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- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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- Gilbert, F., et al.
(författare)
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Sediment reworking by the burrowing polychaete Hediste diversicolor modulated by environmental and biological factors across the temperate North Atlantic. A tribute to Gaston Desrosiers
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-0981. ; 541
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Particle mixing and irrigation of the seabed by benthic fauna (bioturbation) have major impacts on ecosystem functions such as remineralization of organic matter and sediment-water exchange. As a tribute to Prof. Gaston Desrosiers by the Nereis Park association, eighteen laboratories carried out a collaborative experiment to acquire a global snapshot of particle reworking by the polychaete Hediste diversicolor at 16 sites surrounding the Northern Atlantic. Organisms and soft sediments were collected during May - July at different geographical locations and, using a common laboratory protocol, particulate fluorescent tracers (`luminophores') were used to quantify particle transport over a 10-day period. Particle mixing was quantified using the maximum penetration depth of tracers (MPD), particle diffusive coefficients (D-b), and non-local transport coefficients (r). Non-local coefficients (reflecting centimeter scale transport steps) ranged from 0.4 to 15 yr(-1), and were not correlated across sites with any measured biological (biomass, biovolume) or environmental parameters (temperature, grain size, organic matter). Maximum penetration depths (MPD) averaged similar to 10.7 cm (6.5-14.5 cm), and were similar to the global average bioturbation depth inferred from short-lived radiochemical tracers. MPD was also not correlated with measures of size (individual biomass), but increased with grain size and decreased with temperature. Bio-diffusion (D-b) correlated inversely with individual biomass (size) and directly with temperature over the environmental range (Q(10) similar to 1.7; 5-21 degrees C). The transport data were comparable in magnitude to rates reported for localized H. diversicolor populations of similar size, and confirmed some but not all correlations between sediment reworking and biological and environmental variables found in previous studies. The results imply that measures of particle reworking activities of a species from a single location can be generally extrapolated to different populations at similar conditions.
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- Conley, R. B., et al.
(författare)
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Secondary Fracture Prevention: Consensus Clinical Recommendations from a Multistakeholder Coalition
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Bone and Mineral Research. - : Wiley. - 0884-0431 .- 1523-4681. ; 35:1, s. 36-52
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Osteoporosis-related fractures are undertreated, due in part to misinformation about recommended approaches to patient care and discrepancies among treatment guidelines. To help bridge this gap and improve patient outcomes, the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research assembled a multistakeholder coalition to develop clinical recommendations for the optimal prevention of secondary fracture among people aged 65 years and older with a hip or vertebral fracture. The coalition developed 13 recommendations (7 primary and 6 secondary) strongly supported by the empirical literature. The coalition recommends increased communication with patients regarding fracture risk, mortality and morbidity outcomes, and fracture risk reduction. Risk assessment (including fall history) should occur at regular intervals with referral to physical and/or occupational therapy as appropriate. Oral, intravenous, and subcutaneous pharmacotherapies are efficacious and can reduce risk of future fracture. Patients need education, however, about the benefits and risks of both treatment and not receiving treatment. Oral bisphosphonates alendronate and risedronate are first-line options and are generally well tolerated; otherwise, intravenous zoledronic acid and subcutaneous denosumab can be considered. Anabolic agents are expensive but may be beneficial for selected patients at high risk. Optimal duration of pharmacotherapy is unknown but because the risk for second fractures is highest in the early post-fracture period, prompt treatment is recommended. Adequate dietary or supplemental vitamin D and calcium intake should be assured. Individuals being treated for osteoporosis should be reevaluated for fracture risk routinely, including via patient education about osteoporosis and fractures and monitoring for adverse treatment effects. Patients should be strongly encouraged to avoid tobacco, consume alcohol in moderation at most, and engage in regular exercise and fall prevention strategies. Finally, referral to endocrinologists or other osteoporosis specialists may be warranted for individuals who experience repeated fracture or bone loss and those with complicating comorbidities (eg, hyperparathyroidism, chronic kidney disease). (c) 2019 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.
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- Sguazzin, M., et al.
(författare)
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Determining neutron-induced reaction cross sections through surrogate reactions at storage rings
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Physics: Conference Series. - 1742-6588 .- 1742-6596. ; 2586:1
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Determining the cross sections of neutron-induced reactions on short-lived nuclei is imperative to rate calculations in stellar nucleosynthesis and applications of nuclear physics. It is also an immense experimental challenge due to the radioactivity of the targets involved. Our goal is to circumvent this obstacle by using surrogate reactions in inverse kinematics at the heavy-ion storage rings of GSI/FAIR. We present here preliminary results from the first proof of principle experiment, where a beam of 208Pb impinged on a H2 gas jet target in the Experimental Storage Ring (ESR).
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| 8. |
- Sguazzin, M., et al.
(författare)
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Indirect measurements of neutron -induced reaction cross sections at heavy -ion storage rings
- 2023
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Ingår i: 15TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON NUCLEAR DATA FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, ND2022. - 2100-014X. ; 284
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Neutron-induced reaction cross sections of unstable nuclei are essential for understanding the synthesis of heavy elements in stars and for applications in nuclear technology. However, their measurement is very complicated due to the radioactivity of the targets involved. We propose to circumvent this problem by using the surrogate reaction method in inverse kinematics, where the nucleus formed in the neutroninduced reaction of interest is produced by a reaction involving a radioactive heavy -ion beam and a stable, light target nucleus. The probabilities as a function of the compound -nucleus excitation energy for y -ray emission, neutron emission and fission, which can be measured with the surrogate reaction, are particularly useful to constrain model parameters and to obtain more accurate predictions of the neutron-induced reaction cross sections of interest. Yet, the full development of the surrogate method is hampered by numerous longstanding target issues, which can be solved by combining surrogate reactions with the unique and largely unexplored possibilities at heavy -ion storage rings. In this contribution, we describe the developments we are carrying out to measure for the first time simultaneously y-ray emission, neutron emission and fission probabilities at the storage rings of the GSI/FAIR facility. In particular, we will present the first results of the proof of principle experiment, which we performed in June 2022 at the Experimental Storage Ring (ESR)
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| 9. |
- Sguazzin, M., et al.
(författare)
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Indirect measurements of neutron-induced reaction cross sections at storage rings
- 2023
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Ingår i: NUCLEAR PHYSICS IN ASTROPHYSICS - X, NPA-X 2022. - : EDP Sciences. - 2100-014X. ; 279
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Neutron-induced reaction cross sections of unstable nuclei are essential for understanding the synthesis of heavy elements in stars. However, their measurement is very difficult due to the radioactivity of the targets involved. We propose to circumvent this problem by using for the first time the surrogate reaction method in inverse kinematics at heavy-ion storage rings. In this contribution, we describe the developments we have done to perform surrogate-reaction studies at the storage rings of GSI/FAIR. In particular, we present the first results of the proof of principle experiment, which we conducted recently at the Experimental Storage Ring (ESR).
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