| 1. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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| 2. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
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| 3. |
- Brentrup, Jennifer A., et al.
(författare)
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The potential of high-frequency profiling to assess vertical and seasonal patterns of phytoplankton dynamics in lakes : an extension of the Plankton Ecology Group (PEG) model
- 2016
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Ingår i: Inland Waters. - 2044-2041 .- 2044-205X. ; 6:4, s. 565-580
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The use of high-frequency sensors on profiling buoys to investigate physical, chemical, and biological processes in lakes is increasing rapidly. Profiling buoys with automated winches and sensors that collect high-frequency chlorophyll fluorescence (ChlF) profiles in 11 lakes in the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) allowed the study of the vertical and temporal distribution of ChlF, including the formation of subsurface chlorophyll maxima (SSCM). The effectiveness of 3 methods for sampling phytoplankton distributions in lakes, including (1) manual profiles, (2) single-depth buoys, and (3) profiling buoys were assessed. High-frequency ChlF surface data and profiles were compared to predictions from the Plankton Ecology Group (PEG) model. The depth-integrated ChlF dynamics measured by the profiling buoy data revealed a greater complexity that neither conventional sampling nor the generalized PEG model captured. Conventional sampling techniques would have missed SSCM in 7 of 11 study lakes. Although surface-only ChlF data underestimated average water column ChlF, at times by nearly 2-fold in 4 of the lakes, overall there was a remarkable similarity between surface and mean water column data. Contrary to the PEG model's proposed negligible role for physical control of phytoplankton during the growing season, thermal structure and light availability were closely associated with ChlF seasonal depth distribution. Thus, an extension of the PEG model is proposed, with a new conceptual framework that explicitly includes physical metrics to better predict SSCM formation in lakes and highlight when profiling buoys are especially informative.
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| 4. |
- Bruce, Louise C, et al.
(författare)
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A multi-lake comparative analysis of the General Lake Model (GLM) : Stress-testing across a global observatory network
- 2018
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Ingår i: Environmental Modelling & Software. - : Elsevier BV. - 1364-8152 .- 1873-6726. ; 102, s. 274-291
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The modelling community has identified challenges for the integration and assessment of lake models due to the diversity of modelling approaches and lakes. In this study, we develop and assess a one-dimensional lake model and apply it to 32 lakes from a global observatory network. The data set included lakes over broad ranges in latitude, climatic zones, size, residence time, mixing regime and trophic level. Model performance was evaluated using several error assessment metrics, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted for nine parameters that governed the surface heat exchange and mixing efficiency. There was low correlation between input data uncertainty and model performance and predictions of temperature were less sensitive to model parameters than prediction of thermocline depth and Schmidt stability. The study provides guidance to where the general model approach and associated assumptions work, and cases where adjustments to model parameterisations and/or structure are required.
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| 5. |
- Martin Ginis, Kathleen A., et al.
(författare)
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Evidence-based scientific exercise guidelines for adults with spinal cord injury : an update and a new guideline
- 2018
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Ingår i: Spinal Cord. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1362-4393 .- 1476-5624. ; 56, s. 308-321
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives: To describe the process and outcomes of using a new evidence base to develop scientific guidelines that specify the type and minimum dose of exercise necessary to improve fitness and cardiometabolic health in adults with spinal cord injury (SCI). Setting: International. Methods: Using Appraisal of Guidelines, Research and Evaluation (AGREE) II reporting criteria, steps included (a) determining the guidelines’ scope; (b) conducting a systematic review of relevant literature; (c) holding three consensus panel meetings (European, Canadian and International) to formulate the guidelines; (d) obtaining stakeholder feedback; and (e) process evaluation by an AGREE II consultant. Stakeholders were actively involved in steps (c) and (d). Results: For cardiorespiratory fitness and muscle strength benefits, adults with a SCI should engage in at least 20 min of moderate to vigorous intensity aerobic exercise 2 times per week AND 3 sets of strength exercises for each major functioning muscle group, at a moderate to vigorous intensity, 2 times per week (strong recommendation). For cardiometabolic health benefits, adults with a SCI are suggested to engage in at least 30 min of moderate to vigorous intensity aerobic exercise 3 times per week (conditional recommendation). Conclusions: Through a systematic, rigorous, and participatory process involving international scientists and stakeholders, a new exercise guideline was formulated for cardiometabolic health benefits. A previously published SCI guideline was endorsed for achieving fitness benefits. These guidelines represent an important step toward international harmonization of exercise guidelines for adults with SCI, and a foundation for developing exercise policies and programs for people with SCI around the world.
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