| 1. |
- Fasth, Tobias, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring Conflicts Using Cardinal Ranking : An Application to Decision Analytic Conflict Evaluations
- 2018
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Ingår i: Advances in Operations Research. - : Hindawi Publishing Corporation. - 1687-9147 .- 1687-9155. ; 2018
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- One of the core complexities involved in evaluating decision alternatives in the area of public decision-making is to deal with conflicts. The stakeholders affected by and involved in the decision often have conflicting preferences regarding the actions under consideration. For an executive authority, these differences of opinion can be problematic, during both implementation and communication, even though the decision is rational with respect to an attribute set perceived to represent social welfare. It is therefore important to involve the stakeholders in the process and to get an understanding of their preferences. Otherwise, the stakeholder disagreement can lead to costly conflicts. One way of approaching this problem is to provide means for comprehensive, yet effective stakeholder preference elicitation methods, where the stakeholders can state their preferences with respect to actions part of the current agenda of a government. In this paper we contribute two supporting methods: (i) an application of the cardinal ranking (CAR) method for preference elicitation for conflict evaluations and (ii) two conflict indices for measuring stakeholder conflicts. The application of the CAR method utilizes a do nothing alternative to differentiate between positive and negative actions. The elicited preferences can then be used as input to the two conflict indices indicating the level of conflict within a stakeholder group or between two stakeholder groups. The contributed methods are demonstrated in a real-life example carried out in the municipality of Upplands Väsby, Sweden. We show how a questionnaire can be used to elicit preferences with CAR and how the indices can be used to semantically describe the level of consensus and conflict regarding a certain attribute. As such, we show how the methods can provide decision aid in the clarification of controversies.
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| 2. |
- Große, Christine, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Collaboration and Decision-making in Response Planning for Power Shortages : The Swedish Policy
- 2017
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Electricity is a key resource for the majority of societal functions and constitutes an important sector in the critical infrastructure of modern societies. Disturbances in power supply can have cascading effects on interdependent public sectors and ordinary citizens. However, it seems nearly impossible to completely prevent the occurrence of power shortages. Strategies to address temporary power losses are therefore essential. This paper aims to increase the understanding of national policies to manage the early consequences of power outages. Therefore, we critically review the Swedish national policy called Styrel as part of Swedish Crisis Management System. In the scientific literature, there are few examples similar to Styrel for handling emergencies in the electricity system. Particularly, we seek to discover related risks and benefits, conditions and constraints, as well as effects for specific stakeholders. We argue that the approach cannot yet be considered as fully developed. Three areas requiring improvement are identified. First, the scope and terms of the process must be specified. Second, (better) quality management seems necessary. Third, people responsible for identifying and prioritizing power consumers critical to local society need better decision aid. Improvements could facilitate risk-communication and collaboration among actors as well as decision-making and organisational learning.
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| 3. |
- Große, Christine, 1974-
(författare)
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Strategic Objectives in Complex Planning Environments : Insights from a Swedish Case for Critical Infrastructure Protection
- 2018
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Large-scale and long-term planning imposes extensive requirements on governance efforts regardless of whether it involves public organisations, private organisations, or both. The proportions of such planning entangle many actors and stakeholders as system components within and around a complex system. These system components and conditions in a complex planning environment introduce a diverse variety of strategic objectives into the planning. This study investigates how strategic objectives can affect the governance of complex planning systems, particularly in the context of national critical infrastructure protection. For this purpose, this thesis concentrates on a national planning procedure, STYREL, which Sweden has recently implemented for the case of power shortages. This case involves various actors from the national, regional and local levels who act on behalf of both public and private organisations in a planning process with four-year intervals, and it thus constitutes a relevant subject for this study. The investigation entailed the collection of evidence from documents and interviews. First, publicly available Swedish documents regarding the case provided an understanding of the planning. Second, interviews with decision-makers who are entrusted with this planning at municipalities and county administrative boards as well as with a few planners from power grid providers offered a deeper comprehension of both the proceedings in practice and the strategic objectives involved in this complex system for planning of critical infrastructure protection. Particularly, the findings resulted in several conceptual models that demonstrate these understandings in more detail. A soft system model visualises the problem situation and contains several elements, such as the system components, interrelations and conditions. Moreover, a multi-level planning model specifies sources of uncertainty in the planning and decision-making process that are associated with an insufficient alignment of strategic objectives in the STYREL case. These decompositions of the Swedish planning environment – both horizontal and vertical – further enabled this study to identify significant parameters of the systemic conditions and strategic objectives involved in such complex planning environments that challenge their governance. The findings of this study suggest that the Swedish process is not yet fully developed. The investigation particularly indicates that a better alignment of strategic objectives is necessary to ensure a selection of adequate goals and means that advances the future usability of the produced plan, which in turn would legitimate and strengthen this complex planning process for critical infrastructure protection.
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| 4. |
- Ibrahim, Osama, et al.
(författare)
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A systems tool for structuring public policy problems and design of policy options
- 2017
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Ingår i: International Journal of Electronic Governance. - 1742-7509 .- 1742-7517. ; 9:1-2, s. 4-26
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Systems analysis allows quantitative empirical testing of models that exist in the study of public policy. Simulation and visualisation techniques can help policy makers to reduce uncertainties on the possible impacts of policies. This paper presents a new tool for systems modelling and simulation of policy problems to support the problem analysis, the design of policy options and impact assessment activities. The tool facilitates the cognitive activity of representing complex mental models using system dynamics simulation modelling by defining standards and a procedure for policy modelling. We propose a new policy-oriented problem structuring method (PSM), the 'labelled causal mapping'. The method supports scenario-based dynamic simulation and provides graphical representations of the involved actors, key variables, control flows and causal dependencies in a policy decision situation. A web-based tool prototype has been implemented in a Node.js environment. Two real policy problems are presented for demonstration of the use of the prototype.
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| 5. |
- Komendantova, Nadejda, et al.
(författare)
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Energy for the Future : Evaluating different electricity-generation technologies against selected performance characteristics and stakeholder preferences: Insights from the case study in Jordan
- 2018
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Currently, energy policy in Jordan is facing the challenge of having to cover the country’s electricity demand which is growing because of different factors, among them population growth, cooling of houses, desalination, large consumption centres and industry. The goal to provide reliable and affordable electricity includes diversification of electricity-generation sources from extensive reliance on fossil fuel imports to the generation of electricity from locally available resources, such as renewable energy sources but also nuclear energy and shale oil. Energy transition towards a more significant share of domestically generated resources will inevitably lead to a societal transformation in Jordan, which will affect interests of existing and emerging electricity-generation industries and other stakeholders. To be sustainable, such a transition should also address issues of environmental protection and its contribution to socio-economic development. Therefore, it is necessary to develop compromise solutions to mitigate the risk that differences in views about electricity-generation technologies needed for energy transition will turn into conflicting opinions. Also, energy transition should address not only national energy security targets, but it should also integrate interests of local communities in the vicinity of future electricity-generation and transmission infrastructure. This report is based on the assumption that human factors play an important role in energy transition. These human factors include perceptions of different risks connected with the use of certain technologies as well as views about benefits and impacts generated by different technologies. An innovative methodology was developed to address these views. This methodology allows us to assess the relevance of Jordan’s electricity-generation technologies, such as utility-scale photovoltaic (PV), concentrated solar power (CSP), onshore wind, utility-scale hydro-electric, bituminous coal, heavy fuel oil, shale oil and natural gas against a set of criteria, which reflect environmental, social and economic components of sustainable development. The results show that stakeholders prefer utility PV technology over all other technologies. The results also show that at the time of writing, the discourse in Jordanian society is dominated by economic rationality, such as electricity costs, supported by concerns about safety during operation and maintenance of electricity-generation power plans. The results also show a strong desire of all stakeholder groups for an opportunity to engage in decision-making processes on energy transition as the alternative of being simply compensated for the installation of electricity-generation and -transmission technologies does not appeal to local communities.
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| 6. |
- Larsson, Aron, 1976-, et al.
(författare)
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Agent based simulation of a payment system for resilience assessments
- 2017
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Ingår i: 2017 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (IEEM). - : IEEE. - 9781538609484 - 9781538609491 ; , s. 314-318
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- We provide an agent based simulation model of the Swedish payment system. The simulation model is to be used to analyze the consequences of loss of functionality, or disruptions of the payment system for the food and fuel supply chains as well as the bank sector. We propose a gaming simulation approach, using a computer based role playing game, to explore the collaborative responses from the key actors, in order to evoke and facilitate collective resilience.
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| 7. |
- Larsson, Aron, et al.
(författare)
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Cardinal and Rank Ordering of Criteria — Addressing Prescription within Weight Elicitation
- 2015
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Ingår i: International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making. - : World Scientific. - 0219-6220 .- 1793-6845. ; 14
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Weight elicitation methods in multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are often cognitively demanding, require too much precision, time and effort. Some of the issues may be remedied by connecting elicitation methods to an inference engine facilitating a quick and easy method for decision-makers to use weaker input statements, yet being able to utilize these statements in a method for decision evaluation. In this paper, we propose a fast and practically useful weight elicitation method, answering to many of the requirements. The method builds on the ideas of rank-order methods, but can also take imprecise cardinal information into account. The method is subsequently employed in two real-life case studies and compared to a case where a simple ratio weight procedure using exact input statements was employed.
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| 8. |
- Olausson, Pär M., 1968-, et al.
(författare)
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Från myndighet till medborgare och tillbaka: En studie av samverkan och kommunikation inomramen för STYREL
- 2018
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Rapport (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- STYREL är en planeringsprocess som syftar till att säkra elförsörjningen vid ensituation av elbrist. Att STYREL är en viktig planeringsprocess med stor betydelseför att trygga elförsörjningen till samhällsviktiga elanvändare är en uppfattningsamtliga intervjuade uttrycker. Samtidigt råder det också konsensus kring attprocessen är i behov av utveckling och förändring för att uppnå de syften somligger bakom processen.Empirin för undersökningen har utgjorts av centrala dokument och utredningar,65 intervjuer, deltagande observation samt deltagande vid möten ochnätverksträffar inom ramen för planeringsprocessen. Den kritiska granskningen avprocessen visar att det finns flera förbättringsområden som bör beaktas i syfte atthöja kvaliteten och minska risken för att viktiga samhällsfunktioner blir utan elvid en situation av elbrist. De områden som särskilt lyfts fram i studien handlarom nödvändigheten av att integrera löpande feedback i planeringssystemet, attskapa nätverk på både lokal och regional nivå för att tillförsäkra att intesamhällsviktiga privata aktörer eller aktörer inom det civila samhället faller bort iplaneringen samt att ytterligare tydliggöra de olika stegen och de olika rollerna iplaneringssystemet. I detta arbete går det att finna lösningar som redan beprövatsdels i jämförelse med internationella processer kring kritisk infrastruktur, dels inationella processer inom krishanteringssystemet.
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| 9. |
- Samstad, Anna, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing Stakeholder Preferences in Urban Planning : A Multi-Attribute Utility Approach
- 2019
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Ingår i: 2019 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (IEEM). - : IEEE. - 9781728138053 - 9781728138046 - 9781728138039 ; , s. 1417-1421
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In urban planning, decision makers often need to take a variety of aspects into account, including stakeholder attitudes. The purpose of this paper is to compare how decision makers and the public assess different criteria in an urban planning project. The study was carried out through interviews and a survey about an urban planning project. By compiling data using multi-attribute utility theory, it was possible to reveal similarities and differences between the decision makers and the public. The findings reveal that the perceived value of the project differed greatly between these two perspectives: The public’s opinion was closer to a status quo perspective, while the decision makers were more optimistic about the project. While some of the differences can partly be explained by uncertainty about the project and the criteria, the results reveal the importance of including the public in an early stage of these initiatives. Furthermore, the multi-attribute utility approach is a useful tool for compiling assessments, but additional data is needed for gaining further understanding of stakeholder preferences. Therefore, a mixed-methods approach to collecting stakeholder preferences is suggested.
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| 10. |
- Sundberg, Leif, 1980-
(författare)
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Public Values and Decision Making in the Swedish e-Government Context
- 2017
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis addresses topics of public values and decision making in relation to the use of technology in the public sector. The research is conducted in the Swedish government context. A range of values that is specific to the public sector has been defined and classified in prior research. These public values can be defined as normative agreements of how a government should act. The Swedish government spends SEK 46.5 billion on information technology every year. Some of these funds are invested in improvements that are intended to increase efficiency and openness, as well as to make it easier for citizens to use government services. Such ambitions are studied in the e-Government research field. The literature suggests that reasons to question the promised values of implementing technology in the public sector exist and that many initiatives ultimately fail. The public sector has some unique features that may increase complexity, such as the variety of stakeholders and multitude of organizations that are both involved in the development process and affected by the outcomes. The purpose of this thesis is to explore public values and decision making in the Swedish e-Government context by posing three research questions. 1: How can public values be utilized in decision making? 2: Under what conditions are decisions made in the studied context? 3: How can value-based decision making be adopted by e-Government practice? The thesis is based on quantitative and qualitative data gathered from case studies and a survey. Its theoretical contribution is a comparison of theoretical concepts from decision theory and public values, which are then applied to e-Government. Several fragmented concepts from e-Government can be tied together under decision theory. The study’s results show that many decisions are taken under a great deal of uncertainty due to the absence of formal support mechanisms. The Swedish public administration leans toward a variety of project models in its work with e-Government, and these models constitute the arena in which decisions are made and risk analysis is performed. However, many risks as well as opportunities reside beyond the studied projects’ control. Holistic stakeholder inclusion and risk analysis are suggested as practices beneficial for increasing value and reducing uncertainty. The thesis concludes by suggesting that further research should continue to apply concepts from decision theory on e-Government. This includes revealing the motivations and values behind digitalization of the public sector.
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