| 1. |
- Buitrago-Garcia, Diana, et al.
(författare)
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Occurrence and transmission potential of asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections : Update of a living systematic review and meta-analysis
- 2022
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Ingår i: PLoS Medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 19:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Debate about the level of asymptomatic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection continues. The amount of evidence is increasing and study designs have changed over time. We updated a living systematic review to address 3 questions: (1) Among people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2, what proportion does not experience symptoms at all during their infection? (2) What is the infectiousness of asymptomatic and presymptomatic, compared with symptomatic, SARS-CoV-2 infection? (3) What proportion of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a population is accounted for by people who are asymptomatic or presymptomatic?Methods and findings: The protocol was first published on 1 April 2020 and last updated on 18 June 2021. We searched PubMed, Embase, bioRxiv, and medRxiv, aggregated in a database of SARS-CoV-2 literature, most recently on 6 July 2021. Studies of people with PCR-diagnosed SARS-CoV-2, which documented symptom status at the beginning and end of follow-up, or mathematical modelling studies were included. Studies restricted to people already diagnosed, of single individuals or families, or without sufficient follow-up were excluded. One reviewer extracted data and a second verified the extraction, with disagreement resolved by discussion or a third reviewer. Risk of bias in empirical studies was assessed with a bespoke checklist and modelling studies with a published checklist. All data syntheses were done using random effects models. Review question (1): We included 130 studies. Heterogeneity was high so we did not estimate a mean proportion of asymptomatic infections overall (interquartile range (IQR) 14% to 50%, prediction interval 2% to 90%), or in 84 studies based on screening of defined populations (IQR 20% to 65%, prediction interval 4% to 94%). In 46 studies based on contact or outbreak investigations, the summary proportion asymptomatic was 19% (95% confidence interval (CI) 15% to 25%, prediction interval 2% to 70%). (2) The secondary attack rate in contacts of people with asymptomatic infection compared with symptomatic infection was 0.32 (95% CI 0.16 to 0.64, prediction interval 0.11 to 0.95, 8 studies). (3) In 13 modelling studies fit to data, the proportion of all SARS-CoV-2 transmission from presymptomatic individuals was higher than from asymptomatic individuals. Limitations of the evidence include high heterogeneity and high risks of selection and information bias in studies that were not designed to measure persistently asymptomatic infection, and limited information about variants of concern or in people who have been vaccinated.Conclusions: Based on studies published up to July 2021, most SARS-CoV-2 infections were not persistently asymptomatic, and asymptomatic infections were less infectious than symptomatic infections. Summary estimates from meta-analysis may be misleading when variability between studies is extreme and prediction intervals should be presented. Future studies should determine the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections caused by variants of concern and in people with immunity following vaccination or previous infection. Without prospective longitudinal studies with methods that minimise selection and measurement biases, further updates with the study types included in this living systematic review are unlikely to be able to provide a reliable summary estimate of the proportion of asymptomatic infections caused by SARS-CoV-2.
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| 2. |
- Iftekhar, Emil Nafis, et al.
(författare)
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A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe : an expert consultation
- 2021
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Ingår i: The Lancet Regional Health. - : Elsevier. - 2666-7762. ; 8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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| 3. |
- Ipekci, Aziz Mert, et al.
(författare)
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Outbreaks of publications about emerging infectious diseases: the case of SARS-CoV-2 and Zika virus
- 2021
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Ingår i: BMC Medical Research Methodology. - : BioMed Central. - 1471-2288. ; 21:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Outbreaks of infectious diseases generate outbreaks of scientific evidence. In 2016 epidemics of Zika virus emerged, and in 2020, a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We compared patterns of scientific publications for the two infections to analyse the evolution of the evidence. Methods: We annotated publications on Zika virus and SARS-CoV-2 that we collected using living evidence databases according to study design. We used descriptive statistics to categorise and compare study designs over time. Results: We found 2286 publications about Zika virus in 2016 and 21,990 about SARS-CoV-2 up to 24 May 2020, of which we analysed a random sample of 5294 (24%). For both infections, there were more epidemiological than laboratory science studies. Amongst epidemiological studies for both infections, case reports, case series and cross-sectional studies emerged first, cohort and case-control studies were published later. Trials were the last to emerge. The number of preprints was much higher for SARS-CoV-2 than for Zika virus. Conclusions: Similarities in the overall pattern of publications might be generalizable, whereas differences are compatible with differences in the characteristics of a disease. Understanding how evidence accumulates during disease outbreaks helps us understand which types of public health questions we can answer and when.
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| 4. |
- Machalek, Dorothy A., et al.
(författare)
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Prevalence of mutations associated with resistance to macrolides and fluoroquinolones in Mycoplasma genitalium : a systematic review and meta-analysis
- 2020
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Ingår i: The Lancet - Infectious diseases. - : Elsevier. - 1473-3099 .- 1474-4457. ; 20:11, s. 1302-1314
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Mycoplasma genitalium is now recognised as an important bacterial sexually transmitted infection. We summarised data from studies of mutations associated with macrolide and fluoroquinolone resistance in M genitalium to establish the prevalence of resistance. We also investigated temporal trends in resistance and aimed to establish the association between resistance and geographical location.METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Embase, and MEDLINE for studies that included data for the prevalence of mutations associated with macrolide and fluoroquinolone resistance in M genitalium published in any language up to Jan 7, 2019. We defined prevalence as the proportion of M genitalium samples positive for key mutations associated with azithromycin resistance (23S rRNA gene, position 2058 or 2059) or moxifloxacin resistance (S83R, S83I, D87N, or D87Y in parC), or both, among all M genitalium samples that were successfully characterised. We used random-effects meta-analyses to calculate summary estimates of prevalence. Subgroup and meta-regression analyses by WHO region and time period were done. This study was registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016050370.RESULTS: Overall, 59 studies from 21 countries met the inclusion criteria for our study: 57 studies of macrolide resistance (8966 samples), 25 of fluoroquinolone resistance (4003 samples), and 22 of dual resistance to macrolides and fluoroquinolones (3280 samples). The summary prevalence of mutations associated with macrolide resistance among M genitalium samples was 35·5% (95% CI 28·8-42·5); prevalence increased from 10·0% (95% CI 2·6-20·1%) before 2010, to 51·4% (40·3-62·4%) in 2016-17 (p<0·0001). Prevalence of mutations associated with macrolide resistance was significantly greater in samples in the WHO Western Pacific and Americas regions than in those from the WHO European region. The overall prevalence of mutations associated with fluoroquinolone resistance in M genitalium samples was 7·7% (95% CI 4·5-11·4%). Prevalence did not change significantly over time, but was significantly higher in the Western Pacific region than in the European region. Overall, the prevalence of both mutations associated with macrolide resistance and those associated with fluoroquinolone resistance among M genitalium samples was 2·8% (1·3-4·7%). The prevalence of dual resistance did not change significantly over time, and did not vary significantly by geographical region.INTERPRETATION: Global surveillance and measures to optimise the efficacy of treatments-including resistance-guided strategies, new antimicrobials, and antimicrobial combination approaches-are urgently needed to ensure cure in a high proportion of M genitalium infections and to prevent further spread of resistant strains.
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| 5. |
- Riou, Julien, et al.
(författare)
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Projecting the development of antimicrobial resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae from antimicrobial surveillance data : a mathematical modelling study
- 2023
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Ingår i: BMC Infectious Diseases. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1471-2334. ; 23:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends changing the first-line antimicrobial treatment for gonorrhoea when ≥ 5% of Neisseria gonorrhoeae cases fail treatment or are resistant. Susceptibility to ceftriaxone, the last remaining treatment option has been decreasing in many countries. We used antimicrobial resistance surveillance data and developed mathematical models to project the time to reach the 5% threshold for resistance to first-line antimicrobials used for N. gonorrhoeae.METHODS: We used data from the Gonococcal Resistance to Antimicrobials Surveillance Programme (GRASP) in England and Wales from 2000-2018 about minimum inhibitory concentrations (MIC) for ciprofloxacin, azithromycin, cefixime and ceftriaxone and antimicrobial treatment in two groups, heterosexual men and women (HMW) and men who have sex with men (MSM). We developed two susceptible-infected-susceptible models to fit these data and produce projections of the proportion of resistance until 2030. The single-step model represents the situation in which a single mutation results in antimicrobial resistance. In the multi-step model, the sequential accumulation of resistance mutations is reflected by changes in the MIC distribution.RESULTS: The single-step model described resistance to ciprofloxacin well. Both single-step and multi-step models could describe azithromycin and cefixime resistance, with projected resistance levels higher with the multi-step than the single step model. For ceftriaxone, with very few observed cases of full resistance, the multi-step model was needed to describe long-term dynamics of resistance. Extrapolating from the observed upward drift in MIC values, the multi-step model projected ≥ 5% resistance to ceftriaxone could be reached by 2030, based on treatment pressure alone. Ceftriaxone resistance was projected to rise to 13.2% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.7-44.8%) among HMW and 19.6% (95%CrI: 2.6-54.4%) among MSM by 2030.CONCLUSIONS: New first-line antimicrobials for gonorrhoea treatment are needed. In the meantime, public health authorities should strengthen surveillance for AMR in N. gonorrhoeae and implement strategies for continued antimicrobial stewardship. Our models show the utility of long-term representative surveillance of gonococcal antimicrobial susceptibility data and can be adapted for use in, and for comparison with, other countries.
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| 6. |
- Schweinsberg, Martin, et al.
(författare)
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Same data, different conclusions : Radical dispersion in empirical results when independent analysts operationalize and test the same hypothesis
- 2021
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Ingår i: Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. - : Elsevier BV. - 0749-5978 .- 1095-9920. ; 165, s. 228-249
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this crowdsourced initiative, independent analysts used the same dataset to test two hypotheses regarding the effects of scientists' gender and professional status on verbosity during group meetings. Not only the analytic approach but also the operationalizations of key variables were left unconstrained and up to individual analysts. For instance, analysts could choose to operationalize status as job title, institutional ranking, citation counts, or some combination. To maximize transparency regarding the process by which analytic choices are made, the analysts used a platform we developed called DataExplained to justify both preferred and rejected analytic paths in real time. Analyses lacking sufficient detail, reproducible code, or with statistical errors were excluded, resulting in 29 analyses in the final sample. Researchers reported radically different analyses and dispersed empirical outcomes, in a number of cases obtaining significant effects in opposite directions for the same research question. A Boba multiverse analysis demonstrates that decisions about how to operationalize variables explain variability in outcomes above and beyond statistical choices (e.g., covariates). Subjective researcher decisions play a critical role in driving the reported empirical results, underscoring the need for open data, systematic robustness checks, and transparency regarding both analytic paths taken and not taken. Implications for orga-nizations and leaders, whose decision making relies in part on scientific findings, consulting reports, and internal analyses by data scientists, are discussed.
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| 7. |
- Smid, Joost H., et al.
(författare)
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Rise and fall of the new variant of Chlamydia trachomatis in Sweden : mathematical modelling study
- 2020
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Ingår i: Sexually Transmitted Infections. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 1368-4973 .- 1472-3263. ; 96:5, s. 375-379
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: A new variant of Chlamydia trachomatis (nvCT) was discovered in Sweden in 2006. The nvCT has a plasmid deletion, which escaped detection by two nucleic acid amplification tests (Abbott-Roche, AR), which were used in 14 of 21 Swedish counties. The objectives of this study were to assess when and where nvCT emerged in Sweden, the proportion of nvCT in each county and the role of a potential fitness difference between nvCT and co-circulating wild-type strains (wtCT).METHODS: We used a compartmental mathematical model describing the spatial and temporal spread of nvCT and wtCT. We parameterised the model using sexual behaviour data and Swedish spatial and demographic data. We used Bayesian inference to fit the model to surveillance data about reported diagnoses of chlamydia infection in each county and data from four counties that assessed the proportion of nvCT in multiple years.RESULTS: Model results indicated that nvCT emerged in central Sweden (Dalarna, Gävleborg, Västernorrland), reaching a proportion of 1% of prevalent CT infections in late 2002 or early 2003. The diagnostic selective advantage enabled rapid spread of nvCT in the presence of high treatment rates. After detection, the proportion of nvCT decreased from 30%-70% in AR counties and 5%-20% in counties that Becton Dickinson tests, to around 5% in 2015 in all counties. The decrease in nvCT was consistent with an estimated fitness cost of around 5% in transmissibility or 17% reduction in infectious duration.CONCLUSIONS: We reconstructed the course of a natural experiment in which a mutant strain of C. trachomatis spread across Sweden. Our modelling study provides support, for the first time, of a reduced transmissibility or infectious duration of nvCT. This mathematical model improved our understanding of the first nvCT epidemic in Sweden and can be adapted to investigate the impact of future diagnostic escape mutants.
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| 8. |
- van Bergen, Jan E. A. M., et al.
(författare)
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Where to go to in chlamydia control? : From infection control towards infectious disease control
- 2021
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Ingår i: Sexually Transmitted Infections. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 1368-4973 .- 1472-3263. ; 97:7, s. 501-506
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives: The clinical and public health relevance of widespread case finding by testing for asymptomatic chlamydia infections is under debate. We wanted to explore future directions for chlamydia control and generate insights that might guide for evidence-based strategies. In particular, we wanted to know the extent to which we should pursue testing for asymptomatic infections at both genital and extragenital sites.Methods: We synthesised findings from published literature and from discussions among national and international chlamydia experts during an invitational workshop. We described changing perceptions in chlamydia control to inform the development of recommendations for future avenues for chlamydia control in the Netherlands.Results: Despite implementing a range of interventions to control chlamydia, there is no practice-based evidence that population prevalence can be reduced by screening programmes or widespread opportunistic testing. There is limited evidence about the beneficial effect of testing on pelvic inflammatory disease prevention. The risk of tubal factor infertility resulting from chlamydia infection is low and evidence on the preventable fraction remains uncertain. Overdiagnosis and overtreatment with antibiotics for self-limiting and non-viable infections have contributed to antimicrobial resistance in other pathogens and may affect oral, anal and genital microbiota. These changing insights could affect the outcome of previous cost-effectiveness analysis.Conclusion: The balance between benefits and harms of widespread testing to detect asymptomatic chlamydia infections is changing. The opinion of our expert group deviates from the existing paradigm of 'test and treat' and suggests that future strategies should reduce, rather than expand, the role of widespread testing for asymptomatic chlamydia infections.
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