| 1. |
- Blenckner, Thorsten, et al.
(författare)
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The Risk for Novel and Disappearing Environmental Conditions in the Baltic Sea
- 2021
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Marine Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-7745. ; 8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Future climate biogeochemical projections indicate large changes in the ocean with environmental conditions not experienced at present referred to as novel, or may even disappear. These climate-induced changes will most likely affect species distribution via changes in growth, behavior, evolution, dispersal, and species interactions. However, the future risk of novel and disappearing environmental conditions in the ocean is poorly understood, in particular for compound effects of climate and nutrient management changes. We map the compound risk of the occurrence of future novel and disappearing environmental conditions, analyze the outcome of climate and nutrient management scenarios for the world’s largest estuary, the Baltic Sea, and the potential consequences for three charismatic species. Overall, the future projections show, as expected, an increase in environmental novelty over time. The future nutrient reduction management that improves the eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea contributes to large novel and disappearing conditions. We show the consequences of novel and disappearing environmental conditions for fundamental niches of three charismatic species under different scenarios. This first step toward comprehensively analyzing environmental novelty and disappearing conditions for a marine system illustrates the urgent need to include novelty and disappearing projection outputs in Earth System Models. Our results further illustrate that adaptive management is needed to account for the emergence of novelty related to the interplay of multiple drivers. Overall, our analysis provides strong support for the expectation of novel ecological communities in marine systems, which may affect ecosystem services, and needs to be accounted for in sustainable future management plans of our oceans.
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| 2. |
- Dessirier, Benoît, 1987-, et al.
(författare)
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A century of nitrogen dynamics in agricultural watersheds of Denmark
- 2023
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - 1748-9326. ; 18:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Intensive agriculture has been linked to increased nitrogen loads and adverse effects on downstream aquatic ecosystems. Sustained large net nitrogen surpluses have been shown in several contexts to form legacies in soil or waters, which delay the effects of reduction measures. In this study, detailed land use and agricultural statistics were used to reconstruct the annual nitrogen surpluses in three agriculture-dominated watersheds of Denmark (600-2700 km2) with well-drained loamy soils. These surpluses and long-term hydrological records were used as inputs to the process model ELEMeNT to quantify the nitrogen stores and fluxes for 1920-2020. A multi-objective calibration using timeseries of river nitrate loads, as well as other non-conventional data sources, allowed to explore the potential of these different data to constrain the nitrogen cycling model. We found the flux-weighted nitrate concentrations in the root zone percolate below croplands, a dataset not commonly used in calibrating watershed models, to be critical in reducing parameter uncertainty. Groundwater nitrate legacies built up in all three studied watersheds during 1950-1990 corresponding to & SIM;2% of the surplus (or & SIM;1 kg N ha yr-1) before they went down at a similar rate during 1990-2015. Over the same periods active soil nitrogen legacies first accumulated by approximately 10% of the surplus (& SIM;5 kg N ha yr-1), before undergoing a commensurate reduction. Both legacies appear to have been the drivers of hysteresis in the diffuse load at the catchments' outlet and hindrances to reaching water quality goals. Results indicate that the low cropland surpluses enforced during 2008-2015 had a larger impact on the diffuse river loads than the European Union's untargeted grass set-aside policy of 1993-2008. Collectively, the measures of 1990-2015 are estimated to have reset the diffuse load regimes of the watersheds back to the situation prevailing in the 1960s.
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| 3. |
- Friedland, René, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of Nutrient Management Scenarios on Marine Eutrophication Indicators : A Pan-European, Multi-Model Assessment in Support of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive
- 2021
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Marine Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-7745. ; 8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A novel pan-European marine model ensemble was established, covering nearly all seas under the regulation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), with the aim of providing a consistent assessment of the potential impacts of riverine nutrient reduction scenarios on marine eutrophication indicators. For each sea region, up to five coupled biogeochemical models from institutes all over Europe were brought together for the first time. All model systems followed a harmonised scenario approach and ran two simulations, which varied only in the riverine nutrient inputs. The load reductions were evaluated with the catchment model GREEN and represented the impacts due to improved management of agriculture and wastewater treatment in all European river systems. The model ensemble, comprising 15 members, was used to assess changes to the core eutrophication indicators as defined within MSFD Descriptor 5. In nearly all marine regions, riverine load reductions led to reduced nutrient concentrations in the marine environment. However, regionally the nutrient input reductions led to an increase in the non-limiting nutrient in the water, especially in the case of phosphate concentrations in the Black Sea. Further core eutrophication indicators, such as chlorophyll-a, bottom oxygen and the Trophic Index TRIX, improved nearly everywhere, but the changes were less pronounced than for the inorganic nutrients. The model ensemble displayed strong consistency and robustness, as most if not all models indicated improvements in the same areas. There were substantial differences between the individual seas in the speed of response to the reduced nutrient loads. In the North Sea ensemble, a stable plateau was reached after only three years, while the simulation period of eight years was too short to obtain steady model results in the Baltic Sea. The ensemble exercise confirmed the importance of improved management of agriculture and wastewater treatments in the river catchments to reduce marine eutrophication. Several shortcomings were identified, the outcome of different approaches to compute the mean change was estimated and potential improvements are discussed to enhance policy support. Applying a model ensemble enabled us to obtain highly robust and consistent model results, substantially decreasing uncertainties in the scenario outcome. ABSTRACT A novel pan-European marine model ensemble was established, covering nearly all seas under the regulation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), with the aim of providing a consistent assessment of the potential impacts of riverine nutrient reduction scenarios on marine eutrophication indicators. For each sea region, up to five coupled biogeochemical models from institutes all over Europe were brought together for the first time. All model systems followed a harmonised scenario approach and ran two simulations, which varied only in the riverine nutrient inputs. The load reductions were evaluated with the catchment model GREEN and represented the impacts due to improved management of agriculture and wastewater treatment in all European river
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| 4. |
- Hagström, Åke, et al.
(författare)
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Composition and Seasonality of Membrane Transporters in Marine Picoplankton
- 2021
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Microbiology. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 1664-302X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study, we examined transporter genes in metagenomic and metatranscriptomic data from a time-series survey in the temperate marine environment of the Baltic Sea. We analyzed the abundance and taxonomic distribution of transporters in the 3 mu m-0.2 mu m size fraction comprising prokaryotes and some picoeukaryotes. The presence of specific transporter traits was shown to be guiding the succession of these microorganisms. A limited number of taxa were associated with the dominant transporter proteins that were identified for the nine key substrate categories for microbial growth. Throughout the year, the microbial taxa at the level of order showed highly similar patterns in terms of transporter traits. The distribution of transporters stayed the same, irrespective of the abundance of each taxon. This would suggest that the distribution pattern of transporters depends on the bacterial groups being dominant at a given time of the year. Also, we find notable numbers of secretion proteins that may allow marine bacteria to infect and kill prey organisms thus releasing nutrients. Finally, we demonstrate that transporter proteins may provide clues to the relative importance of biogeochemical processes, and we suggest that virtual transporter functionalities may become important components in future population dynamics models.
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| 5. |
- Kuliński, Karol, et al.
(författare)
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Biogeochemical functioning of the Baltic Sea
- 2022
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Ingår i: Earth System Dynamics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 13, s. 633-685
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Location, specific topography, and hydrographic setting together with climate change and strong anthropogenic pressure are the main factors shaping the biogeochemical functioning and thus also the ecological status of the Baltic Sea. The recent decades have brought significant changes in the Baltic Sea. First, the rising nutrient loads from land in the second half of the 20th century led to eutrophication and spreading of hypoxic and anoxic areas, for which permanent stratification of the water column and limited ventilation of deep-water layers made favourable conditions. Since the 1980s the nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea have been continuously decreasing. This, however, has so far not resulted in significant improvements in oxygen availability in the deep regions, which has revealed a slow response time of the system to the reduction of the land-derived nutrient loads. Responsible for that is the low burial efficiency of phosphorus at anoxic conditions and its remobilization from sediments when conditions change from oxic to anoxic. This results in a stoichiometric excess of phosphorus available for organic-matter production, which promotes the growth of N2-fixing cyanobacteria and in turn supports eutrophication. This assessment reviews the available and published knowledge on the biogeochemical functioning of the Baltic Sea. In its content, the paper covers the aspects related to changes in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus (C, N, and P) external loads, their transformations in the coastal zone, changes in organic-matter production (eutrophication) and remineralization (oxygen availability), and the role of sediments in burial and turnover of C, N, and P. In addition to that, this paper focuses also on changes in the marine CO2 system, the structure and functioning of the microbial community, and the role of contaminants for biogeochemical processes. This comprehensive assessment allowed also for identifying knowledge gaps and future research needs in the field of marine biogeochemistry in the Baltic Sea. Copyright:
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| 6. |
- Müller-Karulis, Bärbel, 1949-, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of the new UWWTD onnutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea
- 2024
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The tightening of the removal requirements in the new Urban Wastewater Treatment Directive is unlikely to have a decisive effect on the nutrient inputs, since most wastewater treatment in the total Baltic Sea drainage basin has improved to the proposed requirements in recent decades. The actions on stormwater overflows and urban runoff could, however, be of importance. Further reductions on nutrient inputs from wastewater could be achieved through measures beyond the directive, such as regulations on private sewages in scattered dwellings and mandatory tertiary treatment of both nitrogen and phosphorus in the whole drainage basin.
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| 7. |
- Otto, Saskia A., et al.
(författare)
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Life Cycle Dynamics of a Key Marine Species Under Multiple Stressors
- 2020
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Marine Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-7745. ; 7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Identifying key indicator species, their life cycle dynamics and the multiple driving forces they are affected by is an important step in ecosystem-based management. Similarly important is understanding how environmental changes and trophic interactions shape future trajectories of key species with potential implications for ecosystem state and service provision. We here present a statistical modeling framework to assess and quantify cumulative effects on the long-term dynamics of the copepod Pseudocalanus acuspes, a key species in the Baltic Sea. Our model integrates linear and non-linear responses to changes in life stage density, climate and predation pressure as well as stochastic processes. We use the integrated life cycle model to simulate copepod dynamics under a combination of stressor scenarios and to identify conditions under which population responses are potentially mitigated or magnified. Our novel modeling approach reliably captures the historical P. acuspes population dynamics and allows us to identify females in spring and younger copepodites in summer as stages most sensitive to direct and indirect effects of the main environmental stressors, salinity and temperature. Our model simulations furthermore demonstrate that population responses to stressors are dampened through density effects. Multiple stressor interactions were mostly additive except when acting on the same life stage. Here, negative synergistic and positive dampening effects lead to a lower total population size than expected under additive interactions. As a consequence, we found that a favorable increase of oxygen and phosphate conditions together with a reduction in predation pressure by 50% each could counteract the negative effect of a 25% decrease in salinity by only 6%. Ultimately, our simulations suggest that P. acuspes will most certainly decline under a potential freshening of the Baltic Sea and increasing temperatures, which is conditional on the extent of the assumed climate change. Also the planned nutrient reduction strategy and fishery management plan will not necessarily benefit the temporal development of P. acuspes. Moving forward, there is a growing opportunity for using population modeling in cumulative effects assessments. Our modeling framework can help here as simple tool for species with a discrete life cycle to explore stressor interactions and the safe operating space under future climate change.
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| 8. |
- Piroddi, Chiara, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of Nutrient Management Scenarios on Marine Food Webs : A Pan-European Assessment in Support of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive
- 2021
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Marine Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-7745. ; 8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Eutrophication is one of the most important anthropogenic pressures impacting coastal seas. In Europe, several legislations and management measures have been implemented to halt nutrient overloading in marine ecosystems. This study evaluates the impact of freshwater nutrient control measures on higher trophic levels (HTL) in European marine ecosystems following descriptors and criteria as defined by the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). We used a novel pan-European marine modeling ensemble of fourteen HTL models, covering almost all the EU seas, under two nutrient management scenarios. Results from our projections suggest that the proposed nutrient reduction measures may not have a significant impact on the structure and function of European marine ecosystems. Among the assessed criteria, the spawning stock biomass of commercially important fish stocks and the biomass of small pelagic fishes would be the most impacted, albeit with values lower than 2.5%. For the other criteria/indicators, such as species diversity and trophic level indicators, the impact was lower. The Black Sea and the North-East Atlantic were the most negatively impacted regions, while the Baltic Sea was the only region showing signs of improvement. Coastal and shelf areas were more sensitive to environmental changes than large regional and sub-regional ecosystems that also include open seas. This is the first pan-European multi-model comparison study used to assess the impacts of land-based measures on marine and coastal European ecosystems through a set of selected ecological indicators. Since anthropogenic pressures are expanding apace in the marine environment and policy makers need to use rapid and effective policy measures for fast-changing environments, this modeling framework is an essential asset in supporting and guiding EU policy needs and decisions.
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| 9. |
- Tomczak, Maciej T., et al.
(författare)
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Reference state, structure, regime shifts, and regulatory drivers in a coastal sea over the last century : The Central Baltic Sea case
- 2022
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Ingår i: Limnology and Oceanography. - : Wiley. - 0024-3590 .- 1939-5590. ; 67:S1, s. S266-S284
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The occurrence of regime shifts in marine ecosystems has important implications for environmental legislation that requires setting reference levels and targets of quantitative restoration outcomes. The Baltic Sea ecosystem has undergone large changes in the 20(th) century related to anthropogenic pressures and climate variability, which have caused ecosystem reorganization. Here, we compiled historical information and identified relationships in our dataset using multivariate statistics and modeling across 31 biotic and abiotic variables from 1925 to 2005 in the Central Baltic Sea. We identified a series of ecosystem regime shifts in the 1930s, 1970s, and at the end of the 1980s/beginning of the 1990s. In the long term, the Central Baltic Sea showed a regime shift from a benthic to pelagic-dominated state. Historically, benthic components played a significant role in trophic transfer, while in the more recent productive system pelagic-benthic coupling was weak and pelagic components dominated. Our analysis shows that for the entire time period, productivity, climate, and hydrography mainly affected the functioning of the food web, whereas fishing became important more recently. Eutrophication had far-reaching direct and indirect impacts from a long-term perspective and changed not only the trophic state of the system but also affected higher trophic levels. Our study also suggests a switch in regulatory drivers from salinity to oxygen. The reference ecosystem identified in our analysis may guide the establishment of an ecosystem state baseline and threshold values for ecosystem state indicators of the Central Baltic Sea.
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| 10. |
- Uusitalo, Laura, et al.
(författare)
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Integrating diverse model results into decision support for good environmental status and blue growth
- 2022
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 806
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sustainable environmental management needs to consider multiple ecological and societal objectives simultaneously while accounting for the many uncertainties arising from natural variability, insufficient knowledge about the system's behaviour leading to diverging model projections, and changing ecosystem. In this paper we demonstrate how a Bayesian network-based decision support model can be used to summarize a large body of research and model projections about potential management alternatives and climate scenarios for the Baltic Sea. We demonstrate how this type of a model can act as an emulator and ensemble, integrating disciplines such as climatology, biogeochemistry, marine and fisheries ecology as well as economics. Further, Bayesian network models include and present the uncertainty related to the predictions, allowing evaluation of the uncertainties, precautionary management, and the explicit consideration of acceptable risk levels. The Baltic Sea example also shows that the two biogeochemical models frequently used in future projections give considerably different predictions. Further, inclusion of parameter uncertainty of the food web model increased uncertainty in the outcomes and reduced the predicted manageability of the system. The model allows simultaneous evaluation of environmental and economic goals, while illustrating the uncertainty of predictions, providing a more holistic view of the management problem.
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