| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Blösch, Günter, et al.
(författare)
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Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) - a community perspective
- 2019
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 64:10, s. 1141-1158
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come.
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| 4. |
- Cai, Xiaoping, et al.
(författare)
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Fabrication of Highly Porous CuAl Intermetallic by Thermal Explosion Using NaCl Space Holder
- 2018
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Ingår i: JOM. - : The Minerals, Metals, and Materials Society. - 1047-4838 .- 1543-1851. ; 70:10, s. 2173-2178
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A high-porosity CuAl-based intermetallic compound with composition Cu-50 at.% Al has been successfully prepared by thermal explosion (TE) using NaCl as space holder. The results showed that the NaCl particles were completely removed from the green compact by water leaching. The temperature of the specimen during the TE and the evolution of the porous microstructure were investigated. The TE was ignited at 560°C, and the specimen temperature increased to 775°C in 3 s, resulting in formation of intermetallic CuAl and CuAl2 phases in the final product. A porous CuAl-based intermetallic compound with up to 62 vol.% open porosity was produced when adding 60 vol.% NaCl. The compound exhibited a bimodal pore size structure, including large pores (200 μm to 300 μm) that replicated the NaCl particles and small pores (5 μm to 10 μm) interspersed in the pore walls. Moreover, the large pores were interconnected by channels and formed an open CuAl-based intermetallic cellular structure, having great potential for use in heat exchange and filtration applications.
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| 5. |
- Cai, Xiaoping, et al.
(författare)
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Oxidation Resistance of Highly Porous Fe-Al Foams Prepared by Thermal Explosion
- 2018
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Ingår i: Metallurgical and Materials Transactions. A. - : Springer. - 1073-5623 .- 1543-1940. ; 49A:8, s. 3683-3691
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Open-cell Fe-Al intermetallic foams were successfully prepared by a simple and energy-saving thermal explosion (TE) process. The effects of the Fe/Al molar ratio (Fe-(40–50) at. pct Al) and thermal treatment temperature on the TE temperature profile, phase composition, pore characteristics, and oxidation resistance of the prepared foams were investigated. The results showed that the Al content significantly influenced the ignition (Tig) and combustion (Tc) temperatures of the TE process; in particular, as the Al content decreased, Tig increased gradually from 623 °C to 636 °C and Tc decreased from 1059 °C to 981 °C. FeAl was identified as the dominant phase in the thermally treated foams. The Fe-Al intermetallic foams displayed an open porosity of 60 vol pct, with pores connected with each other to form an open pore structure. The formation of the pores was attributed to the expansion of interparticle pores in the pressed body during the TE reaction. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy analysis of the Fe-50Al foam showed that the Al 2p and O 1s binding energies were 74.5 eV and at 531.4 eV, respectively. The formation of a surface alumina layer in the early stages of the oxidation process resulted in the parabolic oxidation rate law, and the Fe-50Al foams exhibited an excellent resistance to oxidation at 650 °C in air. These results suggest that the synthesized Fe-Al foams represent promising materials for applications involving an oxidizing environment and high temperatures.
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| 6. |
- Couch, Fergus J., et al.
(författare)
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Identification of four novel susceptibility loci for oestrogen receptor negative breast cancer
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 2041-1723. ; 7:11375, s. 1-13
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Common variants in 94 loci have been associated with breast cancer including 15 loci with genome-wide significant associations (P<5 x 10(-8)) with oestrogen receptor (ER)-negative breast cancer and BRCA1-associated breast cancer risk. In this study, to identify new ER-negative susceptibility loci, we performed a meta-analysis of 11 genome-wide association studies (GWAS) consisting of 4,939 ER-negative cases and 14,352 controls, combined with 7,333 ER-negative cases and 42,468 controls and 15,252 BRCA1 mutation carriers genotyped on the iCOGS array. We identify four previously unidentified loci including two loci at 13q22 near KLF5, a 2p23.2 locus near WDR43 and a 2q33 locus near PPIL3 that display genome-wide significant associations with ER-negative breast cancer. In addition, 19 known breast cancer risk loci have genome-wide significant associations and 40 had moderate associations (P<0.05) with ER-negative disease. Using functional and eQTL studies we implicate TRMT61B and WDR43 at 2p23.2 and PPIL3 at 2q33 in ER-negative breast cancer aetiology. All ER-negative loci combined account for similar to 11% of familial relative risk for ER-negative disease and may contribute to improved ER-negative and BRCA1 breast cancer risk prediction.
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| 7. |
- Fan, Ping, et al.
(författare)
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The influence of environmental factors on clinical pathological changes of patients with immunoglobulin A nephropathy from different areas of China
- 2018
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Ingår i: Renal failure. - 0886-022X. ; 40:1, s. 597-602
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- RESULTS: It was shown that the frequency of the patients with no mucosal infection in the urinary tract was higher in the Guangzhou group, while the frequencies of upper respiratory tract and biliary infections were lower when compared with those in the Xi'an group. Serum uric acid, alexin C3, creatinine and serum cholesterol concentrations were increased in the Guangzhou group, while triglyceride, glomerular filtration rate, and urine red blood cell count level decreased. IgA + IgM + C3 and IgA + IgG + IgM + C3 were found in most patients of the Xi'an group, whereas IgA + C3, IgA + IgM + C3 and IgA were more frequent in the Guangzhou group.CONCLUSION: It was found that differential environment, life habits and patterns in the two investigated areas obviously may influence the variable characteristics of IgAN patients.METHODS: Patients who were identified to have primary IgAN by renal biopsy diagnosis were recruited both from Shaanxi province hospital of traditional Chinese medicine and Guangdong province hospital of traditional Chinese medicine. Besides renal histopathology data, a number of clinical and laboratory data were collected.OBJECTIVES: The effects of regional characteristics of IgAN patients in different areas of China were investigated.
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| 8. |
- Fanourgakis, George S., et al.
(författare)
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Evaluation of global simulations of aerosol particle and cloud condensation nuclei number, with implications for cloud droplet formation
- 2019
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 19:13, s. 8591-8617
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A total of 16 global chemistry transport models and general circulation models have participated in this study; 14 models have been evaluated with regard to their ability to reproduce the near-surface observed number concentration of aerosol particles and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), as well as derived cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Model results for the period 2011-2015 are compared with aerosol measurements (aerosol particle number, CCN and aerosol particle composition in the submicron fraction) from nine surface stations located in Europe and Japan. The evaluation focuses on the ability of models to simulate the average across time state in diverse environments and on the seasonal and short-term variability in the aerosol properties. There is no single model that systematically performs best across all environments represented by the observations. Models tend to underestimate the observed aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations, with average normalized mean bias (NMB) of all models and for all stations, where data are available, of -24% and -35% for particles with dry diameters >50 and >120nm, as well as -36% and -34% for CCN at supersaturations of 0.2% and 1.0%, respectively. However, they seem to behave differently for particles activating at very low supersaturations (<0.1%) than at higher ones. A total of 15 models have been used to produce ensemble annual median distributions of relevant parameters. The model diversity (defined as the ratio of standard deviation to mean) is up to about 3 for simulated N3 (number concentration of particles with dry diameters larger than 3nm) and up to about 1 for simulated CCN in the extra-polar regions. A global mean reduction of a factor of about 2 is found in the model diversity for CCN at a supersaturation of 0.2% (CCN0.2) compared to that for N3, maximizing over regions where new particle formation is important. An additional model has been used to investigate potential causes of model diversity in CCN and bias compared to the observations by performing a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) accounting for uncertainties in 26 aerosol-related model input parameters. This PPE suggests that biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation and the hygroscopic properties of the organic material are likely to be the major sources of CCN uncertainty in summer, with dry deposition and cloud processing being dominant in winter. Models capture the relative amplitude of the seasonal variability of the aerosol particle number concentration for all studied particle sizes with available observations (dry diameters larger than 50, 80 and 120nm). The short-term persistence time (on the order of a few days) of CCN concentrations, which is a measure of aerosol dynamic behavior in the models, is underestimated on average by the models by 40% during winter and 20% in summer. In contrast to the large spread in simulated aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations, the CDNC derived from simulated CCN spectra is less diverse and in better agreement with CDNC estimates consistently derived from the observations (average NMB -13% and -22% for updraft velocities 0.3 and 0.6ms-1, respectively). In addition, simulated CDNC is in slightly better agreement with observationally derived values at lower than at higher updraft velocities (index of agreement 0.64 vs. 0.65). The reduced spread of CDNC compared to that of CCN is attributed to the sublinear response of CDNC to aerosol particle number variations and the negative correlation between the sensitivities of CDNC to aerosol particle number concentration (Nd=Na) and to updraft velocity (Nd=w). Overall, we find that while CCN is controlled by both aerosol particle number and composition, CDNC is sensitive to CCN at low and moderate CCN concentrations and to the updraft velocity when CCN levels are high. Discrepancies are found in sensitivities Nd=Na and Nd=w; models may be predisposed to be too "aerosol sensitive" or "aerosol insensitive" in aerosol-cloud-climate interaction studies, even if they may capture average droplet numbers well. This is a subtle but profound finding that only the sensitivities can clearly reveal and may explain intermodel biases on the aerosol indirect effect.
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| 9. |
- Jiang, Zhiwu, et al.
(författare)
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Combustion synthesis and mechanical properties of MoSi2-ZrB2-SiC ceramics
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of the Ceramic Society of Japan. - : Ceramic Society of Japan. - 1882-0743 .- 1348-6535. ; 126:7, s. 504-509
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- MoSi2ZrB2SiC ceramics were synthesized using Mo, Zr, Si and B4C powders by self-propagating high-temperature synthesis and densifying by spark plasma sintering. The effects of MoSi2 content on the combustion synthesis process, microstructure, and mechanical properties of the ceramics were investigated. The results showed that combustion synthesis is an unstable mode, spiral combustion. The Gibbs calculations and combustion temperature curves indicate there are two reactions occurring at the same time. The volume fraction of the four different phases and their relative densities were also measured and calculated. Compared to pure MoSi2, the 1.0MoSi20.2ZrB20.1SiC (M10) ceramic exhibits excellent mechanical properties with its maximum Vickers hardness and fracture toughness being 14.0 GPa and of 5.5 MPa m1/2, respectively. The hardness is in agreement with the rule of mixture. The morphology of indentation cracks reveals that the fracture toughness improves as a result of toughening mechanisms such as crack bridge, crack deflection, and microcracks.
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| 10. |
- Jiao, Xinyang, et al.
(författare)
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Microstructure Evolution and Pore Formation Mechanism of Porous TiAl3 Intermetallics via Reactive Sintering
- 2018
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Ingår i: Acta Metallurgica Sinica (English Letters). - : Springer. - 1006-7191 .- 2194-1289. ; 31:4, s. 440-448
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Porous TiAl3 intermetallics were fabricated through vacuum reactive sintering from Ti–75Al at.% elemental powder mixture. The phase compositions, expansion behaviors, pore characteristics and microstructure evolution of TiAl3 intermetallics were investigated, and the pore formation mechanism was also proposed. It was found that the actual temperature of compacts showed an acute climb from 668 to 1244 °C in 166s, while the furnace temperature maintained the linear growth of 5 °C/min, which indicated that an obvious thermal explosion (TE) reaction occurred during sintering, and only single-phase TiAl3 intermetallic was synthesized in TE products. The open porosity increased from 22.2 (green compact) to 32.8% after reactive diffusion sintering at 600 °C and rised to 58.7% after TE, then decreased to 51.2% after high-temperature homogenization at 1100 °C. Therefore, TE reaction is the dominated pore formation mechanism of porous TiAl3 intermetallics. The pore evolution in porous TiAl3 intermetallics occurred by the following mechanisms: certain intergranular pores remained among powder particles of green compact, then low-temperature sintering resulted in a further increase in porosity due to the Kirkendall effect. Moreover, TE reaction gave rise to a dramatic volume expansion because of the rapid increase in temperature, and high-temperature sintering caused densification and a slight shrinkage.
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