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- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 2. |
- Kuhle, J., et al.
(författare)
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Conversion from clinically isolated syndrome to multiple sclerosis: A large multicentre study
- 2015
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Ingår i: Multiple Sclerosis Journal. - : SAGE Publications. - 1352-4585 .- 1477-0970. ; 21:8, s. 1013-1024
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background and objective: We explored which clinical and biochemical variables predict conversion from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) in a large international cohort. Methods: Thirty-three centres provided serum samples from 1047 CIS cases with at least two years' follow-up. Age, sex, clinical presentation, T2-hyperintense lesions, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) oligoclonal bands (OCBs), CSF IgG index, CSF cell count, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25-OH-D), cotinine and IgG titres against Epstein-Barr nuclear antigen 1 (EBNA-1) and cytomegalovirus were tested for association with risk of CDMS. Results: At median follow-up of 4.31 years, 623 CIS cases converted to CDMS. Predictors of conversion in multivariable analyses were OCB (HR = 2.18, 95% CI = 1.71-2.77, p < 0.001), number of T2 lesions (two to nine lesions vs 0/1 lesions: HR = 1.97, 95% CI = 1.52-2.55, p < 0.001; >9 lesions vs 0/1 lesions: HR = 2.74, 95% CI = 2.04-3.68, p < 0.001) and age at CIS (HR per year inversely increase = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.98-0.99, p < 0.001). Lower 25-OH-D levels were associated with CDMS in univariable analysis, but this was attenuated in the multivariable model. OCB positivity was associated with higher EBNA-1 IgG titres. Conclusions: We validated MRI lesion load, OCB and age at CIS as the strongest independent predictors of conversion to CDMS in this multicentre setting. A role for vitamin D is suggested but requires further investigation.
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| 4. |
- Wang, Y., et al.
(författare)
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Evaluation of liquid from the Papanicolaou test and other liquid biopsies for the detection of endometrial and ovarian cancers
- 2018
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Ingår i: Science Translational Medicine. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 1946-6234 .- 1946-6242. ; 10:433, s. 1-9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report the detection of endometrial and ovarian cancers based on genetic analyses of DNA recovered from the fluids obtained during a routine Papanicolaou (Pap) test. The new test, called PapSEEK, incorporates assays for mutations in 18 genes as well as an assay for aneuploidy. In Pap brush samples from 382 endometrial cancer patients, 81% [95% confidence interval (CI), 77 to 85%] were positive, including 78% of patients with early-stage disease. The sensitivity in 245 ovarian cancer patients was 33% (95% CI, 27 to 39%), including 34% of patients with early-stage disease. In contrast, only 1.4% of 714 women without cancer had positive Pap brush samples (specificity, ~99%). Next, we showed that intrauterine sampling with a Tao brush increased the detection of malignancy over endocervical sampling with a Pap brush: 93% of 123 (95% CI, 87 to 97%) patients with endometrial cancer and 45% of 51 (95% CI, 31 to 60%) patients with ovarian cancer were positive, whereas none of the samples from 125 women without cancer were positive (specificity, 100%). Finally, in 83 ovarian cancer patients in whom plasma was available, circulating tumor DNA was found in 43% of patients (95% CI, 33 to 55%). When plasma and Pap brush samples were both tested, the sensitivity for ovarian cancer increased to 63% (95% CI, 51 to 73%). These results demonstrate the potential of mutation-based diagnostics to detect gynecologic cancers at a stage when they are more likely to be curable.
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| 8. |
- Demirbüker, S. Safer, et al.
(författare)
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A Swedish nationwide pharmaco-epidemiological and genetic study of the long-term safety and effectiveness of dimethyl fumarate (IMSE 5)
- 2018
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Ingår i: Multiple Sclerosis Journal. - : Sage Publications. - 1352-4585 .- 1477-0970. ; 24:Suppl. 2, s. 701-702
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Background: Dimethyl fumarate (DMF) is an oral therapy for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), which has been included in the Swedish post-market surveillance study “Immunomodulation and Multiple Sclerosis Epidemiology 5” (IMSE 5) in order to monitor and determine the long-term safety and effectiveness in a real-world setting.Objectives: To follow-up the long-term safety and effectiveness of DMF in a real-world setting.Methods: MS patients are registered into the nationwide Swedish Neuro Registry (NeuroReg) in Sweden. The IMSE 5 study obtains descriptive data of adverse events (AEs), Extended Disability Status Scale (EDSS), Multiple Sclerosis Severity Scale (MSSS), Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT), Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale (MSIS-29), European Quality of Life - Five Dimensions Test (EQ-5D) and Visual Analog Scale (VAS) from NeuroReg. Drug survival was measured using the Kaplan-Meier curve and effectiveness measures were assessed using the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test.Results: 2010 DMF-treated patients have been included in the IMSE 5 study between March 2014 and April 2018. 73 % were female and the mean age at treatment start was 40.6 years. The mean treatment duration was 22.3 months. 92 % of the patients had RRMS with 2 % missing data on MS phenotype. Most patients switched from interferon and glaimer acetat (41 %) and 24 % of the patients were treatment naïve (13 % were missing data on prior treatment). The overall one year drug survival was 74 % and 889 patients terminated their treatment at some point. Most patients (39 %) switched to rituximab (15 % have no new treatment registered). The most common reason for discontinuation was AEs (53 %) and lack of effect (29 %). 227 (11 %) patients have continued treatment for ≥36 months. In patients treated with DMF continuously for ≥24 months (n=918), significant improvements in mean values at 24 months of treatment compared to mean baseline values have been noted for EDSS (1.9 ± 1.6 to 1.6 ± 1.6, n=196); MSSS (2.5 ± 2.4 to 2.0 ± 2.0, n=145); SDMT (52.6 ± 11.0 to 53.8 ± 11.7, n=315); MSIS-29 Psychological Subscale (26.3 ± 22.8 to 21.8 ± 20.6, n=337); and EQ-5D (0.76 ± 0.23 to 0.81 ± 0.20, n=284).Conclusions: NeuroReg proves to function well as a post-marketing drug surveillance platform, providing data regarding drug effectiveness and AEs. A longer follow-up period is needed to assess the real-world effectiveness and safety of DMF.
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| 9. |
- Demirbüker, S. Safer, et al.
(författare)
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A Swedish nationwide pharmaco-epidemiological study of the long-term safety and effectiveness of teriflunomid (IMSE 4)
- 2018
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Ingår i: Multiple Sclerosis Journal. - : Sage Publications. - 1352-4585 .- 1477-0970. ; 24:Suppl. 2, s. 922-923
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Background: Teriflunomid (TFM) is an oral therapy for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), which has been included in the Swedish post-market surveillance study “Immunomodulation and Multiple Sclerosis Epidemiology 4” (IMSE 4) in order to surveille and determine the long-term safety and effectiveness in a real-world setting.Objectives: To follow-up the long-term safety and effectiveness of TFM in a real-world setting.Methods: MS patients are registered into the nationwide Swedish Neuro Registry (NeuroReg) in Sweden. The IMSE 4 study obtains descriptive data of adverse events (AEs), Extended Disability Status Scale (EDSS), Multiple Sclerosis Severity Scale (MSSS), Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT), Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale (MSIS-29), European Quality of Life - Five Dimensions Test (EQ-5D) and Visual Analog Scale (VAS) from NeuroReg. Drug survival was measured using the Kaplan-Meier curve.Results: 481 TFM-treated patients have been included in the IMSE 4 study between March 2014 and April 2018. 70 % were female and the mean age at treatment start was 45.8 years. The mean treatment duration was 20.5 months. 89 % of the patients had RRMS with 3 % missing data on MS phenotype. Most patients switched from interferon and glatimer acetat (37 %) and 14 % of the patients were treatment naïve before starting TFM. The overall one year drug survival rate was 81 % and the overall two year drug survival rate was 41 %. 168 (35 %) patients terminated their treatment at some point, of which 33 % started rituximab treatment and 22 % have no new treatment registered. The most common reasons for discontinuation were AEs (49 %) and lack of effect (40 %). 318 patients have been continuously treated with TFM for ≥12 months and mean baseline values compared to val-ues at 12 months have been noted for EDSS (2.0 ± 1.5 to 2.2 ± 1.5, n=141); MSSS (2.6 ± 2.2 to 2.9 ± 2.3, n=126); SDMT (50.8 ± 10.5 to 50.8 ± 10.7, n=165); MSIS-29 Physiological subscale (20.2 ± 19.3 to 19.7 ± 20.0, n=181); MSIS-29 Psychological subscale (28.1 ± 22.2 to 23.7 ± 21.7, n=181); EQ-5D (0.74 ± 0.24 to 0.73 ± 0.26, n=154); and VAS (70.0 ± 20.8 to 70.8 ± 19.6, n=150).Conclusions: NeuroReg proves to function well as a post-marketing drug surveillance platform, providing data regarding drug effectiveness and AEs. However, a longer follow-up period is needed to assess the real-world effectiveness and safety of TMF.
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