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- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
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| 2. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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| 3. |
- Waszak, S. M., et al.
(författare)
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Spectrum and prevalence of genetic predisposition in medulloblastoma: a retrospective genetic study and prospective validation in a clinical trial cohort
- 2018
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Ingår i: Lancet Oncology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1470-2045. ; 19:6, s. 785-798
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Medulloblastoma is associated with rare hereditary cancer predisposition syndromes; however, consensus medulloblastoma predisposition genes have not been defined and screening guidelines for genetic counselling and testing for paediatric patients are not available. We aimed to assess and define these genes to provide evidence for future screening guidelines. Methods In this international, multicentre study, we analysed patients with medulloblastoma from retrospective cohorts (International Cancer Genome Consortium [ICGC] PedBrain, Medulloblastoma Advanced Genomics International Consortium [MAGIC], and the CEFALO series) and from prospective cohorts from four clinical studies (SJMB03, SJMB12, SJYC07, and I-HIT-MED). Whole-genome sequences and exome sequences from blood and tumour samples were analysed for rare damaging germline mutations in cancer predisposition genes. DNA methylation profiling was done to determine consensus molecular subgroups: WNT (MBWNT), SHH (MBSHH), group 3 (MBGroup3), and group 4 (MBGroup4). Medulloblastoma predisposition genes were predicted on the basis of rare variant burden tests against controls without a cancer diagnosis from the Exome Aggregation Consortium (ExAC). Previously defined somatic mutational signatures were used to further classify medulloblastoma genomes into two groups, a clock-like group (signatures 1 and 5) and a homologous recombination repair deficiency-like group (signatures 3 and 8), and chromothripsis was investigated using previously established criteria. Progression-free survival and overall survival were modelled for patients with a genetic predisposition to medulloblastoma. Findings We included a total of 1022 patients with medulloblastoma from the retrospective cohorts (n=673) and the four prospective studies (n=349), from whom blood samples (n=1022) and tumour samples (n=800) were analysed for germline mutations in 110 cancer predisposition genes. In our rare variant burden analysis, we compared these against 53 105 sequenced controls from ExAC and identified APC, BRCA2, PALB2, PTCH1, SUFU, and TP53 as consensus medulloblastoma predisposition genes according to our rare variant burden analysis and estimated that germline mutations accounted for 6% of medulloblastoma diagnoses in the retrospective cohort. The prevalence of genetic predispositions differed between molecular subgroups in the retrospective cohort and was highest for patients in the MBSHH subgroup (20% in the retrospective cohort). These estimates were replicated in the prospective clinical cohort (germline mutations accounted for 5% of medulloblastoma diagnoses, with the highest prevalence [14%] in the MBSHH subgroup). Patients with germline APC mutations developed MBWNT and accounted for most (five [71%] of seven) cases of MBWNT that had no somatic CTNNB1 exon 3 mutations. Patients with germline mutations in SUFU and PTCH1 mostly developed infant MBSHH. Germline TP53 mutations presented only in childhood patients in the MBSHH subgroup and explained more than half (eight [57%] of 14) of all chromothripsis events in this subgroup. Germline mutations in PALB2 and BRCA2 were observed across the MBSHH, MBGroup3, and MBGroup4 molecular subgroups and were associated with mutational signatures typical of homologous recombination repair deficiency. In patients with a genetic predisposition to medulloblastoma, 5-year progression-free survival was 52% (95% CI 4069) and 5-year overall survival was 65% (95% CI 5281); these survival estimates differed significantly across patients with germline mutations in different medulloblastoma predisposition genes. Interpretation Genetic counselling and testing should be used as a standard-of-care procedure in patients with MBWNT and MBSHH because these patients have the highest prevalence of damaging germline mutations in known cancer predisposition genes. We propose criteria for routine genetic screening for patients with medulloblastoma based on clinical and molecular tumour characteristics. Copyright (c) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 4. |
- Amendola, L., et al.
(författare)
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Cosmology and fundamental physics with the Euclid satellite
- 2018
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Ingår i: Living Reviews in Relativity. - : Springer. - 1433-8351 .- 2367-3613. ; 21:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Euclid is a European Space Agency medium-class mission selected for launch in 2020 within the cosmic vision 2015–2025 program. The main goal of Euclid is to understand the origin of the accelerated expansion of the universe. Euclid will explore the expansion history of the universe and the evolution of cosmic structures by measuring shapes and red-shifts of galaxies as well as the distribution of clusters of galaxies over a large fraction of the sky. Although the main driver for Euclid is the nature of dark energy, Euclid science covers a vast range of topics, from cosmology to galaxy evolution to planetary research. In this review we focus on cosmology and fundamental physics, with a strong emphasis on science beyond the current standard models. We discuss five broad topics: dark energy and modified gravity, dark matter, initial conditions, basic assumptions and questions of methodology in the data analysis. This review has been planned and carried out within Euclid’s Theory Working Group and is meant to provide a guide to the scientific themes that will underlie the activity of the group during the preparation of the Euclid mission.
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| 9. |
- Arcopinto, M., et al.
(författare)
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Growth Hormone Deficiency Is Associated with Worse Cardiac Function, Physical Performance, and Outcome in Chronic Heart Failure: Insights from the TOSCA. GHD Study
- 2017
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Ingår i: Plos One. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 12:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Although mounting evidence supports the concept that growth hormone (GH) deficiency (GHD) affects cardiovascular function, no study has systematically investigated its prevalence and role in a large cohort of chronic heart failure (CHF) patients. Aim of this study is to assess the prevalence of GHD in mild-to-moderate CHF and to explore clinical and functional correlates of GHD. One-hundred thirty CHF patients underwent GH provocative test with GHRH+arginine and accordingly categorized into GH-deficiency (GHD, n = 88, age = 61.6 +/- 1.1 years, 68% men) and GH-sufficiency (GHS, n = 42, age = 63.6 +/- 1.5 years, 81% men) cohorts. Both groups received comprehensive cardiovascular examination and underwent Doppler echocardiography, cardiopulmonary exercise testing, and biochemical and hormonal assay. GHD was detected in roughly 30% of CHF patients. Compared to GHD, GHS patients showed smaller end-diastolic and end-systolic LV volumes (-28%, p=.008 and -24%, p=.015, respectively), lower LV end-systolic wall stress (-21%, p=.03), higher RV performance (+18% in RV area change, p=.03), lower estimated systolic pulmonary artery pressure (-11%, p=.04), higher peak VO2 (+20%, p=.001) and increased ventilatory efficiency (-12% in VE/VCO2 slope, p=.002). After adjusting for clinical covariates (age, gender, and tertiles of LV ejection fraction, IGF-1, peak VO2, VE/VCO2 slope, and NT-proBNP), logistic multivariate analysis showed that peak VO2 (beta = -1.92, SE = 1.67, p=.03), VE/VCO2 slope (beta = 2.23, SE = 1.20, p=.02) and NT-proBNP (beta = 2.48, SE = 1.02, p=.016), were significantly associated with GHD status. Finally, compared to GHS, GHD cohort showed higher all-cause mortality at median follow-up of 3.5 years (40% vs. 25%, p<.001, respectively), independent of age, sex, NT-proBNP, peak VO2 and LVEF. GH deficiency identifies a subgroup of CHF patients characterized by impaired functional capacity, LV remodeling and elevated NT-proBNP levels. GHD is also associated with increased all-cause mortality.
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| 10. |
- Ricklefs, Robert E, et al.
(författare)
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Avian migration and the distribution of malaria parasites in New World passerine birds
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 0305-0270 .- 1365-2699. ; 44:5, s. 1113-1123
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim: Migrating birds transport their parasites, often over long distances, but little is known about the transfer of these parasites to resident hosts in either the wintering or breeding ranges of the migratory host populations. We investigated the haemosporidian parasite faunas of migratory and resident birds to determine connections among distant parasite faunas, plausibly brought about by migratory host populations. Location: Samples were obtained, primarily during or shortly after the local breeding season, throughout the Americas, from the United States through the Caribbean Basin and into northern South America. Methods: Infections were identified by PCR and sequencing of parasite DNA in avian blood samples. The analyses were based on c. 4700 infections representing 79 parasite lineages of Plasmodium and Haemoproteus spp. Geographical connections of lineages between regions in the Americas were compared to those in the Euro-African migration system, where migration distances are longer for many host species and the migrant and resident avifaunas in the wintering areas are phylogenetically more divergent. Results: Haemosporidian lineages exhibited considerable variation in distribution in the Americas, and patterns of distribution differ markedly between the Americas and the Euro-African migration system. In particular, few lineages were recovered from resident species in both temperate and tropical latitudes, particularly in the Euro-African system, in which a large proportion of lineages were restricted to migrants. Parasite lineages in the Euro-African system exhibited considerable phylogenetic conservatism in their distributions, that is, a tendency of related lineages to exhibit similar geographical distributions. In contrast, clades of parasites in the Americas displayed more geographical diversity, with four of 12 clades exhibiting all four of the distribution types representing the combinations of resident and migrant host species in both temperate and tropical latitudes. Main conclusions: Long-distance migrants connect communities of avian haemosporidian parasites in breeding and wintering areas with disparate avifaunas and different vector communities. The degree of parasite lineage sharing between migrants and residents in breeding and wintering areas appears to reflect, to a large degree, the taxonomic similarity of migrants to the resident species in both areas.
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