| 1. |
- Delios, A., et al.
(author)
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Examining the generalizability of research findings from archival data
- 2022
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In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 119:30
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This initiative examined systematically the extent to which a large set of archival research findings generalizes across contexts. We repeated the key analyses for 29 original strategic management effects in the same context (direct reproduction) as well as in 52 novel time periods and geographies; 45% of the reproductions returned results matching the original reports together with 55% of tests in different spans of years and 40% of tests in novel geographies. Some original findings were associated with multiple new tests. Reproducibility was the best predictor of generalizability-for the findings that proved directly reproducible, 84% emerged in other available time periods and 57% emerged in other geographies. Overall, only limited empirical evidence emerged for context sensitivity. In a forecasting survey, independent scientists were able to anticipate which effects would find support in tests in new samples.
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| 2. |
- Furukawa, T. A., et al.
(author)
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Dismantling, optimising, and personalising internet cognitive behavioural therapy for depression: a systematic review and component network meta-analysis using individual data
- 2021
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In: Lancet Psychiatry. - : Elsevier BV. - 2215-0374 .- 2215-0366. ; 8:6, s. 500-511
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Findings We identified 76 RCTs, including 48 trials contributing individual participant data (11 704 participants) and 28 trials with aggregate data (6474 participants). The participants' weighted mean age was 42.0 years and 12 406 (71%) of 17 521 reported were women. There was suggestive evidence that behavioural activation might be beneficial (iMD -1.83 [95% credible interval (CrI) -2.90 to -0.80]) and that relaxation might be harmful (1.20 [95% CrI 0.17 to 2.27]). Baseline severity emerged as the strongest prognostic factor for endpoint depression. Combining human and automated encouragement reduced dropouts from treatment (incremental odds ratio, 0.32 [95% CrI 0.13 to 0.93]). The risk of bias was low for the randomisation process, missing outcome data, or selection of reported results in most of the included studies, uncertain for deviation from intended interventions, and high for measurement of outcomes. There was moderate to high heterogeneity among the studies and their components. 511
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| 3. |
- Zenteno, A., et al.
(author)
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A joint SZ-X-ray-optical analysis of the dynamical state of 288 massive galaxy clusters
- 2020
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In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 495:1, s. 705-725
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We use imaging from the first three years of the Dark Energy Survey to characterize the dynamical state of 288 galaxy clusters at 0.1 less than or similar to z less than or similar to 0.9 detected in the South Pole Telescope (SPT) Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) effect survey (SPT-SZ). We examine spatial offsets between the position of the brightest cluster galaxy (BCG) and the centre of the gas distribution as traced by the SPT-SZ centroid and by the X-ray centroid/peak position from Chandra and XMM data. We show that the radial distribution of offsets provides no evidence that SPT SZ-selected cluster samples include a higher fraction of mergers than X-ray-selected cluster samples. We use the offsets to classify the dynamical state of the clusters, selecting the 43 most disturbed clusters, with half of those at z greater than or similar to 0.5, a region seldom explored previously. We find that Schechter function fits to the galaxy population in disturbed clusters and relaxed clusters differ at z > 0.55 but not at lower redshifts. Disturbed clusters at z > 0.55 have steeper faint-end slopes and brighter characteristic magnitudes. Within the same redshift range, we find that the BCGs in relaxed clusters tend to be brighter than the BCGs in disturbed samples, while in agreement in the lower redshift bin. Possible explanations includes a higher merger rate, and a more efficient dynamical friction at high redshift. The red-sequence population is less affected by the cluster dynamical state than the general galaxy population.
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| 4. |
- Upsdell, E. W., et al.
(author)
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The XMM cluster survey : exploring scaling relations and completeness of the dark energy survey year 3 redMaPPer cluster catalogue
- 2023
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In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 522:4, s. 5267-5290
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We cross-match and compare characteristics of galaxy clusters identified in observations from two sky surveys using two completely different techniques. One sample is optically selected from the analysis of 3 years of Dark Energy Survey observations using the redMaPPer cluster detection algorithm. The second is X-ray selected from XMM observations analysed by the XMM Cluster Survey. The samples comprise a total area of 57.4 deg(2), bounded by the area of four contiguous XMM survey regions that overlap the DES footprint. We find that the X-ray-selected sample is fully matched with entries in the redMaPPer catalogue, above lambda > 20 and within 0.1 < z < 0.9. Conversely, only 38 per cent of the redMaPPer catalogue is matched to an X-ray extended source. Next, using 120 optically clusters and 184 X-ray-selected clusters, we investigate the form of the X-ray luminosity-temperature (L-X -T-X ), luminosity-richness (L-X - lambda), and temperature-richness (T-X - lambda) scaling relations. We find that the fitted forms of the L-X -T-X relations are consistent between the two selection methods and also with other studies in the literature. However, we find tentative evidence for a steepening of the slope of the relation for low richness systems in the X-ray-selected sample. When considering the scaling of richness with X-ray properties, we again find consistency in the relations (i.e. L-X - lambda and T-X - lambda) between the optical and X-ray-selected samples. This is contrary to previous similar works that find a significant increase in the scatter of the luminosity scaling relation for X-ray-selected samples compared to optically selected samples.
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| 5. |
- Grandis, S., et al.
(author)
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Validation of selection function, sample contamination and mass calibration in galaxy cluster samples
- 2020
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In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 498:1, s. 771-798
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We construct and validate the selection function of the MARD-Y3 galaxy cluster sample. This sample was selected through optical follow-up of the 2nd ROSAT faint source catalogue with Dark Energy Survey year 3 data. The selection function is modelled by combining an empirically constructed X-ray selection function with an incompleteness model for the optical follow-up. We validate the joint selection function by testing the consistency of the constraints on the X-ray flux–mass and richness–mass scaling relation parameters derived from different sources of mass information: (1) cross-calibration using South Pole Telescope Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SPT-SZ) clusters, (2) calibration using number counts in X-ray, in optical and in both X-ray and optical while marginalizing over cosmological parameters, and (3) other published analyses. We find that the constraints on the scaling relation from the number counts and SPT-SZ cross-calibration agree, indicating that our modelling of the selection function is adequate. Furthermore, we apply a largely cosmology independent method to validate selection functions via the computation of the probability of finding each cluster in the SPT-SZ sample in the MARD-Y3 sample and vice versa. This test reveals no clear evidence for MARD-Y3 contamination, SPT-SZ incompleteness or outlier fraction. Finally, we discuss the prospects of the techniques presented here to limit systematic selection effects in future cluster cosmological studies.
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| 6. |
- Sherratt, K., et al.
(author)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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In: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 7. |
- Wasserman, D, et al.
(author)
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Compulsory admissions of patients with mental disorders: State of the art on ethical and legislative aspects in 40 European countries
- 2020
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In: European psychiatry : the journal of the Association of European Psychiatrists. - : Royal College of Psychiatrists. - 1778-3585. ; 63:1, s. e82-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background.Compulsory admission procedures of patients with mental disorders vary between countries in Europe. The Ethics Committee of the European Psychiatric Association (EPA) launched a survey on involuntary admission procedures of patients with mental disorders in 40 countries to gather information from all National Psychiatric Associations that are members of the EPA to develop recommendations for improving involuntary admission processes and promote voluntary care.Methods.The survey focused on legislation of involuntary admissions and key actors involved in the admission procedure as well as most common reasons for involuntary admissions.Results.We analyzed the survey categorical data in themes, which highlight that both medical and legal actors are involved in involuntary admission procedures.Conclusions.We conclude that legal reasons for compulsory admission should be reworded in order to remove stigmatization of the patient, that raising awareness about involuntary admission procedures and patient rights with both patients and family advocacy groups is paramount, that communication about procedures should be widely available in lay-language for the general population, and that training sessions and guidance should be available for legal and medical practitioners. Finally, people working in the field need to be constantly aware about the ethical challenges surrounding compulsory admissions.
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| 8. |
- Abazajian, Kevork, et al.
(author)
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CMB-S4 : Forecasting Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves
- 2022
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In: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 926:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- CMB-S4—the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment—is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semianalytic projection tool, targeted explicitly toward optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2–3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments, given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semianalytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for r > 0.003 at greater than 5σ, or in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of r < 0.001 at 95% CL.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Mohr, S., et al.
(author)
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The alternative serotonin transporter promoter P2 impacts gene function in females with irritable bowel syndrome
- 2021
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In: Journal of Cellular and Molecular Medicine. - : Wiley. - 1582-1838 .- 1582-4934. ; 25:16, s. 8047-8061
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is a gut-brain disorder in which symptoms are shaped by serotonin acting centrally and peripherally. The serotonin transporter gene SLC6A4 has been implicated in IBS pathophysiology, but the underlying genetic mechanisms remain unclear. We sequenced the alternative P2 promoter driving intestinal SLC6A4 expression and identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that were associated with IBS in a discovery sample. Identified SNPs built different haplotypes, and the tagging SNP rs2020938 seems to associate with constipation-predominant IBS (IBS-C) in females. rs2020938 validation was performed in 1978 additional IBS patients and 6,038 controls from eight countries. Meta-analysis on data from 2,175 IBS patients and 6,128 controls confirmed the association with female IBS-C. Expression analyses revealed that the P2 promoter drives SLC6A4 expression primarily in the small intestine. Gene reporter assays showed a functional impact of SNPs in the P2 region. In silico analysis of the polymorphic promoter indicated differential expression regulation. Further follow-up revealed that the major allele of the tagging SNP rs2020938 correlates with differential SLC6A4 expression in the jejunum and with stool consistency, indicating functional relevance. Our data consolidate rs2020938 as a functional SNP associated with IBS-C risk in females, underlining the relevance of SLC6A4 in IBS pathogenesis.
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