| 1. |
- White, Christopher J., et al.
(författare)
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Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions
- 2017
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Ingår i: Meteorological Applications. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1350-4827 .- 1469-8080. ; 24:3, s. 315-325
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- While seasonal outlooks have been operational for many years, until recently the extended-range timescale referred to as subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) has received little attention. S2S prediction fills the gap between short-range weather prediction and long-range seasonal outlooks. Decisions in a range of sectors are made in this extended-range lead time; therefore, there is a strong demand for this new generation of forecasts. International efforts are under way to identify key sources of predictability, improve forecast skill and operationalize aspects of S2S forecasts; however, challenges remain in advancing this new frontier. If S2S predictions are to be used effectively, it is important that, along with science advances, an effort is made to develop, communicate and apply these forecasts appropriately. In this study, the emerging operational S2S forecasts are presented to the wider weather and climate applications community by undertaking the first comprehensive review of sectoral applications of S2S predictions, including public health, disaster preparedness, water management, energy and agriculture. The value of applications-relevant S2S predictions is explored, and the opportunities and challenges facing their uptake are highlighted. It is shown how social sciences can be integrated with S2S development, from communication to decision-making and valuation of forecasts, to enhance the benefits of ‘climate services’ approaches for extended-range forecasting. While S2S forecasting is at a relatively early stage of development, it is concluded that it presents a significant new window of opportunity that can be explored for application-ready capabilities that could allow many sectors the opportunity to systematically plan on a new time horizon.
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| 2. |
- Bockelée-Morvan, D., et al.
(författare)
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Cometary Isotopic Measurements
- 2015
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Ingår i: Space Science Reviews. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0038-6308 .- 1572-9672. ; 197:1-4, s. 47-83
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Isotopic ratios in comets provide keys for the understanding of the origin of cometary material, and the physical and chemical conditions in the early Solar Nebula. We review here measurements acquired on the D/H, 14N/15N, 16O/18O, 12C/13C, and 32S/34S ratios in cometary grains and gases, and discuss their cosmogonic implications. The review includes analyses of potential cometary material available in collections on Earth, recent measurements achieved with the Herschel Space Observatory, large optical telescopes, and Rosetta, as well as recent results obtained from models of chemical-dynamical deuterium fractionation in the early solar nebula. Prospects for future measurements are presented.
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| 3. |
- Caminade, Cyril, et al.
(författare)
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Global risk model for vector-borne transmission of Zika virus reveals the role of El Nino 2015
- 2017
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 114:1, s. 119-124
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Zika, a mosquito-borne viral disease that emerged in South America in 2015, was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the WHO in February of 2016. We developed a climate-driven R-0 mathematical model for the transmission risk of Zika virus (ZIKV) that explicitly includes two keymosquito vector species: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The model was parameterized and calibrated using the most up to date information from the available literature. It was then driven by observed gridded temperature and rainfall datasets for the period 1950-2015. We find that the transmission risk in South America in 2015 was the highest since 1950. This maximum is related to favoring temperature conditions that caused the simulated biting rates to be largest and mosquito mortality rates and extrinsic incubation periods to be smallest in 2015. This event followed the suspected introduction of ZIKV in Brazil in 2013. The ZIKV outbreak in Latin America has very likely been fueled by the 2015-2016 El Nino climate phenomenon affecting the region. The highest transmission risk globally is in South America and tropical countries where Ae. aegypti is abundant. Transmission risk is strongly seasonal in temperate regions where Ae. albopictus is present, with significant risk of ZIKV transmission in the southeastern states of the United States, in southern China, and to a lesser extent, over southern Europe during the boreal summer season.
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