| 1. |
- Aronsson, Thomas, 1963-, et al.
(författare)
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Alternative parametric bunching estimators of the ETI
- 2018
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We propose a maximum likelihood (ML) based method to improve the bunching approach of measuring the elasticity of taxable income (ETI), and derive the estimator for several model settings that are prevalent in the literature, such as perfect bunching, bunching with optimization frictions, notches, and heterogeneity in the ETI. We show that the ML estimator is more precise and likely less biased than ad-hoc bunching estimators that are typically used in the literature. In the case of optimization frictions in the form of random shocks to earnings, the ML estimation requires a prior of the average size of such shocks. The results obtained in the presence of a notch can differ substantially from those obtained using ad-hoc approaches. If there is heterogeneity in the ETI, the elasticity of the individuals who bunch exceeds the average elasticity in the population.
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| 2. |
- Aronsson, Thomas, 1963-, et al.
(författare)
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The Quality of the Estimators of the ETI
- 2017
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Measuring the elasticity of taxable income (ETI) is central for tax policy design. Yet, there are few arguments which support or infirm that current methods yield measurements of the ETI that can be trusted. Our first purpose is to use simulation methods to assess the bias and precision of the prevalent methods used in the literature (IV estimation and bunching methods). Thereby, we aim at (i) explaining the huge differences in empirical results, and (ii) providing arguments in favor of or against using these methods. Our second purpose is to suggest indirect inference estimation to improve the quality of the measurement. We find that the IV regression estimators may suffer from considerable bias and be quite imprecise, whereas the bunching estimators perform better in our controlled environment. We also show that using more of the information available in the data, estimators based on indirect inference principles produce more precise estimates of the ETI than any of the most commonly used methods.
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| 3. |
- Lanot, Gauthier, et al.
(författare)
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An empirical model of the decision to switch between electricity price contracts
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Business Analytics. - : Taylor & Francis. - 2573-234X .- 2573-2358. ; 2:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, we explore how sensitive the timing of switches between electricity contracts is to current and past prices. We present a model for time series of individual binary decisions which depends on the history of past and present prices. The model is based on the Bayesian learning procedure which is at the core of sequential decision-making. Given a-priori distributions of the information conditional on the state of the world, we show that the model captures dependence on past prices in a straightforward fashion. We estimate by maximum likelihood the parameters of the model on a sample of Swedish households who decide over time between competing electricity price contracts. The estimated parameters suggest that households do respond to prices by switching between contracts and that the response to price can be sizeable for alternative price processes. Importantly, the model structure implies that in general, the response to a price change will not be immediate but delayed.
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| 4. |
- Lanot, Gauthier, et al.
(författare)
-
An empirical model of the decision to switch betweenelectricity price contracts
- 2017
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We present a novel model for a time series of individual binary decisions which depends on the history of prices. The model is based on the Bayesian learning procedure which is at the core of sequential decision making. We show that the model capture dependence on past events and past priors in a straightforward fashion, the model capture some dependence on initial condition, here in the form of the prior at the start of the decision period, and that estimation through maximum likelihood is straightforward. We estimate the parameters of the model on a sample of Swedish households who have to decide over time between competing electricity contracts. The estimated parameters suggest that households respond to prices by switching between contracts, and that the response can be rather substantial for alternative price processes
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| 5. |
- Lanot, Gauthier
(författare)
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French idiosyncracies
- 2016
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Ingår i: The contradictions of Capital in the twenty-first century. - : Agenda. - 9781911116103 - 9781911116110 ; , s. 67-85
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 6. |
- Lanot, Gauthier
(författare)
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Maximum likelihood and economic modeling : maximum likelihood is a general and flexible method to estimate the parameters of models in labor economics
- 2017
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Ingår i: IZA World of Labor. - : Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH. - 2054-9571.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The data available to economists is rarely the outcome of natural or quasi experiments. Inaddition, it is common for distinct individuals to exhibit similar responses in a given environment whileobservationally identical individuals will respond differently to similar incentives. In such situations the useof an economic model fitted using maximum likelihood methods provide a general approach to thedescription of the observed data whatever its nature. The predictions obtained from a fitted model providecrucial information about the distributional consequences of economic policies.
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| 7. |
- Lanot, Gauthier, 1965-, et al.
(författare)
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Mortgage Loan Characteristics, Unobserved Heterogeneity and the Performance of United Kingdom Securitized Subprime Loans
- 2016
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Ingår i: Real estate economics (Print). - : Wiley. - 1080-8620 .- 1540-6229. ; 44:4, s. 771-813
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We estimate a competing risk model of mortgage terminations on samples of U.K. securitized subprime mortgages. Given the role of these loans in the recent financial crisis it is important to understand their performance and supposed idiosyncratic behavior. We use a flexible modelling of unobserved heterogeneity over several dimensions, controlling for selection issues involving initial mortgage choices and dynamic selection over time. We estimate the characteristics of the unobserved heterogeneity and determine the correlation between the unobserved components of default and prepayment. The paper demonstrates the need to estimate initial household choices and the durations to default or prepayment jointly.
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| 8. |
- Lanot, Gauthier, et al.
(författare)
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The national minimum wage and the substitutability between young and old workers in low paid occupations
- 2017
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Ingår i: Manchester School. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1463-6786 .- 1467-9957. ; 85:5, s. 601-633
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We study the effect of the National Minimum Wage (NMW) on the work force age composition within the low paying sectors of the British economy. Our interest is in the degree of substitutability between labour inputs (young and old employees). We find evidence that both the introduction and the regular upratings of the NMW have a significant effect on the observed changes to the relative wages and tothe relative wage bills but not to relative employment. We estimatethe elasticity of substitution, between “young” age groups and older workers (55+) to be zero, while that of “prime” (22+) age and older workers, to be around 0.79. Our estimates therefore imply significant complementarity between younger and old employees.
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| 9. |
- Sousounis, Panos, et al.
(författare)
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Social networks and unemployment exit in Great Britain
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Journal of Social Economics. - 0306-8293 .- 1758-6712. ; 45:8, s. 1205-1226
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect employed friends have on the probability of exiting unemployment of an unemployed worker according to his/her educational (skill) level.Design/methodology/approach: In common with studies on unemployment duration, this paper uses a discrete-time hazard model.Findings: The paper finds that the conditional probability of finding work is between 24 and 34 per cent higher per period for each additional employed friend for job seekers with intermediate skills.Social implications: These results are of interest since they suggest that the reach of national employment agencies could extend beyond individuals in direct contact with first-line employment support bureaus.Originality/value: Because of the lack of appropriate longitudinal information, the majority of empirical studies in the area assess the influence of social networks on employment status using proxy measures of social interactions. The current study contributes to the very limited empirical literature of the influence of social networks on job attainment using direct measures of social structures.
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