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- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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- Conley, R. B., et al.
(författare)
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Secondary Fracture Prevention: Consensus Clinical Recommendations from a Multistakeholder Coalition
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Bone and Mineral Research. - : Wiley. - 0884-0431 .- 1523-4681. ; 35:1, s. 36-52
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Osteoporosis-related fractures are undertreated, due in part to misinformation about recommended approaches to patient care and discrepancies among treatment guidelines. To help bridge this gap and improve patient outcomes, the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research assembled a multistakeholder coalition to develop clinical recommendations for the optimal prevention of secondary fracture among people aged 65 years and older with a hip or vertebral fracture. The coalition developed 13 recommendations (7 primary and 6 secondary) strongly supported by the empirical literature. The coalition recommends increased communication with patients regarding fracture risk, mortality and morbidity outcomes, and fracture risk reduction. Risk assessment (including fall history) should occur at regular intervals with referral to physical and/or occupational therapy as appropriate. Oral, intravenous, and subcutaneous pharmacotherapies are efficacious and can reduce risk of future fracture. Patients need education, however, about the benefits and risks of both treatment and not receiving treatment. Oral bisphosphonates alendronate and risedronate are first-line options and are generally well tolerated; otherwise, intravenous zoledronic acid and subcutaneous denosumab can be considered. Anabolic agents are expensive but may be beneficial for selected patients at high risk. Optimal duration of pharmacotherapy is unknown but because the risk for second fractures is highest in the early post-fracture period, prompt treatment is recommended. Adequate dietary or supplemental vitamin D and calcium intake should be assured. Individuals being treated for osteoporosis should be reevaluated for fracture risk routinely, including via patient education about osteoporosis and fractures and monitoring for adverse treatment effects. Patients should be strongly encouraged to avoid tobacco, consume alcohol in moderation at most, and engage in regular exercise and fall prevention strategies. Finally, referral to endocrinologists or other osteoporosis specialists may be warranted for individuals who experience repeated fracture or bone loss and those with complicating comorbidities (eg, hyperparathyroidism, chronic kidney disease). (c) 2019 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.
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- Gilbert, F., et al.
(författare)
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Sediment reworking by the burrowing polychaete Hediste diversicolor modulated by environmental and biological factors across the temperate North Atlantic. A tribute to Gaston Desrosiers
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-0981. ; 541
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Particle mixing and irrigation of the seabed by benthic fauna (bioturbation) have major impacts on ecosystem functions such as remineralization of organic matter and sediment-water exchange. As a tribute to Prof. Gaston Desrosiers by the Nereis Park association, eighteen laboratories carried out a collaborative experiment to acquire a global snapshot of particle reworking by the polychaete Hediste diversicolor at 16 sites surrounding the Northern Atlantic. Organisms and soft sediments were collected during May - July at different geographical locations and, using a common laboratory protocol, particulate fluorescent tracers (`luminophores') were used to quantify particle transport over a 10-day period. Particle mixing was quantified using the maximum penetration depth of tracers (MPD), particle diffusive coefficients (D-b), and non-local transport coefficients (r). Non-local coefficients (reflecting centimeter scale transport steps) ranged from 0.4 to 15 yr(-1), and were not correlated across sites with any measured biological (biomass, biovolume) or environmental parameters (temperature, grain size, organic matter). Maximum penetration depths (MPD) averaged similar to 10.7 cm (6.5-14.5 cm), and were similar to the global average bioturbation depth inferred from short-lived radiochemical tracers. MPD was also not correlated with measures of size (individual biomass), but increased with grain size and decreased with temperature. Bio-diffusion (D-b) correlated inversely with individual biomass (size) and directly with temperature over the environmental range (Q(10) similar to 1.7; 5-21 degrees C). The transport data were comparable in magnitude to rates reported for localized H. diversicolor populations of similar size, and confirmed some but not all correlations between sediment reworking and biological and environmental variables found in previous studies. The results imply that measures of particle reworking activities of a species from a single location can be generally extrapolated to different populations at similar conditions.
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| 7. |
- Conley, Robert B., et al.
(författare)
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Secondary Fracture Prevention : Consensus Clinical Recommendations from a Multistakeholder Coalition
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Orthopaedic Trauma. - 0890-5339. ; 34:4, s. 125-141
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Osteoporosis-related fractures are undertreated, due in part to misinformation about recommended approaches to patient care and discrepancies among treatment guidelines. To help bridge this gap and improve patient outcomes, the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research assembled a multistakeholder coalition to develop clinical recommendations for the optimal prevention of secondary fractureamong people aged 65 years and older with a hip or vertebral fracture. The coalition developed 13 recommendations (7 primary and 6 secondary) strongly supported by the empirical literature. The coalition recommends increased communication with patients regarding fracture risk, mortality and morbidity outcomes, and fracture risk reduction. Risk assessment (including fall history) should occur at regular intervals with referral to physical and/or occupational therapy as appropriate. Oral, intravenous, andsubcutaneous pharmacotherapies are efficaciousandcanreduce risk of future fracture.Patientsneededucation,however, about thebenefitsandrisks of both treatment and not receiving treatment. Oral bisphosphonates alendronate and risedronate are first-line options and are generally well tolerated; otherwise, intravenous zoledronic acid and subcutaneous denosumab can be considered. Anabolic agents are expensive butmay be beneficial for selected patients at high risk.Optimal duration of pharmacotherapy is unknown but because the risk for second fractures is highest in the earlypost-fractureperiod,prompt treatment is recommended.Adequate dietary or supplemental vitaminDand calciumintake shouldbe assured. Individuals beingtreatedfor osteoporosis shouldbe reevaluated for fracture risk routinely, includingvia patienteducationabout osteoporosisandfracturesandmonitoringfor adverse treatment effects.Patients shouldbestronglyencouraged to avoid tobacco, consume alcohol inmoderation atmost, and engage in regular exercise and fall prevention strategies. Finally, referral to endocrinologists or other osteoporosis specialists may be warranted for individuals who experience repeated fracture or bone loss and those with complicating comorbidities (eg, hyperparathyroidism, chronic kidney disease).
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| 8. |
- Conley, Robert B., et al.
(författare)
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Secondary Fracture Prevention : Consensus Clinical Recommendations from a Multistakeholder Coalition
- 2020
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Ingår i: Orthopaedic Nursing. - 0744-6020. ; 39:3, s. 145-161
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Osteoporosis-related fractures are undertreated, due in part to misinformation about recommended approaches to patient care and discrepancies among treatment guidelines. To help bridge this gap and improve patient outcomes, the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research assembled a multistakeholder coalition to develop clinical recommendations for the optimal prevention of secondary fracture among people aged 65 years and older with a hip or vertebral fracture. The coalition developed 13 recommendations (7 primary and 6 secondary) strongly supported by the empirical literature. The coalition recommends increased communication with patients regarding fracture risk, mortality and morbidity outcomes, and fracture risk reduction. Risk assessment (including fall history) should occur at regular intervals with referral to physical and/or occupational therapy as appropriate. Oral, intravenous, and subcutaneous pharmacotherapies are efficacious and can reduce risk offuture fracture. Patients need education, however, about the benefits and risks of both treatment and not receiving treatment. Oral bisphosphonates alendronate and risedronate are first-line options and are generally well tolerated; otherwise, intravenous zoledronic acid and subcutaneous denosumab can be considered. Anabolic agents are expensive but may be beneficial for selected patients at high risk. Optimal duration of pharmacotherapy is unknown but because the riskfor second fractures is highest in the early post-fracture period, prompt treatment is recommended. Adequate dietary or supplemental vitamin D and calcium intake should be assured. Individuals being treated for osteoporosis should be reevaluated for fracture risk routinely, including via patient education about osteoporosis and fractures and monitoring foradverse treatment effects. Patients should be strongly encouraged to avoid tobacco, consume alcohol in moderation at most, and engage in regular exercise and fall prevention strategies. Finally, referral to endocrinologists or other osteoporosis specialists may be warranted for individuals who experience repeated fracture or bone loss and those with complicating comorbidities (eg, hyperparathyroidism, chronic kidney disease). (c) 2019 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.
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- Derba-Maceluch, Marta, et al.
(författare)
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Cell Wall Acetylation in Hybrid Aspen Affects Field Performance, Foliar Phenolic Composition and Resistance to Biological Stress Factors in a Construct-Dependent Fashion
- 2020
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Plant Science. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 1664-462X. ; 11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The production of biofuels and "green" chemicals from the lignocellulose of fast-growing hardwood species is hampered by extensive acetylation of xylan. Different strategies have been implemented to reduce xylan acetylation, resulting in transgenic plants that show good growth in the greenhouse, improved saccharification and fermentation, but the field performance of such plants has not yet been reported. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of reduced acetylation on field productivity and identify the best strategies for decreasing acetylation. Growth and biological stress data were evaluated for 18 hybrid aspen lines with 10-20% reductions in the cell wall acetyl content from a five year field experiment in Southern Sweden. The reduction in acetyl content was achieved either by suppressing the process of acetylation in the Golgi by reducing expression of REDUCED WALL ACETYLATION (RWA) genes, or by post-synthetic acetyl removal by fungal acetyl xylan esterases (AXEs) from two different families, CE1 and CE5, targeting them to cell walls. Transgene expression was regulated by either a constitutive promoter (35S) or a wood-specific promoter (WP). For the majority of transgenic lines, growth was either similar to that in WT and transgenic control (WP:GUS) plants, or slightly reduced. The slight reduction was observed in the AXE-expressing lines regulated by the 35S promoter, not those with the WP promoter which limits expression to cells developing secondary walls. Expressing AXEs regulated by the 35S promoter resulted in increased foliar arthropod chewing, and altered condensed tannins and salicinoid phenolic glucosides (SPGs) profiles. Greater growth inhibition was observed in the case of CE5 than with CE1 AXE, and it was associated with increased foliar necrosis and distinct SPG profiles, suggesting that CE5 AXE could be recognized by the pathogen-associated molecular pattern system. For each of three different constructs, there was a line with dwarfism and growth abnormalities, suggesting random genetic/epigenetic changes. This high frequency of dwarfism (17%) is suggestive of a link between acetyl metabolism and chromatin function. These data represent the first evaluation of acetyl-reduced plants from the field, indicating some possible pitfalls, and identifying the best strategies, when developing highly productive acetyl-reduced feedstocks.
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- Luwangula, Ahmed K., et al.
(författare)
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Improving iron and folic acid supplementation among pregnant women : an implementation science approach in east-central Uganda
- 2022
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Ingår i: Global Health. - 2169-575X. ; 10:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: To address maternal iron-deficiency anemia and low uptake of iron and folic acid supplementation (IFAS) among antenatal care (ANC) clinic attendees in East-Central Uganda, the Anemia Implementation Science Initiative embedded enhanced quality improvement (QI) activities into an integrated health project utilizing QI methodologies.Methods: To address 2 bottlenecks of stock-outs and inadequate health education for pregnant women during ANC, an enhanced QI intervention was implemented from July 2019 to September 2020 in 2 districts. We conducted a mixed-methods effectiveness quasi-experimental study to assess whether the intervention increased the availability of IFAS in the intervention districts. We used longitudinal facility-level data from 2 treatment districts and 1 comparison district for the quantitative results. Difference-in-difference estimation was used to measure the impact of the intervention on IFAS health education and IFA availability at the health facility. We used logistic regression modeling to control for factors associated with IFAS uptake and potential differences in baseline values. Researchers conducted exit interviews with ANC clients and in-depth interviews with providers and district managers for greater insights into the implementation process.Results: The intervention increased the probability, at a statistically significant level, of pregnant women both receiving IFAS and receiving health education on IFAS during ANC. According to interviewees, the intervention approach improved stakeholder engagement and buy-in, which brought about change at all levels of the health system.Discussion: The intervention successfully addressed the 2 main bottlenecks to availability of IFAS for pregnant women attending ANC-inadequate provision of IFAS education and a weak drug quantification process. Even without additional funds to purchase commodities, this approach improved district capacity to advocate for and manage IFAS commodities. It could also be used to strengthen overall ANC quality.
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