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- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 4. |
- Bittmann, Simon F., et al.
(författare)
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Ultrafast ring-opening and solvent-dependent product relaxation of photochromic spironaphthopyran
- 2019
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Ingår i: Physical Chemistry, Chemical Physics - PCCP. - : ROYAL SOC CHEMISTRY. - 1463-9076 .- 1463-9084. ; 21:33, s. 18119-18127
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The ultrafast dynamics of unsubstituted spironaphthopyran (SNP) were investigated using femtosecond transient UV and visible absorption spectroscopy in three different solvents and by semi-classical nuclear dynamics simulations. The primary ring-opening of the pyran unit was found to occur in 300 fs yielding a non-planar intermediate in the first singlet excited state (S-1). Subsequent planarisation and relaxation to the product ground state proceed through barrier crossing on the S-1 potential energy surface (PES) and take place within 1.1 ps after excitation. Simulations show that more than 90% of the trajectories involving C-O bond elongation lead to the planar, open-ring product, while relaxation back to the S-0 of the closed-ring form is accompanied by C-N elongation. All ensuing spectral dynamics are ascribed to vibrational relaxation and thermalisation of the product with a time constant of 13 ps. The latter shows dependency on characteristics of the solvent with solvent relaxation kinetics playing a role.
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| 5. |
- Jenniskens, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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The Creston, California, meteorite fall and the origin of L chondrites
- 2019
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Ingår i: Meteoritics and Planetary Science. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1086-9379 .- 1945-5100. ; 54:4, s. 699-720
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It has been proposed that all L chondrites resulted from an ongoing collisional cascade of fragments that originated from the formation of the ~500 Ma old asteroid family Gefion, located near the 5:2 mean‐motion resonance with Jupiter in the middle Main Belt. If so, L chondrite pre‐atmospheric orbits should be distributed as expected for that source region. Here, we present contradictory results from the orbit and collisional history of the October 24, 2015, L6 ordinary chondrite fall at Creston, CA (here reclassified to L5/6). Creston's short 1.30 ± 0.02 AU semimajor axis orbit would imply a long dynamical evolution if it originated from the middle Main Belt. Indeed, Creston has a high cosmic ray exposure age of 40–50 Ma. However, Creston's small meteoroid size and low 4.23 ± 0.07° inclination indicate a short dynamical lifetime against collisions. This suggests, instead, that Creston originated most likely in the inner asteroid belt and was delivered via the ν6 resonance. The U‐Pb systematics of Creston apatite reveals a Pb‐Pb age of 4,497.1 ± 3.7 Ma, and an upper intercept U‐Pb age of 4,496.7 ± 5.8 Ma (2σ), circa 70 Ma after formation of CAI, as found for other L chondrites. The K‐Ar (age ~4.3 Ga) and U,Th‐He (age ~1 Ga) chronometers were not reset at ~500 Ma, while the lower intercept U‐Pb age is poorly defined as 770 ± 320 Ma. So far, the three known L chondrites that impacted on orbits with semimajor axes a <2.0 AU all have high (>3 Ga) K‐Ar ages. This argues for a source of some of our L chondrites in the inner Main Belt. Not all L chondrites originate in a continuous population of Gefion family debris stretching across the 3:1 mean‐motion resonance.
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| 6. |
- Dsouza, Raison, et al.
(författare)
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Oscillatory Photoelectron Signal of N-Methylmorpholine as a Test Case for the Algebraic-Diagrammatic Construction Method of Second Order
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Physical Chemistry A. - : AMER CHEMICAL SOC. - 1089-5639 .- 1520-5215. ; 122:50, s. 9688-9700
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Motivated by recent progress in the application of time-resolved photoelectron spectroscopy (TRPES) to molecular Rydberg states, we report herein a detailed assessment of the performance of the second-order algebraic diagrammatic construction (ADC(2)) method in the simulation of their TRPES spectra. As the test case, we employ the tertiary aliphatic amine N-methylmorpholine (NMM), which is notable for the fact that the signal of its 3s state exhibits long-lived oscillations along the electron binding energy axis. The relaxation process of photoexcited NMM is simulated via the Born-Oppenheimer molecular dynamics method, and the resulting TRPES spectrum is generated on the basis of ionization energies and approximate Dyson orbital norms calculated with the continuum orbital technique. On the whole, the simulated TRPES spectrum achieves satisfactory agreement with experiment, which suggests that the ADC(2) method provides a realistic description of the potential energy surfaces of the relevant excited and ionized states. In particular, the simulations reproduce the fine oscillatory structure of the signal of the 3s state, and provide evidence to the effect that it results from a coherent vibrational wavepacket evolving along the deformation modes of the six-membered ring. However, it is found that ADC(2) underestimates electron binding energies by up to a few tenths of an electronvolt. The case of NMM demonstrates the usefulness of ADC(2) as a tool to aid the interpretation of the TRPES spectra of large organic molecules.
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