| 1. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2014
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 384:9947, s. 957-979
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.
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| 2. |
- Adam, Martin, et al.
(författare)
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Adult lung function and long-term air pollution exposure. ESCAPE : a multicentre cohort study and meta-analysis
- 2015
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Ingår i: European Respiratory Journal. - : European Respiratory Society (ERS). - 0903-1936 .- 1399-3003. ; 41:5, s. 38-50
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The chronic impact of ambient air pollutants on lung function in adults is not fully understood. The objective of this study was to investigate the association of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution with lung function in adult participants from five cohorts in the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE). Residential exposure to nitrogen oxides (NO2, NOx) and particulate matter (PM) was modelled and traffic indicators were assessed in a standardised manner. The spirometric parameters forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) from 7613 subjects were considered as outcomes. Cohort-specific results were combined using meta-analysis. We did not observe an association of air pollution with longitudinal change in lung function, but we observed that a 10 μg·m(-3) increase in NO2 exposure was associated with lower levels of FEV1 (-14.0 mL, 95%CI -25.8- -2.1) and FVC (-14.9 mL, 95% CI -28.7- -1.1). An increase of 10 μg·m(-3) in PM10, but not other PM metrics (PM2.5, coarse fraction of PM, PM absorbance), was associated with a lower level of FEV1 (-44.6 mL, 95% CI -85.4- -3.8) and FVC (-59.0 mL, 95% CI -112.3- -5.6). The associations were particularly strong in obese persons. This study adds to the evidence for an adverse association of ambient air pollution with lung function in adults at very low levels in Europe.
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| 3. |
- Astell-Burt, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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More green, less lonely? : A longitudinal cohort study
- 2022
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Ingår i: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press. - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 51:1, s. 99-110
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundUrban greening may reduce loneliness by offering opportunities for solace, social reconnection and supporting processes such as stress relief. We (i) assessed associations between residential green space and cumulative incidence of, and relief from, loneliness over 4 years; and (ii) explored contingencies by age, sex, disability and cohabitation status.MethodsMultilevel logistic regressions of change in loneliness status in 8049 city-dwellers between 2013 (baseline) and 2017 (follow-up) in the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia study. Associations with objectively measured discrete green-space buffers (e.g. parks) (<400, <800 and <1600 m) were adjusted for age, sex, disability, cohabitation status, children and socio-economic variables. Results were translated into absolute risk reductions in loneliness per 10% increase in urban greening.ResultsThe absolute risk of loneliness rose from 15.9% to 16.9% over the 4 years; however, a 10% increase in urban greening within 1.6 km was associated with lower cumulative incident loneliness [odds ratio (OR) = 0.927, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.862 to 0.996; absolute risk reduction = 0.66%]. Stronger association was observed for people living alone (OR = 0.828, 95% CI = 0.725 to 0.944). In comparison to people with <10% green space, the ORs for cumulative incident loneliness were 0.833 (95% CI = 0.695 to 0.997), 0.790 (95% CI = 0.624 to 1.000) and 0.736 (95% CI = 0.549 to 0.986) for 10–20%, 20–30% and >30% green space, respectively. Compared with the <10% green-space reference group with 13.78% incident loneliness over 4 years and conservatively assuming no impact on incident loneliness, associations translated into absolute risk reductions of 1.70%, 2.26% and 2.72% within populations with 10–20%, 20–30% and >30% green space, respectively. These associations were stronger again for people living alone, with 10–20% (OR = 0.608, 95% CI = 0.448 to 0.826), 20–30% (OR = 0.649, 95% CI = 0.436 to 0.966) and >30% (OR = 0.480, 95% CI = 0.278 to 0.829) green space within 1600 m. No age, sex or disability-related contingencies, associations with green space within 400 or 800 m or relief from loneliness reported at baseline were observed.ConclusionsA lower cumulative incidence of loneliness was observed among people with more green space within 1600 m of home, especially for people living alone. Potential biopsychosocial mechanisms warrant investigation.
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| 4. |
- Beelen, Rob, et al.
(författare)
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Development of NO2 and NOx land use regression models for estimating air pollution exposure in 36 study areas in Europe : the ESCAPE project
- 2013
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Environment. - : Elsevier. - 1352-2310 .- 1873-2844. ; 72, s. 10-23
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Estimating within-city variability in air pollution concentrations is important. Land use regression (LUR) models are able to explain such small-scale within-city variations. Transparency in LUR model development methods is important to facilitate comparison of methods between different studies. We therefore developed LUR models in a standardized way in 36 study areas in Europe for the ESCAPE (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects) project.Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) were measured with Ogawa passive samplers at 40 or 80 sites in each of the 36 study areas. The spatial variation in each area was explained by LUR modeling. Centrally and locally available Geographic Information System (GIS) variables were used as potential predictors. A leave-one out cross-validation procedure was used to evaluate the model performance.There was substantial contrast in annual average NO2 and NOx concentrations within the study areas. The model explained variances (R2) of the LUR models ranged from 55% to 92% (median 82%) for NO2 and from 49% to 91% (median 78%) for NOx. For most areas the cross-validation R2 was less than 10% lower than the model R2. Small-scale traffic and population/household density were the most common predictors. The magnitude of the explained variance depended on the contrast in measured concentrations as well as availability of GIS predictors, especially traffic intensity data were important. In an additional evaluation, models in which local traffic intensity was not offered had 10% lower R2 compared to models in the same areas in which these variables were offered.Within the ESCAPE project it was possible to develop LUR models that explained a large fraction of the spatial variance in measured annual average NO2 and NOx concentrations. These LUR models are being used to estimate outdoor concentrations at the home addresses of participants in over 30 cohort studies.
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| 5. |
- Beelen, Rob, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of long-term exposure to air pollution on natural-cause mortality : an analysis of 22 European cohorts within the multicentre ESCAPE project
- 2014
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 383:9919, s. 785-795
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Few studies on long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality have been reported from Europe. Within the multicentre European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE), we aimed to investigate the association between natural-cause mortality and long-term exposure to several air pollutants. Methods We used data from 22 European cohort studies, which created a total study population of 367 251 participants. All cohorts were general population samples, although some were restricted to one sex only. With a strictly standardised protocol, we assessed residential exposure to air pollutants as annual average concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with diameters of less than 2.5 mu m (PM2.5), less than 10 mu m (PM10), and between 10 mu m and 2.5 mu m (PMcoarse), PM2.5 absorbance, and annual average concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NOx), with land use regression models. We also investigated two traffic intensity variables-traffic intensity on the nearest road (vehicles per day) and total traffic load on all major roads within a 100 m buff er. We did cohort-specific statistical analyses using confounder models with increasing adjustment for confounder variables, and Cox proportional hazards models with a common protocol. We obtained pooled effect estimates through a random-effects meta-analysis. Findings The total study population consisted of 367 251 participants who contributed 5 118 039 person-years at risk (average follow-up 13.9 years), of whom 29 076 died from a natural cause during follow-up. A significantly increased hazard ratio (HR) for PM2.5 of 1.07 (95% CI 1.02-1.13) per 5 mu g/m(3) was recorded. No heterogeneity was noted between individual cohort effect estimates (I-2 p value=0.95). HRs for PM2.5 remained significantly raised even when we included only participants exposed to pollutant concentrations lower than the European annual mean limit value of 25 mu g/m(3) (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00-1.12) or below 20 mu g/m(3) (1.07, 1.01-1.13). Interpretation Long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution was associated with natural-cause mortality, even within concentration ranges well below the present European annual mean limit value.
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| 6. |
- Beelen, Rob, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term Exposure to Air Pollution and Cardiovascular Mortality An Analysis of 22 European Cohorts
- 2014
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Ingår i: Epidemiology. - : Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. - 1044-3983 .- 1531-5487. ; 25:3, s. 368-378
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Air pollution has been associated with cardiovascular mortality, but it remains unclear as to whether specific pollutants are related to specific cardiovascular causes of death. Within the multicenter European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE), we investigated the associations of long-term exposure to several air pollutants with all cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, as well as with specific cardiovascular causes of death. Methods: Data from 22 European cohort studies were used. Using a standardized protocol, study area-specific air pollution exposure at the residential address was characterized as annual average concentrations of the following: nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NOx); particles with diameters of less than 2.5 mu m (PM2.5), less than 10 mu m (PM10), and 10 mu m to 2.5 mu m (PMcoarse); PM2.5 absorbance estimated by land-use regression models; and traffic indicators. We applied cohort-specific Cox proportional hazards models using a standardized protocol. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to obtain pooled effect estimates. Results: The total study population consisted of 367,383 participants, with 9994 deaths from CVD (including 4,992 from ischemic heart disease, 2264 from myocardial infarction, and 2484 from cerebrovascular disease). All hazard ratios were approximately 1.0, except for particle mass and cerebrovascular disease mortality; for PM2.5, the hazard ratio was 1.21 (95% confidence interval = 0.87-1.69) per 5 mu g/m(3) and for PM10, 1.22 (0.91-1.63) per 10 mu g/m(3). Conclusion: In a joint analysis of data from 22 European cohorts, most hazard ratios for the association of air pollutants with mortality from overall CVD and with specific CVDs were approximately 1.0, with the exception of particulate mass and cerebrovascular disease mortality for which there was suggestive evidence for an association.
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| 7. |
- Beelen, Rob, et al.
(författare)
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Natural-Cause Mortality and Long-Term Exposure to Particle Components : An Analysis of 19 European Cohorts within the Multi-Center ESCAPE Project
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Health Perspectives. - : Environmental Health Perspectives. - 0091-6765 .- 1552-9924. ; 123:6, s. 525-533
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Studies have shown associations between mortality and long-term exposure to particulate matter air pollution. Few cohort studies have estimated the effects of the elemental composition of particulate matter on mortality. Objectives: Our aim was to study the association between natural-cause mortality and long-term exposure to elemental components of particulate matter. Methods: Mortality and confounder data from 19 European cohort studies were used. Residential exposure to eight a priori-selected components of particulate matter ( PM) was characterized following a strictly standardized protocol. Annual average concentrations of copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium, and zinc within PM size fractions <= 2.5 mu m (PM2.5) and <= 10 mu m (PM10) were estimated using land-use regression models. Cohort-specific statistical analyses of the associations between mortality and air pollution were conducted using Cox proportional hazards models using a common protocol followed by meta-analysis. Results: The total study population consisted of 291,816 participants, of whom 25,466 died from a natural cause during follow-up (average time of follow-up, 14.3 years). Hazard ratios were positive for almost all elements and statistically significant for PM2.5 sulfur (1.14; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.23 per 200ng/m(3)). In a two-pollutant model, the association with PM2.5 sulfur was robust to adjustment for PM2.5 mass, whereas the association with PM2.5 mass was reduced. Conclusions: Long-term exposure to PM2.5 sulfur was associated with natural-cause mortality. This association was robust to adjustment for other pollutants and PM2.5.
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