Telescope observations of M87 in 2017, at a wavelength of 1.3 mm, revealed a ring-like structure, which was interpreted as gravitationally lensed emission around a central black hole3. Here we report images of M87 obtained in 2018, at a wavelength of 3.5 mm, showing that the compact radio core is spatially resolved. High-resolution imaging shows a ring-like structure of [Formula: see text] Schwarzschild radii in diameter, approximately 50% larger than that seen at 1.3 mm. The outer edge at 3.5 mm is also larger than that at 1.3 mm. This larger and thicker ring indicates a substantial contribution from the accretion flow with absorption effects, in addition to the gravitationally lensed ring-like emission. The images show that the edge-brightened jet connects to the accretion flow of the black hole. Close to the black hole, the emission profile of the jet-launching region is wider than the expected profile of a black-hole-driven jet, suggesting the possible presence of a wind associated with the accretion flow.
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| 7. |
- Verra, L., et al.
(författare)
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Controlled Growth of the Self-Modulation of a Relativistic Proton Bunch in Plasma
- 2022
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Ingår i: Physical Review Accelerators and Beams. - : American Physical Society. - 2469-9888. ; 25:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A long, narrow, relativistic charged particle bunch propagating in plasma is subject to the self -modulation (SM) instability. We show that SM of a proton bunch can be seeded by the wakefields driven by a preceding electron bunch. SM timing reproducibility and control are at the level of a small fraction of the modulation period. With this seeding method, we independently control the amplitude of the seed wakefields with the charge of the electron bunch and the growth rate of SM with the charge of the proton bunch. Seeding leads to larger growth of the wakefields than in the instability case.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Nechaeva, T., et al.
(författare)
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Hosing of a Long Relativistic Particle Bunch in Plasma
- 2024
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Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - : American Physical Society. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 132:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Experimental results show that hosing of a long particle bunch in plasma can be induced by wakefields driven by a short, misaligned preceding bunch. Hosing develops in the plane of misalignment, selfmodulation in the perpendicular plane, at frequencies close to the plasma electron frequency, and are reproducible. Development of hosing depends on misalignment direction, its growth on misalignment extent and on proton bunch charge. Results have the main characteristics of a theoretical model, are relevant to other plasma -based accelerators and represent the first characterization of hosing.
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| 10. |
- Verra, L., et al.
(författare)
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Development of the self-modulation instability of a relativistic proton bunch in plasma
- 2023
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Ingår i: Physics of Plasmas. - : American Institute of Physics (AIP). - 1070-664X .- 1089-7674. ; 30:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Self-modulation is a beam-plasma instability that is useful to drive large-amplitude wakefields with bunches much longer than the plasma skin depth. We present experimental results showing that, when increasing the ratio between the initial transverse size of the bunch and the plasma skin depth, the instability occurs later along the bunch, or not at all, over a fixed plasma length because the amplitude of the initial wakefields decreases. We show cases for which self-modulation does not develop, and we introduce a simple model discussing the conditions for which it would not occur after any plasma length. Changing bunch size and plasma electron density also changes the growth rate of the instability. We discuss the impact of these results on the design of a particle accelerator based on the self-modulation instability seeded by a relativistic ionization front, such as the future upgrade of the Advanced WAKefield Experiment.
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