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| 2. |
- Emile-Geay, J., et al.
(författare)
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Data Descriptor: A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era
- 2017
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Ingår i: Scientific Data. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2052-4463. ; 4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850-2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high-and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python. Since the pioneering work of D'Arrigo and Jacoby1-3, as well as Mann et al. 4,5, temperature reconstructions of the Common Era have become a key component of climate assessments6-9. Such reconstructions depend strongly on the composition of the underlying network of climate proxies10, and it is therefore critical for the climate community to have access to a community-vetted, quality-controlled database of temperature-sensitive records stored in a self-describing format. The Past Global Changes (PAGES) 2k consortium, a self-organized, international group of experts, recently assembled such a database, and used it to reconstruct surface temperature over continental-scale regions11 (hereafter, ` PAGES2k-2013'). This data descriptor presents version 2.0.0 of the PAGES2k proxy temperature database (Data Citation 1). It augments the PAGES2k-2013 collection of terrestrial records with marine records assembled by the Ocean2k working group at centennial12 and annual13 time scales. In addition to these previously published data compilations, this version includes substantially more records, extensive new metadata, and validation. Furthermore, the selection criteria for records included in this version are applied more uniformly and transparently across regions, resulting in a more cohesive data product. This data descriptor describes the contents of the database, the criteria for inclusion, and quantifies the relation of each record with instrumental temperature. In addition, the paleotemperature time series are summarized as composites to highlight the most salient decadal-to centennial-scale behaviour of the dataset and check mutual consistency between paleoclimate archives. We provide extensive Matlab code to probe the database-processing, filtering and aggregating it in various ways to investigate temperature variability over the Common Era. The unique approach to data stewardship and code-sharing employed here is designed to enable an unprecedented scale of investigation of the temperature history of the Common Era, by the scientific community and citizen-scientists alike.
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| 3. |
- Smerdon, J. E., et al.
(författare)
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Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era
- 2017
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 13:12, s. 1851-1900
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage is insufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal to centennial variability and highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate simulations from climate models are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding of hydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing the uncertainties and limitations of both while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specific review of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as is a discussion of expected improvements in estimated radiative forcings, models, and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies and last-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how to perform proxy-model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons and how they can better inform interpretations of both proxy data and model simulations. We subsequently explore means of using proxy-model comparisons to better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examples that demonstrate how proxy-model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimated from climate model projections.
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| 4. |
- Buntgen, U., et al.
(författare)
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Tree rings reveal globally coherent signature of cosmogenic radiocarbon events in 774 and 993 CE
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Though tree-ring chronologies are annually resolved, their dating has never been independently validated at the global scale. Moreover, it is unknown if atmospheric radiocarbon enrichment events of cosmogenic origin leave spatiotemporally consistent fingerprints. Here we measure the 14C content in 484 individual tree rings formed in the periods 770–780 and 990–1000 CE. Distinct 14C excursions starting in the boreal summer of 774 and the boreal spring of 993 ensure the precise dating of 44 tree-ring records from five continents. We also identify a meridional decline of 11-year mean atmospheric radiocarbon concentrations across both hemispheres. Corroborated by historical eye-witness accounts of red auroras, our results suggest a global exposure to strong solar proton radiation. To improve understanding of the return frequency and intensity of past cosmic events, which is particularly important for assessing the potential threat of space weather on our society, further annually resolved 14C measurements are needed.
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| 6. |
- Calkovska, A, et al.
(författare)
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Phospholipid Composition in Synthetic Surfactants Is Important for Tidal Volumes and Alveolar Stability in Surfactant-Treated Preterm Newborn Rabbits
- 2016
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Ingår i: Neonatology. - : S. Karger AG. - 1661-7819 .- 1661-7800. ; 109:3, s. 177-185
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- <b><i>Background:</i></b> The development of synthetic surfactants for the treatment of lung pulmonary diseases has been going on for many years. <b><i>Objectives:</i></b> To investigate the effects of phospholipid mixtures combined with SP-B and SP-C analogues on lung functions in an animal model of respiratory distress syndrome. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> Natural and synthetic phospholipid mixtures with/without SP-B and/or SP-C analogues were instilled in ventilated premature newborn rabbits. Lung functions were evaluated. <b><i>Results:</i></b> Treatment with Curosurf® or phospholipids from Curosurf combined with SP-B and SP-C analogues gave similar results. Treatment with phospholipids from adult rabbit lungs or liver combined with dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine (DPPC) and palmitoyloleoylphosphatidylglycerol (POPG) gave tidal volumes (V<sub>T</sub>) well above physiological levels, but alveolar stability at end-expiration was only achieved when these phospholipids were combined with analogues of SP-B and SP-C. Treatment with egg yolk-PC mixed with DPPC with and without POPG gave small V<sub>T</sub>, but after addition of both analogues V<sub>T</sub> was only somewhat lower and lung gas volumes (LGV) similar to those obtained with Curosurf. Substitution of egg yolk-PC (≥99% PC) with 1-palmitoyl-2-oleoyl-<i>sn</i>-glycero-3-phosphocholine and 1-palmitoyl-2-linoleoyl-<i>sn</i>-glycero-3-phosphocholine, and combining them with DPPC, POPG and 2% each of the SP-B and SP-C analogue gave a completely synthetic surfactant with similar effects on V<sub>T</sub> and LGV as Curosurf. <b><i>Conclusions:</i></b> Phospholipid composition is important for V<sub>T</sub> while the SP-B and SP-C analogues increase alveolar stability at end-expiration. Synthetic surfactant consisting of unsaturated and saturated phosphatidylcholines, POPG and the analogues of SP-B and SP-C has similar activity as Curosurf regarding V<sub>T</sub> and LGV in an animal model using preterm newborn rabbits ventilated without positive end-expiratory pressure.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Cook, ER, et al.
(författare)
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Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era
- 2015
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Ingår i: Science Advances. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 2375-2548. ; 1:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other “Old World” climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the “Old World Drought Atlas” (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era. TheOWDAmatches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability.
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| 9. |
- Liu, Jiandong, et al.
(författare)
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Changes in the relationship between solar radiation and sunshine duration in large cities of China
- 2015
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Ingår i: Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-5442. ; 82, s. 589-600
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Based on the linear relationship between solar radiation and sunshine duration, the Angstrom model is widely used to estimate solar radiation from routinely observed meteorological variables for energy exploitation. However, the relationship may have changed in quickly developing regions in the recent decades under global "dimming" and "brightening" context, with increasing aerosols due to industrial pollutions. Solar radiation stations under different climate conditions in six large cities in China are selected to test this hypothesis. Analysis of the related meteorological items shows that Guiyang has the lowest solar radiation with the average annual value of 10.5 MJm(-2)d(-1), while Lhasa on the Tibetan Plateau has the highest of 20.1 MJm(-2)d(-1). Both radiation and sunshine hours decreased from 1961 to 2010, but at different rates. A moving linear regression method is used to investigate the changes in the relationship between radiation and sunshine duration, the results indicate an abrupt change in the correlation coefficients in 1980-1990s, which can be attributed to the aerosol load resulting from air pollution caused by the industrial development in 1980s under China's Open Door Policy. The sky condition has been changing from clean to dirty, thus the relationship between solar radiation and duration changes in the 1980's and has recovered in the recent decades. This finding implies that it might not necessarily be right to use long data sets for model calibration. Further investigation confirms that the Angstrom model performs the best with higher NSE (nash-sutcliffe efficiency) of 0.914 and lower MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) and RMSE (root mean square error) values of 13.7 w/m(2) and 23.9 w/m(2) respectively, when calibrated with a 10-year data set. In contrast, the model performs worst when it is calibrated with a 40-year data set, with NSE, MAPE and RMSE values of 0.891, 15.1 w/m(2) and 25.3 w/m(2), respectively. Based on the findings of this research, a 10-year data set is recommended as the national standard for model calibration in rapidly developing regions of China. Further analogous investigations are needed in other industrial regions to make an international standard for Angstrom model calibration. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 10. |
- Liu, Y., et al.
(författare)
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Anthropogenic Aerosols Cause Recent Pronounced Weakening of Asian Summer Monsoon Relative to Last Four Centuries
- 2019
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 46:10, s. 5469-5479
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) affects ecosystems, biodiversity, and food security of billions of people. In recent decades, ASM strength (as represented by precipitation) has been decreasing, but instrumental measurements span only a short period of time. The initiation and the dynamics of the recent trend are unclear. Here for the first time, we use an ensemble of 10 tree ring-width chronologies from the west-central margin of ASM to reconstruct detail of ASM variability back to 1566 CE. The reconstruction captures weak/strong ASM events and also reflects major locust plagues. Notably, we found an unprecedented 80-year trend of decreasing ASM strength within the context of the 448-year reconstruction, which is contrary to what is expected from greenhouse warming. Our coupled climate model shows that increasing anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions over the Northern Hemisphere could be the dominant factor contributing to the ASM decrease. Plan Language Summary Monsoonal rainfall has a certain influence on agriculture and industry in the regions of Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). An understanding of the spatial-temporal variability of the ASM and the associated dynamics is vital for terrestrial ecosystems, water resources, forests, and landscapes. We have developed a 448-year ASM reconstruction back to 1566 CE using 10 tree ring chronologies from the margin region of ASM. We find that historical severe droughts and locust plague disasters during weak ASM events. The recent decreasing ASM trend persisting for over 80 years is unprecedented over the past 448 years. Coupled climate models show that increasing anthropogenic aerosol emissions are the dominant underlying factor. Our aim is that the time series will find a wide range of utility for understanding past climate variability and for predicting future climate change.
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