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- Lehtveer, Mariliis, 1983, et al.
(författare)
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Estonian energy supply strategy assessment for 2035 and its vulnerability to climate driven shocks
- 2016
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Ingår i: Environmental Progress and Sustainable Energy. - : Wiley. - 1944-7442 .- 1944-7450. ; 35:2, s. 469-478
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Estonia is a relatively small country with a limited supply of indigenous energy resources mainly consisting of oil shale, wood, and peat. Estonia is also the only country in Europe with a dominant electricity production by burning oil shale. Around 90% of the overall electric energy production in Estonia comes from the Narva Power Plants. This presents great challenges and problems due to massive emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere as well as radiological impact on the environment. Therefore, the current energy supply strategy can be considered hazardous and an unpopular choice for future energy system planning. In this article, we analyze the current energy policy as well as inclusion of new strategies to produce electricity for Estonia for a target year of 2035. We use a computer model Model for Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts (MESSAGE) to provide optimization and aim in helping the policymakers in the Estonian decision making process. We also add a specific case in the MESSAGE model to examine the ability of the current electricity supply strategy to handle climate related shocks with a special focus on cold weather in two plausible cases; single cold winter and prolonged cold winter. Results indicate that unexpected demand shocks may cause serious losses in gross domestic product (GDP). Therefore, the authors come to the conclusion that extra capacity is highly recommendable for a number of reasons. We also find that nuclear power becomes economically preferable to oil shale with a CO2 tax of Euro20/t. Yet moving toward nuclear or other low CO2 alternatives presents certain challenges. (c) 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog, 35: 469-478, 2016
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| 2. |
- Lehtveer, Mariliis, 1983
(författare)
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Modelling the Role of Nuclear Power and Variable Renewables in Climate Change Mitigation
- 2016
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- As the number of people on Earth and our energy needs have increased the system for providing this energy has become ever more complex and complicated and thus the need for more systematic understanding of it has grown. However, change in energy system is slow and many of the challenges that we face such as mitigating climate change need global solutions. Energy system models with long time span and global reach provide a way to analyse questions related to these challenges. This thesis focuses on capturing the role of nuclear power and variable renewables in global long term energy models.Papers I, II and IV assess the potential role nuclear power can play in global climate mitigation as well as identify the determining factors of this contribution whereas Paper III looks at the possible effects of phase out of Swedish nuclear power on European CO2 emissions and electricity prices. We show that nuclear power can reduce the climate change mitigation cost if allowed to remain or expand. The main factors determining the cost reduction potential are availability and cost of carbon capture and storage and cost of renewable and nuclear technologies. However, to decide whether to allow for a large scale expansion of nuclear power, the observed cost savings must be weighed against increased risks of accidental radiation releases from reactor operation, waste storage and nuclear weapons proliferation. To make this decision economic as well as non-economic factors should also be considered.To analyse such concerns we use post analysis of model scenarios in Paper I to assess the nuclear power expansion’s effect on nuclear weapons’ proliferation and apply the multi-criteria model analysis (MCMA) method in Paper IV to actively include criteria such as proliferation concern and energy security into optimisation. We find that MCMA method significantly improves the analysis of attainability of multiple simultaneous goals such in large-scale energy-systems models compared to simple scenario analysis that is presented in Paper I. The approach is more intuitive and requires minimal mathematical skills on the part of the user. MCMA method also avoids infeasible or dominated solutions that are caused by the stringent constraints applied in parametric optimisation.Paper V presents a method for capturing the effects of intermittency induced by variable renewables into the power system. Our results show that this approach manages to capture many aspects such as need for flexible generation capacity and curtailment at high penetration levels. We also find optimal electricity production mixes to vary significantly between regions due to different endowments of solar and wind resources. We show that adding electricity storage to the system will favour solar power but has only a minor effect on wind and nuclear power.
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| 3. |
- Lehtveer, Mariliis, 1983, et al.
(författare)
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Using Resource Based Slicing to Capture the Intermittency of Variable Renewables
- 2016
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- As the share of variable renewables – wind and solar PV – is expected to grow significantly in coming decades, it has become increasingly important to account for their intermittency in large scale energy models that are used to explore long term energy futures. In this paper we propose and evaluate one method for doing so, namely, resource based slicing. In addition we implement storage based on possible transitions between slices which allows us to explore new dynamics between intermittent generation and electricity storage in large scale models. Our preliminary results show that this approach manages to capture many aspects introduced by variable renewables such as need for flexible generation capacity and curtailment at high penetration levels. We show that adding electricity storage to the system will favour solar power but has only a minor effect on wind and nuclear power.
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