| 1. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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| 2. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 3. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Lind, Lars, et al.
(författare)
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Genetic and methylation variation in the CYP2B6 gene is related to circulating p,p '-dde levels in a population-based sample
- 2017
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Ingår i: Environment International. - Oxford, United Kingdom : Elsevier. - 0160-4120 .- 1873-6750. ; 98, s. 212-218
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives: Since the metabolism of the organochlorine pesticide dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) is not fully known in humans, we evaluated if circulating levels of a major breakdown product of DDT, p,p'-DDE, were related to genome-wide genetic and methylation variation in a population-based sample.Methods: In the population-based Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS) study (1016 subjects all aged 70), circulating levels of p, p'-DDE were analyzed by high-resolution chromatography coupled to high-resolution mass spectrometry (HRGC/HRMS). Genetic variants were genotyped and imputed (1000 Genomes reference, March 2012 release). Methylation sites were assayed using the Illumina HumanMethylation450 array in whole blood. A genome-wide association study (GWAS) approach was applied.Results: Evidence for genome-wide significant association with p,p'-DDE levels was observed only for a locus at chromosome 19 corresponding to the CYP2B6 gene (lead SNP rs7260538). Subjects being homozygote for the G allele showed a median level of 472 ng/g lipid, while the corresponding level for those being homozygote for the T allelewas 192 ng/g lipid (p= 1.5x10(-31)). An analysis conditioned on the lead SNP disclosed a distinct signal in the same gene (rs7255374, position chr19: 41520351; p= 2.2 x 10(-8)). A whole-genome methylation analysis showed one significant relationship vs. p,p'-DDE levels (p= 6.2 x 10(-9)) located 7 kb downstreamthe CYP2B6 gene (cg27089200, position chr19: 41531976). This CpG-sitewas also related to the lead SNP (p = 3.8 x 10(-35)), but mediated only 4% of the effect of the lead SNP on p, p'-DDE levels.Conclusion: Circulating levels of p, p'-DDE were related to genetic variation in the CYP2B6 gene in the general elderly population. DNA methylation in this gene is not closely linked to the p, p'-DDE levels.
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| 6. |
- Lind, Lars, et al.
(författare)
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Uppsala Consensus Statement on Environmental Contaminants and the Global Obesity Epidemic
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Health Perspectives. - : Environmental Health Perspectives. - 0091-6765 .- 1552-9924. ; 124:5, s. A81-A83
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- From the lectures presented at the 2nd International Workshop on Obesity and Environmental Contaminants, which was held in Uppsala, Sweden, on 8–9 October 2015, it became evident that the findings from numerous animal and epidemiological studies are consistent with the hypothesis that environmental contaminants could contribute to the global obesity epidemic. To increase awareness of this important issue among scientists, regulatory agencies, politicians, chemical industry management, and the general public, the authors summarize compelling scientific evidence that supports the hypothesis and discuss actions that could restrict the possible harmful effects of environmental contaminants on obesity.
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| 7. |
- Ng, Esther, et al.
(författare)
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Genome-wide association study of plasma levels of polychlorinated biphenyls disclose an association with the CYP2B6 gene in a population-based sample
- 2015
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Ingår i: Environmental Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0013-9351 .- 1096-0953. ; 140, s. 95-101
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are a group of man-made environmental pollutants which accumulate in humans with adverse health effects. To date, very little effort has been devoted to the study of the metabolism of PCBs on a genome-wide level.Objectives: Here, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify genomic regions involved in the metabolism of PCBs.Methods: Plasma levels of 16 PCBs ascertained in a cohort of elderly individuals from Sweden (n=1016) were measured using gas chromatography-high resolution mass spectrophotometry (GC-HRMS). DNA samples were genotyped on the Infinium Omni Express bead microarray, and imputed up to reference panels from the 1000 Genomes Project. Association testing was performed in a linear regression framework under an additive model.Results: Plasma levels of PCB-99 demonstrated genome-wide significant association with single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) mapping to chromosome 19q13.2. The SNP with the strongest association was rs8109848 (p=3.7 x 10(-13)), mapping to an intronic region of CYP2B6. Moreover, when all PCBs were conditioned on PCB-99, further signals were revealed for PCBs -74, -105 and -118, mapping to the same genomic region. The lead SNPs were rs8109848 (p=3.8 x 10(-12)) for PCB-118, rs4802104 (p= 1.4 x 10(-9)) for PCB-74 and rs4803413 (p=2.5 x 10(-9)) for PCB-105, all of which map to CYP2B6.Conclusions: In our study, we found plasma levels of four lower-chlorinated PCBs to be significantly associated with the genetic region mapping to the CYP2B6 locus. These findings show that CYP2B6 is of importance for the metabolism of PCBs in humans, and may help to identify individuals who may be susceptible to PCB toxicity. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Ax, Erika, et al.
(författare)
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Circulating levels of environmental contaminants are associated with dietary patterns in older adults
- 2015
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Ingår i: Environment International. - Oxford, United Kingdom : Elsevier. - 0160-4120 .- 1873-6750. ; 75, s. 93-102
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Food intake contributes substantially to our exposure to environmental contaminants. Still, little is known about our dietary habits' contribution to exposure variability.Objective: The aim of this study was to assess circulating levels of environmental contaminants in relation to predefined dietary patterns in an elderly Swedish population.Methods: Dietary data and serum concentrations of environmental contaminants were obtained from 844 70-year-old Swedish subjects (50% women) in the Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS) study. Dietary data from 7-day food records was used to assess adherence to a Mediterranean-like diet, a low carbohydrate-high protein diet and the WHO dietary recommendations. Circulating levels of 6 polychlorinated biphenyl markers, 3 organochlorine pesticides, 1 dioxin and 1 polybrominated diphenyl ether, the metals cadmium, lead, mercury and aluminum and serum levels of bisphenol A and 4 phthalate metabolites were investigated in relation to dietary patterns in multivariate linear regression models.Results: A Mediterranean-like diet was positively associated with levels of several polychlorinated biphenyls (118, 126, 153, and 209), trans-nonachlor and mercury. A low carbohydrate-high protein diet was positively associated with polychlorinated biphenyls 118 and 153, trans-nonachlor, hexachlorobenzene and p, p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene, mercury and lead. The WHO recommended diet was negatively related to levels of dioxin and lead, and borderline positively to polychlorinated biphenyl 118 and trans-nonachlor.Conclusion: Dietary patterns were associated in diverse manners with circulating levels of environmental contaminants in this elderly Swedish population. Following the WHO dietary recommendations seems to be associated with a lower burden of environmental contaminants.
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| 10. |
- Dunder, Linda, et al.
(författare)
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Low-dose developmental bisphenol A exposure alters fatty acid metabolism in Fischer 344 rat offspring
- 2018
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Ingår i: Environmental Research. - : Elsevier. - 0013-9351 .- 1096-0953. ; 166, s. 117-129
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background. Bisphenol A (BPA) is an endocrine disruptor and also a suggested obesogen and metabolism-disrupting chemical. Accumulating data indicates that the fatty acid (FA) profile and their ratios in plasma and other metabolic tissues are associated with metabolic disorders. Stearoyl-CoA desaturase 1 (SCD-1) is a key regulator of lipid metabolism and its activity can be estimated by dividing the FA product by its precursor measured in blood or other tissues. Objective: The primary aim of this study was to investigate the effect of low-dose developmental BPA exposure on tissue-specific FA composition including estimated SCD-1 activity, studied in 5- and 52-week (wk)-old Fischer 344 (F344) rat offspring. Methods: Pregnant F344 rats were exposed to BPA via their drinking water corresponding to 0: [CTRL], 0.5: [BPA0.5], or 50 mu g/kg BW/day: [BPA50], from gestational day 3.5 until postnatal day 22. Results: BPA0.5 increased SCD-16 (estimated as the 16:1n-7/16:0 ratio) and SCD-18 (estimated as the 18:1n-9/ 18:0 ratio) indices in inguinal white adipose tissue triglycerides (iWAT-TG) and in plasma cholesterol esters (PL-CE), respectively, in 5-wk-old male offspring. In addition, BPA0.5 altered the FA composition in male offspring, e.g. by decreasing levels of the essential polyunsaturated FA linoleic acid (18:2n-6) in iWAT-and liver-TG. No differences were observed regarding the studied FAs in 52-wk-old offspring, although a slightly increased BW was observed in 52-wk-old female offspring. Conclusions: Low-dose developmental BPA exposure increased SCD-16 in iWAT-TG and SCD-18 in PL-CE of male offspring, which may reflect higher SCD-1 activity in these tissues. Altered desaturation activity and signs of altered FA composition are novel findings that may indicate insulin resistance in the rat offspring. These aforementioned results, together with the observed increased BW, adds to previously published data demonstrating that BPA can act as a metabolism disrupting chemical.
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