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- Bengtson, S, et al.
(författare)
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Unguided clinical and actuarial assessment of re-offending risk: a direct comparison with sex offenders in Denmark
- 2007
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Ingår i: Sexual abuse : a journal of research and treatment. - : SAGE Publications. - 1079-0632. ; 19:2, s. 135-153
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Meta-analyses suggest that actuarial risk assessments outperform unguided clinical judgment for prediction of recidivism in criminal offenders. However, there is a lack of direct comparisons of the predictive accuracy of clinical judgment and actuarial risk scales for sexual offenders. We followed up 121 male sex offenders (≥18 years) subjected to pre-trial forensic psychiatric assessment in Denmark in 1978-1992 (mean post-detainment time=16.4 years) to compare the predictive validity of unstructured clinical judgment of recidivism risk with that of the well-established Static-99 (Hanson and Thornton, Law and Human Behavior 24:119-136, 2000) and an extension of the Static-99, the Static-2002 (Hanson and Thornton, Notes on the development of Static-2002 (Rep. No. 2003-01), Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada, Ottawa, Canada, 2003). The predictive accuracy of unguided judgment did not exceed chance for any sexual, severe sexual or any violent (sexual or non-sexual) reconviction (AUCs of the ROC curve=0.52, 95%CI=0.41-0.63; 0.50, 95%CI=0.34-0.67; and 0.57, 95%CI= 0.40-0.73, respectively). In contrast, all three outcomes were predicted significantly better than chance by the Static-99 (AUC=0.62, 95%CI=0.52-0.72; 0.72, 95%CI= 0.59-0.84; and 0.71, 95%CI=0.56-0.86) and the Static-2002 (AUC=0.67, 95%CI= 0.57-0.77; 0.69, 95%CI=0.56-0.83; and 0.70, 95%CI=0.55-0.86). Static-99 out-performed clinical judgment for sexual recidivision (χ2=5.11, df=1, p<.05). The Static-2002 was significantly more accurate for the prediction of any sexual recidivism as compared to unguided clinical judgment but its advantage fell just short of statistical significance for severe sexual recidivism (χ2=3.56, df=1, p=0.06). When tested for recidivism within 2 years, none of the three prediction methods yielded results significantly better than chance for any outcome. This direct trial of the unguided clinical method argues against its continued use for risk assessment of sexual offenders.
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| 4. |
- Enebrink, P, et al.
(författare)
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Predicting aggressive and disruptive behavior in referred 6- to 12-year-old boys: prospective validation of the EARL-20B risk/needs checklist
- 2006
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Ingår i: Assessment. - : SAGE Publications. - 1073-1911 .- 1552-3489. ; 13:3, s. 356-367
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The authors investigated the predictive and incremental validity of the Early Assessment Risk List for boys (EARL-20B; Augimeri, Koegl, Webster, & Levene, 2001), a structured clinical checklist designed for the professional judgment of risk for aggressive and disruptive behaviors and risk/needs factor-based management of this risk. Seventy-six boys consecutively referred to child psychiatric outpatient clinics in mid-Sweden were evaluated according to the EARL-20B and with independent (not EARL-20B-based) clinical evaluations. The participants were prospectively followed after 6 and 30 months. EARL- 20B-based assessments were positively and moderately associated with aggressive (reactive and proactive aggression) and disruptive behavior (conduct problems and DSM-IV Conduct Disorder) at both subsequent evaluations. Clinical evaluations made without the instrument were not as consistently associated with outcome. Incremental predictive validity over unstructured clinical evaluations and Conduct Disorder at baseline suggested promising clinical utility. The checklist might be used to support clinical decision making for referred boys at risk for continued antisocial behavior.
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| 9. |
- Fazel, S, et al.
(författare)
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Risk factors for criminal recidivism in older sexual offenders
- 2006
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Ingår i: Sexual abuse : a journal of research and treatment. - : SAGE Publications. - 1079-0632. ; 18:2, s. 159-167
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sexual offenders constitute a substantial proportion of the older male prison population. Recent research findings, with potential consequences for risk management, indicate that recidivism risk might be lower in older sexual offenders. We followed up all adult male sexual offenders released from prison in Sweden during 1993-1997 (N =1,303) for criminal reconviction for an average of 8.9 years. We studied rates of repeat offending (sexual and any violent) by four age bands (<25, 25-39, 40-54, and 55 +years), and examined whether risk factors for recidivism remained stable across age groups. Results showed that recidivism rates decreased significantly in older age bands. In addition, the effect of certain risk factors varied by age band. These findings on recidivism rates in older sexual offenders concur with studies from the United Kingdom, United States, and Canada and may suggest some generalizability in Western settings. Further research is needed to address underlying mechanisms.
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