| 1. |
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(författare)
-
Integrating Multiple Research Methods to Unravel the Complexity of Human-Water Systems
- 2021
-
Ingår i: AGU Advances. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2576-604X. ; 2:3
-
Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Predicting floods and droughts is essential to inform the development of policy in water management, climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Yet, hydrological predictions are highly uncertain, while the frequency, severity and spatial distribution of extreme events are further complicated by the increasing impact of human activities on the water cycle. In this commentary, we argue that four main aspects characterizing the complexity of human-water systems should be explicitly addressed: feedbacks, scales, tradeoffs and inequalities. We propose the integration of multiple research methods as a way to cope with complexity and develop policy-relevant science.Plain Language SummarySeveral governments today claim to be following the science in addressing crises caused by the occurrence of extreme events, such as floods and droughts, or the emergence of global threats, such as climate change and COVID-19. In this commentary, we show that there are no universal answers to apparently simple questions such as: Do levees reduce flood risk? Do reservoirs alleviate droughts? We argue that the best science we have consists of a plurality of legitimate interpretations and a range of foresights, which can be enriched by integrating multiple disciplines and research methods.
|
|
| 2. |
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(författare)
-
Multiple hazards and risk perceptions over time : the availability heuristic in Italy and Sweden under COVID-19
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Natural hazards and earth system sciences. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1561-8633 .- 1684-9981. ; 21:11, s. 3439-3447
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The severe impact of global crises, such as COVID-19 and climate change, is plausibly reshaping the way in which people perceive risks. In this paper, we examine and compare how global crises and local disasters influence public perceptions of multiple hazards in Italy and Sweden. To this end, we integrate information about the occurrence of hazardous events with the results of two nationwide surveys. These included more than 4000 participants and were conducted in two different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic corresponding to low (August 2020) and high (November 2020) levels of infection rates. We found that, in both countries, people are more worried about risks related to experienced events. This is in line with the cognitive process known as the availability heuristic: individuals assess the risk associated with a given hazard based on how easily it comes to their mind. Epidemics, for example, are perceived as less likely and more impactful in Italy compared to Sweden. This outcome can be explained by cross-country differences in the impact of, as well as governmental responses to, COVID-19. Notwithstanding the ongoing pandemic, people in both Italy and Sweden are highly concerned about climate change, and they rank it as the most likely threat.
|
|
| 3. |
- Ridolfi, Elena, et al.
(författare)
-
Hydrological risk : modeling flood memory and human proximity to rivers
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Hydrology Research. - : IWA Publishing. - 1998-9563 .- 2224-7955 .- 0029-1277. ; 52:1, s. 241-252
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent literature in sociohydrology has shown the important role of flood memory in shaping hydrological risk. In this paper, we present a system dynamics model of human–flood interactions that simulates how the river proximity of human settlements is altered by changes in flood memory. We also compare our model outcomes with an unprecedented dataset consisting of historical and archeological observations of human settlements in Czech Republic that have been affected by major flood events. This comparison allows us to evaluate the potentials and limitations of our sociohydrological model in capturing essential features of flood risk changes, including the process of resettling farther and closer to the river. Our results show that the accumulation (and decay) of collective memory has potential in explaining temporal changes of flood risk driven by the occurrence (or absence) of major events. As such, this study contributes to advancing knowledge about the complex dynamics of human–water systems, while providing useful insights in the field of flood risk reduction.
|
|
| 4. |
- Franceschinis, Cristiano, et al.
(författare)
-
Heterogeneity in flood risk awareness : A longitudinal, latent class model approach
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 599
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Insights into the heterogeneity of human behaviours and attitudes toward risk require the understanding of the role played by a plurality of factors, such as risk awareness and trust. However, our knowledge of the interplay of these factors is limited, as is our knowledge of the patterns in risk attitudes and behaviours and their evolution over time. This study explores the interplay between attitudes and behaviours related to flood risk awareness and structural flood protection in two communities in the Eastern Italian Alps, and how they changed over time. To this end, a questionnaire was submitted to a total of 420 residents, in the year 2005 (N = 200) and 2018 (N = 220), and then analysed using Latent Class Analysis. No floods were recorded in the area during this period. The results show that there is a group of residents characterized by low risk awareness and high trust in structural flood protection. Such individuals are likely to live in urban - rather than mountain - communities and are characterized by a lack of or limited experience with floods. They are also prone to believe that such events will not happen in the future. In 2005, this group represented less than half of the sample, but its size substantially increased in 2018. This result has strong implications for local risk managers, because this group of residents is less risk aware than the others and they may deserve special attention and targeted messages in flood risk communication campaigns. This and other results are discussed, including the potential development of generalizable models to provide emergency and risk managers with tools to unveil risk awareness patterns and to tailor risk communication actions to citizens attitudes and behaviours. The paper ends with some considerations about the need not only to better understand but also to address diversity in flood risk awareness.
|
|
| 5. |
- Mazzoleni, Maurizio, et al.
(författare)
-
Water management, hydrological extremes, and society : modeling interactions and phenomena
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Ecology & Society. - : Resilience Alliance, Inc.. - 1708-3087. ; 26:4
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a system-dynamics model to simulate the interplay between water management, hydrological extremes (droughts and floods), and society. We illustrate the potential and limitations of the model with an example application to the Brisbane river basin (Australia). In particular, we test its capability to explain various phenomena that have been empirically observed, including the levee paradox, (mal)adaptation, and supply-demand cycles. To illustrate, we consider four water-management strategies: no actions, in which no measures are adopted to mitigate droughts and floods; fighting floods, in which a levee system is built and raised to cope with flooding; water conservation, in which demand management is implemented to cope with drought; and water exploitation, in which the water supply is increased to cope with drought. Our findings show that changes in flood and drought awareness can help contribute to the emergence of multiple phenomena. Moreover, the outcomes from the proposed coupled-modeling framework indicate that water-management strategies aimed at specific hydrological extremes can in turn shape the severity of opposite natural hazards. Given its explanatory value, the model can contribute to a better interpretation of changes in drought and flood risk and the role of alternative water-management strategies.
|
|
| 6. |
- Mondino, Elena, 1993-
(författare)
-
Changes in Hydrological Risk Perception and Implications for Disaster Risk Reduction
- 2021
-
Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Economic losses caused by hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, are exacerbating because of increased anthropogenic activities and global environmental changes. Understanding how individuals and communities interact with hydrological extremes thus becomes fundamental to develop effective strategies for disaster risk reduction. Risk perception plays an important role in determining how individuals and communities respond to the occurrence of an extreme event. This thesis aims at addressing aspects of risk perception that remain largely unknown. They include: i) how flood risk perceptions change over time, ii) the role of previous experiences, and iii) how the perception of flood risk relates to the perception of other natural hazards, such as droughts. The work is based on survey data collected in different study areas – both in Italy and Sweden at the local and national scales – via longitudinal as well as cross-sectional approaches. In relation to the three main objectives, this thesis found that: i) flood risk perceptions evolve differently over time depending on social groups; ii) different types of previous experiences with floods directly influence specific facets of risk perception, with knowledge deriving from the experience also playing an important role; iii) flood risk perception is heavily intertwined with drought risk perception. These results have policy and theoretical implications. Concerning the former, they can inform disaster risk reduction efforts in terms of risk communication and promote an integrated management of hydrological risk. As for the latter, they stress the importance of taking social heterogeneity into account when modelling the interaction between the social and the hydrological spheres, as this can influence the community’s response to extreme events. Fostering human adaptation to climate extremes is a priority. This thesis argues that adaptation can be achieved by promoting the awareness that not only are we at risk, but also that we have the means to address the risk.
|
|
| 7. |
- Mondino, Elena, et al.
(författare)
-
Longitudinal survey data for diversifying temporal dynamics in flood risk modelling
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Natural hazards and earth system sciences. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1561-8633 .- 1684-9981. ; 21:9, s. 2811-2828
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Scholars have unravelled the complexities and underlying uncertainties in coupled human and water systems in various fields and disciplines. These complexities, however, are not always reflected in the way in which the dynamics of human–water systems are modelled. One reason is the lack of social data time series, which may be provided by longitudinal surveys. Here, we show the value of collecting longitudinal survey data to enrich sociohydrological modelling of flood risk. To illustrate, we compare and contrast two different approaches (repeated cross-sectional and panel) for collecting longitudinal data and explore changes in flood risk awareness and preparedness in a municipality hit by a flash flood in 2018. We found that risk awareness has not changed significantly in the timeframe under study (1 year). Perceived preparedness increased only among those respondents who suffered low damage during the flood event. We also found gender differences across both approaches for most of the variables explored. Lastly, we argue that results that are consistent across the two approaches can be used for the parametrisation of sociohydrological models. We posit that there is a need to enhance the representation of socio-demographic heterogeneity in modelling human–water systems in order to better support risk management.
|
|
| 8. |
- Rangecroft, Sally, et al.
(författare)
-
Guiding principles for hydrologists conducting interdisciplinary research and fieldwork with participants
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Taylor & Francis Group. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 66:2, s. 214-225
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To explore and address complex water-related issues, true collaborative, interdisciplinary research at the interface of hydrology and social science is necessary. Accordingly, hydrologists are increasingly working with social sciences and becoming involved in fieldwork with participants. With the overarching aim of facilitating collaboration and interdisciplinary water research, here we discuss important considerations and guiding principles for hydrologists, both those new to and those already familiar with interdisciplinary research, who are: (i) involved in fieldwork with participants; and (ii) working more collaboratively with social scientists. Drawing on first-hand experiences, this paper combines theory and experience from hydrologists and social scientists from their various interdisciplinary research projects to better understand key ethical, theoretical and practical considerations when working with participants. Complementary to this, we discuss the barriers and opportunities in collaborative interdisciplinary research. Facilitating these practices and understandings for hydrologists is essential to strengthen collaboration and to develop more holistic, successful research.
|
|
