| 1. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 2. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 3. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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| 4. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 5. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Huyghe, Jeroen R., et al.
(författare)
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Discovery of common and rare genetic risk variants for colorectal cancer
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 51:1, s. 76-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To further dissect the genetic architecture of colorectal cancer (CRC), we performed whole-genome sequencing of 1,439 cases and 720 controls, imputed discovered sequence variants and Haplotype Reference Consortium panel variants into genome-wide association study data, and tested for association in 34,869 cases and 29,051 controls. Findings were followed up in an additional 23,262 cases and 38,296 controls. We discovered a strongly protective 0.3% frequency variant signal at CHD1. In a combined meta-analysis of 125,478 individuals, we identified 40 new independent signals at P < 5 x 10(-8), bringing the number of known independent signals for CRC to similar to 100. New signals implicate lower-frequency variants, Kruppel-like factors, Hedgehog signaling, Hippo-YAP signaling, long noncoding RNAs and somatic drivers, and support a role for immune function. Heritability analyses suggest that CRC risk is highly polygenic, and larger, more comprehensive studies enabling rare variant analysis will improve understanding of biology underlying this risk and influence personalized screening strategies and drug development.
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| 8. |
- Kanatsuna, N, et al.
(författare)
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Doubly reactive INS-IGF2 autoantibodies in children with newly diagnosed autoimmune (type 1) diabetes
- 2015
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Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Immunology. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0300-9475 .- 1365-3083. ; 82:4, s. 361-369
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The splice variant INS-IGF2 entails the preproinsulin signal peptide, the insulin B-chain, eight amino acids of the C-peptide and 138 unique amino acids from an ORF in the IGF2 gene. The aim of this study was to determine whether levels of specific INS-IGF2 autoantibodies (INS-IGF2A) were related to age at diagnosis, islet autoantibodies, HLA-DQ or both, in patients and controls with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes. Patients (n = 676), 0-18 years of age, diagnosed with type 1 diabetes in 1996-2005 and controls (n = 363) were analysed for specific INS-IGF2A after displacement with both cold insulin and INS-IGF2 to correct for non-specific binding and identify double reactive sera. GADA, IA-2A, IAA, ICA, ZnT8RA, ZnT8WA, ZnT8QA and HLA-DQ genotypes were also determined. The median level of specific INS-IGF2A was higher in patients than in controls (P < 0.001). Irrespective of age at diagnosis, 19% (126/676) of the patients had INS-IGF2A when the cut-off was the 95th percentile of the controls (P < 0.001). The risk of INS-IGF2A was increased among HLA-DQ2/8 (OR = 1.509; 95th CI 1.011, 2.252; P = 0.045) but not in 2/2, 2/X, 8/8, 8/X or X/X (X is neither 2 nor 8) patients. The association with HLA-DQ2/8 suggests that this autoantigen may be presented on HLA-DQ trans-heterodimers, rather than cis-heterodimers. Autoantibodies reactive with both insulin and INS-IGF2A at diagnosis support the notion that INS-IGF2 autoimmunity contributes to type 1 diabetes.
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| 9. |
- Nilsson, Kerstin, et al.
(författare)
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54 forskare: Inte alla klarar höjd pensions-ålder
- 2017
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Ingår i: Svenska Dagbladet, Stockholm. - 1101-2412.
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Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Ett hållbart och acceptabelt pensionssystem måste utformas utifrån personliga förutsättningar och förhållanden i arbetslivet, så att fler klarar att arbeta i högre ålder. Att enbart genom ekonomiska åtgärder höja pensionsåldern är inte långsiktigt hållbart, skriver 54 forskare.DEBATT | PENSIONForskning visar att cirka var fjärde har en diagnos eller skada orsakad av sitt arbete. Detta gör arbetsorsakad sjukdom och skada till ett betydelsefullt folkhälsoproblem. Att då enbart genom ekonomiska åtgärder höja pensionsåldern för samtliga (yrkes)grupper utifrån deras kronologiska ålder är inte långsiktigt hållbart när individers biologiska ålder är så olika bland annat till följd av arbetslivet. Detta är en demokratifråga. Forskning om äldre i arbetslivet och hållbart arbete visar att man då främst flyttar individer från pensionssystemet till sjukförsäkringssystemet och ökar klyftorna i samhället.Debatt Det här är en argumenterande text med syfte att påverka. Åsikterna som uttrycks är skribentens egna.Vi är 54 forskare som nu gemensamt har skrivit denna debattartikel. Anledningen är att vi är oroade över att cirka var fjärde blir sjuk av sitt arbete samtidigt som man i det förslag som ligger om att senarelägga ålderspensionen i princip utgår ifrån att arbetskraftsdeltagande enbart styrs av ekonomin. Vi vill trycka på betydelsen av åtgärder i arbetslivet för att komma tillrätta med ohälsan, det vill säga inte enbart ekonomiska restriktioner som tvingar folk som inte kan, vill och orkar att stanna kvar i arbetslivet till en högre kronologisk ålder.Pensionssystemet bygger på att vi ska arbeta en viss del av våra liv för att förtjäna möjligheter till pension. Vi bör dock inte enbart utgå ifrån antalet år sedan en person föddes, då korttidsutbildade generellt träder in på arbetsmarknaden tidigare än långtidsutbildade. De har alltså varit en del av arbetskraften från en yngre ålder. Människor med kortare utbildning har oftare ett arbete som innebär påfrestningar som kan inverka negativt på hälsotillståndet och som till och med kan påskynda det biologiska åldrandet. Dessutom lever korttidsutbildade generellt sett inte lika länge som långtidsutbildade, vilket delvis även avspeglar skilda livs- och arbetsvillkor.Den svenska sjukförsäkringsreformen 2008 avsåg att få tillbaka människor i arbete. Men studien fann att den faktiskt bidrog till att fler gick i tidig ålderspension av dem som var i åldern 55–64 år. Ökningen var störst bland korttidsutbildade. Mer än 5 procent fler gick i tidig ålderspension då det blev svårare att få sjukpenning och sjukersättning. Vi kan notera att det är vanligare att manliga chefer tar ut tidig ålderspension, jämfört med kvinnliga maskinskötare inom tillverkningsindustrin. I vissa yrken är det dessutom vanligare att människor, trots pension, både orkar och faktiskt ges möjlighet att arbeta vidare om de har en specialkompetens som efterfrågas. Om vi endast kombinerar ekonomiska morötter med piskor finns en stor risk att vi ökar klyftan mellan grupper som både kan och vill fortsätta att yrkesarbeta och personer som av olika skäl inte längre kan eller orkar.Ta nytta av den forskning som vi har tagit fram. Ett hållbart och acceptabelt pensionssystem måste utformas utifrån personliga förutsättningar och förhållanden i arbetslivet. Ett hållbart arbetsliv för allt fler i vår åldrande befolkning fordrar att vi samtidigt beaktar faktorer som relaterar till biologisk/kroppslig ålder, mental/kognitiv ålder samt social ålder/livsloppsfas och våra attityder som är kopplade till ålder. Vi måste ta större hänsyn till olika förutsättningar och varierande funktionsförmåga och utifrån detta anpassa de åtgärder som gör att arbetslivet blir möjligt och hållbart för allt fler även i högre ålder.”Morötter” är viktigare för en god arbetshälsa och hög produktivitet än en piska i form av oron för en dålig ekonomi.Forskning visar att pedagogik som bygger på ”morötter” oftast är betydligt bättre än ”piskor” för att nå framgångsrika och långsiktiga mål. ”Morötter” i samhället, för organisationer, företag och individer är därför viktiga för god arbetshälsa och fortsatt produktivitet och kan bidra till ett längre arbetsliv även för grupper som tidigare inte ens klarat av att arbeta fram till pensionsåldern. Genom forskning inom området har bland annat swage-modellen utarbetats. Detta är ett verktyg som visar på komplexiteten i ett hållbart arbetsliv och tillsammans med systematiskt arbetsmiljöarbete, handlingsplaner och åtgärder syftar till ett mer hållbart arbetsliv. Morötter är enligt forskningen i detta sammanhang åtgärder för en god fysisk och mental arbetsmiljö, avpassad arbetsbelastning, stödjande teknik, att man kan anpassa arbetstakten, alternativa arbetstidsmodeller vid behov. Det är viktigt att man känner sig trygg och förväntas och tillåts vara delaktig, att man blir sedd av chefen och arbetskamraterna. Att de egna arbetsuppgifterna upplevs som meningsfulla och behövda av andra skapar självförverkligande och tillfredsställelse i arbetet. Att man känner att ens arbetsuppgifter och man själv är viktig för organisationen och företaget. Att man trots högre ålder inkluderas i olika nysatsningar och får tillgång till kompetensutveckling och inte blir åsidosatt eller åldersdiskriminerad. Utvärderingar visar att de äldre medarbetarna som fick några av dessa anpassningar och möjligheter var mer effektiva, utvilade, stimulerade när de var på arbetet samtidigt som sjukfrånvaron minskade. Vilket i sin tur bidrar till ett längre arbetsliv för grupper som tidigare inte klarat av att arbeta fram till pensionsåldern. I organisationer som bygger på en deltagar- och lärandekultur rustas de anställda för att klara omställningar, nya arbetsuppgifter och vid behov även yrkesbyten.Med en åldrande befolkning där allt fler lever allt längre behöver vi arbeta till en högre ålder i framtiden för att pensionssystemet ska hålla. Men ”morötter” är viktigare för en god arbetshälsa och hög produktivitet än en piska i form av oron för en dålig ekonomi. Det kräver också att vi ändrar våra attityder och förhållningssätt till äldre på arbetsmarknaden, vilket vi bäst gör genom att organisationer och företag får incitament till och erbjuder mer individanpassade arbetsvillkor, särskilt för personer i högre ålder. Låt oss därför använda den framtagna kunskapen i praktiken för att göra arbetslivet friskt och hållbart för alla åldrar.
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- Nilsson, Kerstin, et al.
(författare)
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Vi är oroade över senare ålderspension
- 2017
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Ingår i: Dagens Samhälle. - 1652-6511.
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Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Var fjärde person blir i dag sjuk till följd av sitt arbete. Att höja pensionsåldern för alla yrkesgrupper, utan konkreta åtgärder för att minska ohälsan, är därför problematiskt och mycket oroande. Det är, enligt forskarna, inte långsiktigt samhällsekonomiskt lönsamt att utan andra åtgärder höja pensionsåldern för alla. Vi – 54 forskare – är mycket oroade över konsekvenserna av att, som föreslagits, senarelägga ålderspensionen.Förslaget utgår i princip från arbetskraftsdeltagande i princip enbart styrs av ekonomin, medan forskningen visar att det bara är en av flera faktorer som styr hur länge och hur mycket människor väljer att arbeta.Det här sättet att lösa problemet med en åldrande befolkning och ett sviktande pensionssystem är inte samhällsekonomiskt lönsamt på lång sikt, utan riskerar bara att flytta runt folk mellan olika ersättningssystem. Pensionssystemet bygger på att vi ska arbeta en viss del av våra liv för att tjäna in vår pension. Vi bör dock inte enbart utgå ifrån ålder eller antalet år sedan en person föddes då korttidsutbildade generellt träder in på arbetsmarknaden tidigare än långtidsutbildade. De med kortare utbildningstid har alltså varit en del av arbetskraften från en yngre ålder. Människor med kortare utbildning har också oftare ett arbete som innebär påfrestningar som kan inverka negativt på hälsotillståndet och som till och med kan påskynda det biologiska åldrandet. Dessutom lever korttidsutbildade generellt sett inte lika länge som långtidsutbildade, vilket delvis även avspeglar skilda livs- och arbetsvillkor.Ta nytta av den forskning som vi har tagit fram. Ekonomin är självklart viktigt för att vi ska vilja arbeta, men den är som sagt enbart en av flera faktorer med betydelse vårt arbetsliv.Hälsotillståndet, både det fysiska och det mentala, har en avgörande betydelse för hur länge och hur mycket vi orkar arbeta. Ett fysiskt och mentalt belastande arbete är en stark riskfaktor för en nedsatt hälsa i slutet av arbetslivet. Arbetstid, arbetstakt och möjlighet till återhämtning spelar en allt större roll ju äldre vi blir. Andra aspekter är arbetsinnehåll, hur meningsfulla och stimulerande arbetsuppgifterna är, balansen mellan arbete och familjesituation och fritidsaktiviteter. Organisationskultur, ledarskapet, stöd i arbetet och kompetens har stor betydelse för om vi ska kunna och vilja arbeta till en högre ålder. Vi måste ta större hänsyn till olika förutsättningar och varierande funktionsförmåga och utifrån detta anpassa de åtgärder som gör att arbetslivet blir möjligt och hållbart för allt fler även i högre ålder.Ett hållbart och acceptabelt pensionssystem måste därför utformas utifrån personliga förutsättningar och förhållanden i arbetslivet. Ett hållbart arbetsliv för allt fler i vår åldrande befolkning fordrar att vi samtidigt beaktar faktorer som relaterar till biologisk/kroppslig ålder, mental/kognitiv ålder samt social ålder/livsloppsfas samt de attityder som är kopplade till ålder.
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