| 1. |
- Guégan, Marion, et al.
(författare)
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Climate warming effects on hydropower demand and pricing in California
- 2011
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Ingår i: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2011 : Bearing Knowledge for Sustainability - Proceedings of the 2011 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress - Bearing Knowledge for Sustainability - Proceedings of the 2011 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress. - Reston, VA : American Society of Civil Engineers. - 9780784411735 ; , s. 1298-1307
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- High-elevation hydropower units in California might be sensitive to climate warming since they have been designed to take advantage of snowmelt and have low built-in storage capacities. Snowmelt is expected to shift to earlier in the year and the system might not be able to store sufficient water for release in high-electricity-demanding periods. Previous studies have tried to explore the climate warming effects on California's high-elevation hydropower system by focusing on the supply side only (exploring the effects of hydrological changes on generation and revenues). This study extends the previous work by also considering climate warming effects on hydropower demand and pricing. A long-term price forecasting tool is developed using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models. California's Energy-Based Hydropower Optimization Model (EBHOM) is then applied to estimate the adaptability of California's high-elevation hydropower system to climate warming considering simultaneous changes in supply, demand and pricing. The model is run for dry and wet warming scenarios, representing a range of hydrological changes under climate change.
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| 2. |
- Guegan, Marion, et al.
(författare)
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Developing a module for estimating climate warming effects on hydropower pricing in California
- 2012
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 1873-6777 .- 0301-4215. ; 42, s. 261-271
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate warming is expected to alter hydropower generation in California through affecting the annual stream-flow regimes and reducing snowpack. On the other hand, increased temperatures are expected to increase hydropower demand for cooling in warm periods while decreasing demand for heating in winter, subsequently altering the annual hydropower pricing patterns. The resulting variations in hydropower supply and pricing regimes necessitate changes in reservoir operations to minimize the revenue losses from climate warming. Previous studies in California have only explored the effects of hydrological changes on hydropower generation and revenues. This study builds a long-term hydropower pricing estimation tool, based on artificial neural network (ANN), to develop pricing scenarios under different climate warming scenarios. Results suggest higher average hydropower prices under climate warming scenarios than under historical climate. The developed tool is integrated with California's Energy-Based Hydropower Optimization Model (EBHOM) to facilitate simultaneous consideration of climate warming on hydropower supply, demand and pricing. EBHOM estimates an additional 5% drop in annual revenues under a dry warming scenario when climate change impacts on pricing are considered, with respect to when such effects are ignored, underlining the importance of considering changes in hydropower demand and pricing in future studies and policy making. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 3. |
- Hjorth, Peder, et al.
(författare)
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Systems Analysis to Promote Frames and Mental Models for Sustainable Water Management
- 2013
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Ingår i: Sciforum Electronic Conference Series. - Basel, Switzerland : MDPI. ; 3
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the water sector, there have been numerous failures in projects aiming at sustainable development and there have been some, but less numerous, examples of successes. However, the most striking observation is the near universal failure to learn from these examples. Somehow, scientists and decision makers have allowed the indications of new approaches and opportunities go undetected because they did not fit with their mindsets or perceptual apparatus. This paper discusses some of the mental frames that have hampered the progress towards sustainable development. It analyzes where these frames come from, who is promoting or defending them, and what can be done to change these frames in ways that are more in line with the basic tenets of sustainable development. It is found that there is a lack of consistency in the interpretation of sustainable development. Most sustainability initiatives have failed because the environment and development were never properly brought together. The “environment” is where we live: and “development” is what we all do in attempting to improve our lot within that abode. The two are unseparable (Our Common Future). Thus, there is a need to draw on diverse disciplinary perspectives and to cut across sectoral boundaries to counter the monovalent approaches that have dominated mainstream enquiry and practice. To that end, systems analysis can help produce enabling frameworks for process changes. These frameworks should define general objectives and means of verification of progress without specifying uniform approaches and activities. Systems analysis is also a methodology helping to make sure that problems posed are adequately defined and that helps detecting biases in goal formulation stemming either from dominant actors or from “solution oriented approaches”.
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| 4. |
- Madani, Kaveh, et al.
(författare)
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Climate change impacts on high-elevation hydroelectricity in California
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694. ; 510, s. 153-163
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- While only about 30% of California's usable water storage capacity lies at higher elevations, high-elevation (above 300 m) hydropower units generate, on average, 74% of California's in-state hydroelectricity. In general, high-elevation plants have small man-made reservoirs and rely mainly on snowpack. Their low built-in storage capacity is a concern with regard to climate warming. Snowmelt is expected to shift to earlier in the year, and the system may not be able to store sufficient water for release in high-demand periods. Previous studies have explored the climate warming effects on California's high-elevation hydropower by focusing on the supply side (exploring the effects of hydrological changes on generation and revenues) ignoring the warming effects on hydroelectricity demand and pricing. This study extends the previous work by simultaneous consideration of climate change effects on high-elevation hydropower supply and pricing in California. The California's Energy-Based Hydropower Optimization Model (EBHOM 2.0) is applied to evaluate the adaptability of California's high-elevation hydropower system to climate warming, considering the warming effects on hydroelectricity supply and pricing. The model's results relative to energy generation, energy spills, reservoir energy storage, and average shadow prices of energy generation and storage capacity expansion are examined and discussed. These results are compared with previous studies to emphasize the need to consider climate change effects on hydroelectricity demand and pricing when exploring the effects of climate change on hydropower operations. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Mirchi, Ali, et al.
(författare)
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Water resources management in a homogenizing world: Averting the Growth and Underinvestment trajectory
- 2014
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Ingår i: Water Resources Research. - 0043-1397. ; 50:9, s. 7515-7526
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Biotic homogenization, a de facto symptom of a global biodiversity crisis, underscores the urgency of reforming water resources management to focus on the health and viability of ecosystems. Global population and economic growth, coupled with inadequate investment in maintenance of ecological systems, threaten to degrade environmental integrity and ecosystem services that support the global socioeconomic system, indicative of a system governed by the Growth and Underinvestment (G&U) archetype. Water resources management is linked to biotic homogenization and degradation of system integrity through alteration of water systems, ecosystem dynamics, and composition of the biota. Consistent with the G&U archetype, water resources planning primarily treats ecological considerations as exogenous constraints rather than integral, dynamic, and responsive parts of the system. It is essential that the ecological considerations be made objectives of water resources development plans to facilitate the analysis of feedbacks and potential trade-offs between socioeconomic gains and ecological losses. We call for expediting a shift to ecosystem-based management of water resources, which requires a better understanding of the dynamics and links between water resources management actions, ecological side-effects, and associated long-term ramifications for sustainability. To address existing knowledge gaps, models that include dynamics and estimated thresholds for regime shifts or ecosystem degradation need to be developed. Policy levers for implementation of ecosystem-based water resources management include shifting away from growth-oriented supply management, better demand management, increased public awareness, and institutional reform that promotes adaptive and transdisciplinary management approaches.
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